Thoughts on having an operation with a 70% chance of improvement and a 30% chance of no improvement/risk of worsening condition

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I have lost some of my central vision following a retinal bleed last year. It has improved with eye injections but I have a macular hole. I have been offered vitrectomy surgery to repair it but have been told that the chances of improvement are only 70% in my case, with a 30% of vision staying the same or worsening. I forgot to ask why the surgeon rated my chances of success lower than the 90% chance of which is stated in the materials which describe your operation, but I think it is to do with size of the retinal bleed that I along with extreme shortsightedness.

Into the mix, I am seeing orthoptics department for strabismus (double vision) and the ophthalmologist has already indicated I might benefit from an operation to improve it in due course. I don’t think the intravetreal surgeon has even factored this in as he didn’t really seem aware of it when I mentioned it.

The surgeon isn’t pushing me into a decision either one way or the other but it has to be me that decides. What would you decide with odds of 70/30?

i Don’t know much about your particular condition but are both your eyes currently affected to the same extent? Do they do one eye at a time? Will it get worse without this treatment? 70% chance of improvement 30 % chance of staying the same or getting worse ( how much of the 30% is likely to be the getting worse chance)? Statistics only mean so much tbh it could be 99% effective and you could still be the 1 person with an adverse outcome.
Can you ask for a 2nd opinion does your Opthamologist or optician know you well, know your eye history better could you talk through the options with you? At the end of the day with all elective surgery the ultimate choice is going to be yours but I would want as much information available to me as possible. I have an amazing optician I have been seeing for about 30yrs and he sees other family members.
i have been extremely short sighted all my life with a few other eye problems, I have members of my extended family who are blind and I have lived in fear of losing my sight all my life. I developed cataracts which are nothing really for most people, my eyesight deteriorated drastically I was warned that with my eye issues I was more likely to have complications than most people ( not given a %) and lose the sight in the eye, I was terrified but as I was going to lose my sight anyway it made the choice easier. 1st eye I actually shook with fear the whole time which was tricky when you are supposed not to move at all ( for fear it wouldn’t work and with my other eye deteriorating) it worked fine and I was totally relaxed for the 2nd eye because I knew if that went wrong at least I had 1 good eye.

@Juiceinacup Thanks. I will ask my optician who is great and might well have an opinion. My other eye is fine so the operation is just one eye.

Didn't want to read and run. I know nothing about your particular issue but if possible I would ask him your questions about why you're not more than 70% compared to the literature, ask him ref the double vision issue and whether this affects his advice and also I would see in the nicest possible way if you can get a 2nd opinion as well to see if perhaps he is - apologies can't think how to word this " more gung ho" or " more "erring on cautious side"

One of my neighbours was given stats of 95% chance of improvement (from 2 sources) of a fairly routine surgery (not eyes) but sadly she ended up in the 5% who it doesn't help at all

a further question that may help:

in the future will there be further degeneration in vision? Is so do the stats remain the same or is the outcome likely to worsen?

I think even if you’re coping now with the level off sight loss, if it does worsen how will you feel? Would you rather risk the surgery now and try to save what you have, or wait until your vision is so bad you might as well give the surgery a go, even if waiting means a worse overall outcome…

iyswim…

I agree with pp. If it's 30% chance of no improvement. How much of that is the chance of it getting worse.

If it was 70% improvement and only 5% worse that's a very different offering. I would wonder if the surgeon was being conservative too in case it doesn't go well.

Agree re second opinion.