I have no particular knowledge but wonder if this might reflect a specific issue for Scottish Universities.
Edinburgh has always been an attractive university for good English students and thus relatively hard to get into. However now:
- It is relatively expensive as it is a four year course rather than three, and English students have to pay fees.
- It is very sought after by other EU students seeking an internationally recognised education taught in English. Not least because they don't pay fees, whereas they would have to in England or Ireland.
Presumably therefore they are seeing a reduced number of English students and a significant increase in demand from students from places like Lithuania and Poland. There would then be a tendency for students from England then being squeezed out by better qualified students from elsewhere in Europe.
I assume Edinburgh does not want this. Despite support the idea that with devolution Scotland would be an EU country like any other with no particular bonds with England, I assume many within the Scottish academic system will want to maintain links with English academia, and will want to maintain a flow of good students from England. Plus students from elsewhere in the EU cost Scotland more than students from England, so there will be some desire, even if unstated, to ensure that there is a significant cohort of fee paying students.
One way to do this would be to give applicants with good predictions surprisingly low offers. These candidates then select Edinburgh as their firm or reserve choice over other similar status Russell group Universities, because Edinburgh is a good University and a great place to study.
As a wider comment, it looks as if England's top Universities are also, though probably not to the same extent, receiving large numbers of applications from very highly qualified EU applicants. (Perhaps I should not stalk student room, though hard when DS and his friends are still waiting to hear from most if not all their Universities.) On another thread, Bonsoir is bemoaning the fact that English language requirements for non English speakers are rising fast. I suspect this too may reflect cost concerns, given EU students, especially from Central Europe, are more likely to qualify for financial support, and often harder to collect from after graduation.
All speculation, but I wonder if the "marketplace" for British Education is changing really fast, and almost unnoticed, at a time when the debate within Britain seems stuck on ratios of state and private school applicants, or discouraging English students from Scottish Universities by charging them fees.
Good news for OP's DD, though.