The future of Reform?

[iloveallthis]

Caveat: My knowledge of politics is limited

I have read in the papers lots about labour getting a lot of seats for not a huge amount of votes. Also a lot of comments around Reform having achieved very few seats for the considerable number of votes that they got.

One political commentator has suggested that this tells us a lot about the next general election and how reform will achieve a lot more next time out with better vote management.

I am just wondering how likely that is? Surely if labour makes a good job of governing and with Reform only having 5 MP's including Nigel Farage how much impact can they really have?

It would seem to me that if labour can come up with a decent immigration solution then Reform won't have the same attraction in the future.

Also if the Conservatives managed to pull themselves up and get a competent person in charge surely they would have as much impact at the next election as Reform?

What I really hope though is that Keir Starmer does sort out the NHS, Prisons, Poverty strategy, immigration etc etc and life improves for us all because I can't imagine it would if Reform became the next government.

I just posted elsewhere that UKIP got almost 4 million votes and 13% of the vote share in 2015 (though it only got them one seat then). Nine years later - after the failure of Brexit - Reform take 4 million votes and 14% of the vote share, which gives them 5 seats this time. Reform are UKIP rebranded and they've brought the same voters with them, in the same numbers. Farage hasn't managed to attract any more hearts and minds to his cause than he had in 2015.

It all depends on what Labour do - if they are able to make people feel a material difference in their lives, that will take away some of Reform's appeal.

Farage doesn't offer solutions - he exploits people's frustration and discontent. But he was able to sidestep any responsibility for the crashing and inevitable failure of Brexit. He can blame the Tories for it going wrong. Now he's an MP and party leader - he has to be accountable. And I don't think he is capable of delivering on what he promises. He'll rail against FPTP and the press and whoever else he can try and pin the blame for his own inadequacies and maybe that will work for some people but I think this time in the sunlight will show him for what he is.

The danger with Reform is that they pull the Conservatives further right. They didn't have an immigration policy really. Their plans to take asylum seekers back to France was unworkable and they wanted to cut down on immigration, not by an awful lot.

Reform operates on dog whistle politics which is why they attracted so many dubious candidates. Their manifesto was uncosted and unachievable. They have no long term solutions on cutting down on immigration such as training and investment.

However you may see the Conservatives adopting some of their policies in order to appease the hard right.

Thank you for your reply that is a useful insight.

That's a fascinating statistic - I wish the media talked more about that. It's also reassuring that Farage isn't attracting more people with his ranting.

It doesn't make for such an exciting story! And it doesn't fit Farage's narrative of some unstoppable rise that he wants to portray - that's one thing he is very good at, framing a story and hammering it into the public consciousness. When the truth is, he and Labour are in a position now where they need to win people over the course of the next five years. Farage will be screaming fire and brimstone; Starmer prefers an unshowy and steady approach.

I think time is on Starmer's side - he can make gains and give the country a respite from the squalid volatility of the Tory government while he moves forward. Reform have to try to keep their own party members from saying overtly racist and terrible things out loud and that's a battle they've been losing so far.

Hopefully Reform will show themselves for who they are, it’ll just take time. Are they really going to be adequate constituent MPs for example? Is Farage really going to resist the pull of US politics come the run up to November?

Reform are not a political party, as i understand it. So does that make them technically independents who can do their own thing?

Sir Kier has complained under the previous government…
‘It’s one rule for them and another for everyone else’

Each individual Labour voter has been given rights to representation that are around 35 times greater than each individual that voted for Reform.

If Reform had been given those same rights comparable to votes received, they would have had over a quarter of the seats in parliament, around 172.

Is each Labour voter actually 35 times more entitled than each individual Reform voter, or is it one rule for them - I guess from some replies it may be considered fair, democratic representation perhaps only reserved for their acolytes, even though Reform splitting the vote handed Labour many additional seats.

If we compare Labours landslide victory as a single round on percentage of votes with France. Then the National Rally party would now be sitting on a comparable landslide victory (in fact more of an achievement when we compare their decades high turnout to us almost matching our lowest turnout in a century).

I think Sir Kier is no less prone to what is disrespectfully termed dog whistle politics than any other politician. I think to refer to the failure of Brexit is subjective, however many times you repeat it as a fact.

Much of the Reform vote was a protest against the Tories who promised the earth and delivered nothing. Even if PR was brought in, it may well be like the French system - and we all know what happened to the far right on Sunday. When push comes to shove, people play safe with their votes.

It all depends what people consider ‘safe’. The EU’s main movers wanted a European Army. Is that safe? Is the racism in the far left in French politics safe. Again on a high turnout, French NR party achieved almost identical vote share to Labour’s Landslide victory.

For balance Labour’s landslide victory was won on the back of just 20% of the electorate voting for Labour (that is just 1 in 5) - (In fact Jeremy Corbyn got considerably more votes in his 2019 loss)

2024 election is only the 2nd time in a century that 40% or more of potential voters stayed at home.

Things can change rapidly once the party in power has to deliver to satisfy such a wide range of often diametrically opposed voter objectives. Rather than a campaign based on criticising those in power and studiously avoiding saying anything to put any potential voters off.

There was a lot of tactical voting. People lending their votes to other parties to get the Tories out.

I think it's impossible to compare our election results with France's - or with the hypothetical PR scenario - because I think IF we had PR then...

a) Labour's election strategy would have been different and they are unlikely to have put so much focus onto tipping the key margical seats needed for a win, to the detriment of others

and

b) people may have voted differently - it's easier to vote for a party you like but know have impractical policies, if the chance of them getting the power to enact them is very low.

So it's not really comparing apples to apples. We'll never really know what the outcome would have been under PR.

OfVeracity, I think a European army would be the safest option, as it would be mightier than either Russia, China or the US.

I've no objection to a European army either, I never understood why that was such a big deal. Seems like a sensible idea.

And yes, millions voted for the Lib Dems, Greens, or even Reform to get the Tories out. I voted Lib Dem because I wanted a Labour government, but Labour historically do badly here. It worked - we now have a Lib Dem MP, and one less Tory. Hoorah! If we had PR I would of course vote Labour.

Unless things change drastically (I'm talking war/famine/huge natural disaster) I don't believe this country will increase its far-right vote significantly. There has always been a very loud minority of about 15% of voters who vote for the furthest right party. UKIP were the BNP sanitised, then the Brexit Party, and now Reform. It's the same people every time. And I think Farage shot himself in the foot rather by having so many candidates, as it became clear very quickly what type of person was standing for Reform. Ours said autistic children are 'vegetables'...

But we don't operate on vote share, we have FPTP. And when that returned a massive majority for Boris Johnson, nobody on the right was complaining, but now that it's working for Labour it's suddenly bad... We had a lot of tactical voting this is how it works.

Under PR, Reform would have had 92 seats, not 174.

In France, the second round was used for tactical voting to keep NR from getting a majority. And under their electoral system, that is completely legitimate, but yep... cue the right complaining about it.

The lesson is: choose your electoral system, take what it throws at you, don't whine.

Err no actually it wouldn’t.

True, it wouldn't - but shared resources, strategic collaboration and an international mindset would certainly help in terms of its effectiveness. Of course the UK would be excluded from all of that.

If it came on top seriously China, NK, and Russia would wipe us out in a heartbeat.

were totally outgunned.

NATO are straw men with big mouths and it’ll be obvious soon enough.

China have just installed troops in Belarus.

Its coming.

I think you will find much of that already occurred and still does. They were talking about a “true European army”. Also about building Africa in the EUs image, is it me or is that really self aggrandising and rather patronising to the massive continent of Africa. I had hoped colonialism was in the past, not alive and well and being promulgated by the EU.

I think power building, like a true European Army a very dangerous prospect, although probably not to the EUs joint enemies (by the time everyone has agreed who they are and what action should be taken).

Nigel Farage, the Glorious Leader, didn't show up for the first day of Parliament today. Taking the job seriously already.

So he’s living in your head rent free then.

I think to refer to the failure of Brexit is subjective, however many times you repeat it as a fact.

Are you able to say why you think Brexit has been a success, and in particular, what Farage specifically, did to help it be such a success?

Just noticing his commitment to his constituents. I expect he'll be there about as often as Mad Nads was.