Question for Uni admissions

[Kez100]

In 2014 my DD will be applying for Unis.

She has already visited two Open Days and both, when questioned in the course talk, said they were oversubscribed this year (2013) one said 55 places 250 applicants and the other 50 places and over 400 applicants.

Now, both courses are in clearing.

I am sure there is a perfectly reasonable explanation but is this common?

Forgive me, not uni admissions, but this is very common. The universities want the best people they can get. 400 people might apply, and only (say) 100 of them be of the standard the university wants. So the university makes 100 offers, knowing that they won't be everyone's first choice. Some of those offers will be turned down more or less immediately by students who get in elsewhere, so by the time they get to August, the university has a fair idea of how many places they have to fill - if 60 students turned them down, they have ten places, and they'll hope to pick up students in clearing who were of equal or near-equal standard to the students they originally made offers to.

I know someone who was originally turned down by Leeds and got a place there in clearing. It's not unheard of, though I think some people probably get a bit put off and choose to elsewhere than places that'd previously turned them down.

Don't forget you put 5 choices on your UCAS form too, so immediately 4 of your choices you won't go ahead with,but you still count as an applicant to those 4.

It is not uncommon to mess things up and badly over- or undershoot on students numbers. The whole thing is a bit of an inexact science, to say the least. Also, there have been a LOT of changes in university admissions in the last couple of years, and universities are still trying to figure out the implications. There's a lot more uncertainty now, and a lot more universities are going into Clearing/Adjustment.

Thanks all. Makes sense.

Kez these numbers are not unusual.

On average about 40% of students that we make an offer to will nominate us as their firm. In some years, we will get more than this and in others less. Of these 40%, about 2/3 will achieve their predicted grades.

So to fill 50 places, I make about 190 offers!

In some years this will work out perfectly, in other years it will go wrong. With two different guessing games, it is impossible for this not to happen. So even the most over-subscribed course can be left with a choice of dropping entry requirements a lot or going into clearing to fill places.

Thanks creamteas.

What happens if - say - you want 50 on the course, make 190 offers, get 80 firms and then the clever devils all get the grades? I dare say all of that coming together is rare, but it may happen every now and then. Do courses have to expand to 80; after all, they made the conditional offer or do Unis sometimes turn down students at this point - when they have met the grades and chosen it as firm?

We can't turn away anyone who has a firm or insurance and has met their offer.

Occasionally this happens, but it is unlikely to happen across the university, so other depts get deprived of clearing places that year, but the following year the over-recruiting course will have its places cut in compensation.

Very, very occasionally it goes spectacularly wrong, and then that university has to pay thousands in fines

Thanks.

Hope you've had a good guesstimate year and your crystal ball gazing worked!

Not too bad thanks. We were 90% full this morning, so just a few to get!

We overshot (hurrah for wonderful us and our clever applicants!) but other departments will under recruit so it all evens out in the end.

And it's pretty normal now for most universities to be in Clearing and Adjustment I've found excellent students that way. The main thing is on BOTH sides -- don't panic

It seems to me a fairer way: having a quite substantial clearing/adjustment process. Fairer to those that for whatever reason had an unfair prediction. I know there is always a gap year and that still might be most appropriate for many with wildly different grades but I like the thought, especially for the adjustment crowd, that they get chances to look at courses they might not have before, without a years wait if they don't want to wait.

Well If I ruled the word, everybody would apply post A-levels and preferably with a compulsory gap year(s). This would be so much better for everyone!

In my area, students who take a gap year are so much more better prepared than those coming straight from school (and often get better results). They don't have to do anything exotic either, working in Greggs would be just fine!

YYY to compulsory gap years!

You seem organised Kez. Is dd just going into sixth form? ds1 is this age and is very unsure what subject he wants to study at uni ("something vaguely sciencey ...") He certaily hasn't done any uni visits yet.

UptheChimney One of the downsides of being admissions tutor is that I spend clearing admitting people who have not had time to really think about what they are doing, when in my heart I know that they would all be better off taking a gap year.

It is madness. If it was anything else, no one would support such a rushed decision with so much at stake.

For example, imagine being gazumped and on the same day exchanging contracts on an alternative house you have never seen.....

If you divide the number of applicants by 5 you get a rough idea of how many will end up going there (assuming they make the grades) - so for the uni with 250 applicants, itll be roughly 50 applicants for 55 places, for the other its roughly 80 applicants for 50 places - both much more achievable!

My daughter has just finished year 12, so she will be applying in December 2013 to go in 2014. The reason she went to open days in the summer was because her course will be art based and she wanted to see the summer shows. She says that she would have just the one opportunity to see the work of ALL course graduates, so fitted it around open days where she could.

I see now how the numbers might work.

I agree re gap years, Creamteas. My daughter's course is quite specialised and, from her shortlist, she has already seen four Unis and written two off as not suitable. She thinks she will end up with 3, maybe 4 right fit. She will apply and, if she doesn't get in or make the grade, I am encouraging her to take a year out and improve her work and reapply/improve grades rather than jump onto one of the other courses.

Ahh, I see I have put 2014 as application date - that's because they have to be in by January, I think.

It must be difficult when they don't know exactly what type of course they want to do - you can nowadays get so much information from online prospectuses and sites like Which? University, before whittling down to a shortlist of wanting copies of the full prospectuses and then whittling down again to open day visits.

One of the downsides of being admissions tutor is that I spend clearing admitting people who have not had time to really think about what they are doing, when in my heart I know that they would all be better off taking a gap year

I've been fortunate that when I've been an Admissions Tutor, we've not been in Clearing -- high demand departments at high demand universities have their advantages ...

But it's hard to think of a situation where a gap year isn't a good idea.

Up the chimney - do you mean for all or just for those in Clearing.

The more I think about the ideas my daughter has for a gap year (her current intention is to only take a gap if she doesn't get meet any offers from the high reputation Unis) the more I feel a 2015 entry would be better for her. The ideas are not exotic but they are very, very practical. Will enhance her ability at her subject (which is vocational) and expand her self-confidence. Considering her work is likely to be freelance after University, I can't help but feel I should be encouraging her to either:

1 Apply for 2014 wit the intention of deferring and taking a gap year, or
2 Take a gap year and apply 2015

UptheChimney Pretty much everyone is in clearing now, I think there was only about 5-6 unis who stayed out.

Kez In my opinion, gap years are good for everyone. I never understood why anyone would apply for deferred entry. If you know you are taking a gap year, then apply post A levels. Choosing a uni when you have your grades is so much easier and you are more likely to get offers as there is no doubt about your ability.

I suppose if it is a course or institution that fully interviews and the gap year will be abroad?

.......then again they all take international students, so they manage to work interviews and foreign lands somehow already.

We don't routinely interview for anything, but when we do, we use Skype for international applicants.

I totally agree about the post A's application idea.

Essentially you are duplicating/handling SO much paperwork it seems to me as admissions officers, first going on AS results & predicted grades for offers & then re-jiggling when the ACTUAL results come in.

It would also mean the AS could be true mock exam,a benchmark to see where they are with plenty of time to improve. A year out to work/volunteer would help them all grow up and also give them time to really have a look at where they want to go.

Sorry for the hijack OP! Good luck to your daughter whatever she decides.