Will DS get any offers?

[horsemadmom]

I'm sick with worry over DS who, after a solid 3A*6A and 1B at GCSE, got BCCD at AS Level. He knows he didn't work consistantly and left revision far too late. He was remarkably consistent in achieving As and Bs in 2/3 modules of each subject and D or E on the 3rd.
The school are predicting BBC which seems a little harsh to me given that his ASs were an aberration and he is now working like a dog and will resit the papers that went so wrong.
DS is about to put in his UCAS form (with an apparently stunningly good reference from the teacher in the broader subject he wishes to study) and just doesn't see any point in applying anywhere 2nd rate. His subject is a bit of an obscure variation of a mainstream subject and it took a lot of explanation from him to the school as they've never sent anyone for this sub-subject before. DS is only applying to 3 unis as they do the subject in the way that he wants but they are all RG/similar.
The courses are asking for between AAB and BBB. One course tutor at his favourite uni pulled him aside after they chatted for most of Open Day and told him to phone on results day if he had 'slipped under their offer' no matter what it said on Track. I'm worried that he may get sifted out with his ASs and predictions and never make it to the offer stage.
So, what do you think? Will his application be budgie cage liner this year? Is a gap year inevitable? Should I push him to communicate with admissions bods at his chosen unis to explain before the UCAS form goes in?

"They have said that they will revisit his predictions before half term but I'm not sure how that works if his UCAS form must be in before then."

His UCAS form doesn't have to be in until January unless he's applying to Oxbridge or for a very few highly selective subjects (and I'm sorry to be blunt but he's almost certainly burnt his boats there with those AS grades).

He needs to talk to the UCAS person at his school if they have a school rule on very early applications for everyone, so that his new predictions can be taken into account. I'm sure they can cope with ONE kid putting their form in mid November for a valid reason.

He also needs to consider that if his predictions (and, far more important, his real grades) don't go up, he can either lower his sights, broaden the subjects he's prepared to look at, or not go to uni. He almost certainly won't get in to an RG uni with Cs and Ds, that's rather beyond "slipped under".

DD got one grade lower at A2 (ABB rather than AAB) despite working far harder.

Sorry if that's not what you wanted to hear :( But I do think you need to consider it rather than assuming those grades are the abberation. What made DD's A2 year bearable, especially the waiting for results part of it, was the DDD offer from a "second rate" uni in a lovely place which she knew was sitting there if she needed it.

Thanks for all the advice! DS is adamant that he will only apply to courses he wants at universities he wants- if that means he'll need a gap year and will re-apply with his final grades and a year of work experience in his field then so

That sounds quite sensible. It's great that he's so clear on what he wants, it sounds like he will get a great deal out of whichever course he ends up on. I hope he gets the offers / grades he needs.

I'm not sleeping any better because of his certainty. Head of 6th is being quite obstructive. He is not very well informed about the course. I've learned what supporting docs DS needs with his application and Head is not happy about sending them. No idea why!

Which supporting documents are they, OP?

My three eldest DC are currently at Uni and I'm now helping my DC4 with her application. Each time I find it soooo stressful. I think the fact that there are no longer any January exam is relevant as I'm sure there will be more surprise A2 results. At least my older DC could wait and see how the January exams went befor confirming their firm and insurance.

I also think it's relevent that the ABB student numbers cap is being removed. Surely, there is a possibility that some 'better' unis will increase their numbers with lower grade students thereby freeing up courses further down.

OP. A few admissions tutors have recently told me they simply don't look at predicted grades. Each uni seems to do it differently so I thinkit might be worth a quick call to each of the Unis that your DS is thinking of applying too.

Another thing to consider is how your DS handles stress. One of my DCs was always wildly optimistic about his grades and ended up only getting into his insurance offer by the skin of his teeth. He was unfazed by it but I think other DC would have found it way too stressful. On the other hand another of my DC only wanted to apply to places they could be very confident of getting into. It really is horses for courses.