Ebola now in the States : (

[BeachyKeen]

I don't see any other threads on this so far, sorry if there is already one.
So this afternoon/evening, it was announced there is the first case of diagnosed-in the-States Ebola.
Story here in the bbc link
From my understanding, the only risk is direct contact with the body fluids, at this point.
I do worry that with more and more opportunities, there will be a higher chance that the virus mutates to become air born.
Is this making anyone else nervous?

No.

It was diagnosed in the States, but the patient had recently returned from Liberia. Many other ebola patients are being treated in US hospitals.

I don't think you quite understand how viruses work - what do you mean by 'more opportunities'?

I'm so shocked by the complete over reaction of people here about ebola - so much scaremongering in the media, it's ridiculous.

It's not the first time that there is Ebola in the States.

The virus itself is not very resistant and becoming airborne requires many changes. You really shouldn't worry.

I mean with each case, the virus replicates. Every time it replicates, there is a chance for it to replicate with errors. This increases the chance that it could mutate to become air born.
In the past, there have been limits to the chances for this, because there were so few cases. Now that the number of cases is higher, the chance of a mutation is higher.

I don't mean that by being in the States it is more likely, just that it is a new stage in the spread.

If anything the virus is milder this time. The death rate is much lower than in previous outbreaks.

I know it has been in the US before, but this is the first case to be diagnosed there.
In previous cases, they knew the person was sick, before they arrived. They had procedures in place.
In this case, the person arrived, then was diagnosed.

Yes I am worried but I suffer from anxiety and have been worried about ebola for a while now. This person was back in the US for 8 days before being isolated, despite seeking treatment 4 days after arrival. Chances are he has infected others. I hope they can trace everyone he has been in contact with and stop it in its tracks.

There aren't those many cases.
Just over 6 thousand.

Aids has been for longer and HIV isn't airborne yet.

Also the death rate has been revised to 70% so it isn't really lower than the average at all.

viruses become less lethal over time usually

Why are you worried about 1 case in the states. 3000 people have died of it in west Africa

Beachy, with you on this.

Lweji, head lice are not airbourne, require direct contact, but they seem to do OK.

Suzanne. only if the host species survives.

Nigeria and Senegal have had no new cases since August

Good news, so far/

As I understand it you should be more worried by MERS. Which some poor soul caught from a camel.

Ebola is only an epidemic if you don't have modern healthcare. The victims were unfortunate enough to live in a less developed country.

Worry more about measles. It kills 100,000+ every year.

Lweji, head lice are not airbourne, require direct contact, but they seem to do OK

That is a silly reply.
I never said Ebola needs to be airborne to be successful. Just replying that becoming airborne is not likely to people who are worried.
and that the numbers infected so far are too small to have a huge impact on its genetics.
I'm worried about people in Africa without proper health systems and with very low education. Not so much about developed countries or a global threat.
But even malaria kills more. And diseases you've never heard of.

lwegi "And diseases you have never heard of"

For last 15 years I have put H5N1 (or another type A oxthomyxovirus) as biggest risk to me and the human species. What other infectious disease(s) concern you?

Captain I got measles young, survived, our children all got MMR and I had booster (at 50) because my rubella titre was low and I was in (professional) contact with children and pregnant mums.. At the time most (nonmedical) parents with whom we were in contact were more interested what we (me and a GP) had done for DC than the choices of Tony Liar.

But IMHO the biggest child killer worldwide is malaria, I take protection, and should it fail, I have a couple of treatment course with me.

I'm not concerned that any disease will wipe out the human species, and I work in the field.

I mentioned diseases that kill more per year than Ebola has so far.

"WHO estimates that cysticercosis affects some 50 million people worldwide and, in endemic areas, causes some 50 000 deaths"
Leishmaniasis - "An estimated 1.3 million new cases and 20 000 to 30 000 deaths occur annually."

There is indeed a threat to the affected African countries atm, including that the numbers of infected will rise up, but not that humans will be wiped out.
Small populations could be all killed, but not a species with 7 billion people and awareness of how the disease is transmitted.

Pathogens with high mortality tend to die out or become less virulent. HIV itself takes about 10 years to develop symptoms, which is a very long incubation period for a disease. That is why it can be a killer.

Most highly virulent pathogens survive in natural hosts, where they are much milder or are not pathogenic at all.

Dratsea - you got measles and survived; OK. Lots of people don't, or they get blinded, or some other handicap. I'm thinking 3rd world countries here.

People get Ebola and survive. It still only kills in hundreds, not hundreds of thousands.

I do worry about MERS, it is also freaky.
I know the flu kills more people.
What I am worried about in this instance is that the sick person was able to travel, go to a doctor, and it wasn't caught the first time.
It makes me aware of just how easy it could have spread.I know that I am far more risk crossing a street than of catching Ebola. I am not worried about getting it myself, more worried about the on going developing situation.
And when it comes to viruses mutating, it isn't like they announce they will mutate at a certain number, it just happens. That unnerves me.
You don't know if it will be the first mutation, or the four thousandth one, there is no way to predict.

OP

Research how many people die for flu every year.

Research how many people die from Ebola each year.

Go and get a flu jab.

Stop worrying

you are completely irrational. Why are you suddenly frightened by 1 American having it? But make no mention of the 4,000 + Africans who have got the disease. Both different continents. Don't Africans register with you?

And when it comes to viruses mutating, it isn't like they announce they will mutate at a certain number, it just happens. That unnerves me.
You don't know if it will be the first mutation, or the four thousandth one, there is no way to predict

You are massively overestimating the ability of Ebola to become airborne, and to spread via air.

It would need to acquire not just mutations but whole new gene packages that allow it to survive in air. It would need to acquire the ability to infect the respiratory tract. It would need to be able to shed from the respiratory tract. All these events must represent an adaptive advantage to the virus.

No human virus has EVER changed its mode of transmission, and virologists are not worried that Ebola will prove to be the exception.

Of course they register with me! The point I was making was that it went from being contained to one continent, to no longer being contained there.
I know there are likely many more than just the 4000 the have claimed so far, and that the real numbers are not known.
I guess we have been told over and over, it wont happen here, if anyone came in, it would be caught right away.
Being worried about a situation changing doesn't mean I don't feel terrible for those already impacted!
And I do get the flu shot.
I know more people die of the flu.It kills 5000 a year here.
I can worry about more than one thing at a time.