Election prediction thread.

[verdantverdure]

Anybody wanna stick their neck out and say how they think it's gonna go down on July 4th?

I think Keir Starmer might have a bigger majority than Tony Blair purely on the anecdotal basis that people I think of as dyed in the wool Tories keep shocking me by saying things like "Ugh. Shambles. Waste. Debt. Nothing to show for it, country's a wreck. Can't vote for them this time."

I've just been looking at the electoralcalculus and the economist websites at the election predictions. They are suggesting my constituency is going red next week and I just cannot ever see this being possible. For context, since its creation in 1885, it has always been blue (well, except for 1929-1931 when it went liberal). It is the classic Tory stronghold where the current MP doesn't even have to campaign because it is such a safe seat.
The idea of it turning red is bloody laughable.

So, who knows? I think it's anyone's to gain. I definitely don't think it will be as large a majority as they are predicting though

Bigger than 1997 for sure. I’m a Labour activist and feedback is Tories have run out of road. The change message resonates. The main barriers are getting people out to vote due to a feeling of despair and distrust. We have boundary changes which on paper make our seat more marginal but when I’ve gone round these new wealthy areas people are smiling and receptive to me. Bring it on !!

You could double check with all 11 of the main polls here: inglesp.github.io/apogee/

I don't know fast's wrong with Electoral Calculus but it looks wrong to me. I don't trust it at all.

The Economist one applies a uniform swing to all seats but unless you've had boundary changes or demographic changes then local knowledge probably knows better.

Who's campaigning hard? That's a good indicator.

Yeah. I hear that a lot. The younger people in the expensive houses with degrees are more likely to be Labour voters or at least receptive to considering it.

(My OH is knocking on doors for Labour in a nearby marginal.)

Thank you for this, this has made my Saturday night! Sad, I know. I've just spent ages looking up our and neighbouring constituencies and boring DH with them. I'm trying to convince him it is actually worth voting Labour in our previously 68% Conservative constituency. A shocking number of those polls support this.

Labour 439
Lib Dem 87
Conservative 63
SNP 34
Plaid Cwmru 5
Green 3
Reform 3
Others 16

A comfortable Labour majority, erring towards the very comfortable.

Of those seats won by the Tories none have a 5 figure majority.

The only fly in my ointment is a nagging doubt about turnout.

I’m impressed with the precise figures. Should I bet on them?
For the purposes of this thread, I’ll go with the above but the Conservatives will get 87 and Lib Dem’s 63.
Stephen Bush said the biggest shock in Westminster would be the polls actually being correct (about the Tory wipeout).
Lib Dem opposition would be interesting. Would they move right or left?

It definitely is. Half the Cabinet might not be re-elected The Prime Minister might not be re-elected.

There’s a place called Aldershot where we have some family that has never elected anything but a Tory MP. This week though…Apparently it’s one to watch.

My opinion is that the Tories will get three figures, just a question of whether that ends up being lower than in 1906 or not.

I'd ideally like them in third place with fewer seats than the Lib Dems, but now doubt that will happen.

It can happen if enough people vote tactically to get the Tories out. There are loads of really close seats and very few Tory safe seats these days. (Like 12!)

If the party you’d like to vote for can’t win your constituency then vote for the party that can and help them beat the Tory.

‘a place called Aldershot’ makes me smile.

I fully believe that Labour will win a majority but I would be very surprised if it was a super-majority.

I live in a Conservative seat which is highly likely to go to Labour - but I am not seeing a lot of enthusiasm for either Party. There have been some boundary changes which mean that the seat is now more competitive for Labour. Likewise the seat to the South is now a very safe Conservative seat, blue in every opinion Poll.

My biggest hope is that Reform do not get any seats and that the Reform vote share is less than 10%.

So my prediction is:-

Reform - 0
Labour - 360
Conservative - 150
Liberal - 80
Plaid Cwmru - 3
Green - 2
Others - 20
SNP - 35

Reports are it’s finally tightening a bit…

I predict a low turnout of low 60%'s maybe just below 60%, compared to 67% last time.

Other than wanting the Tories out there is no other real desire to vote Labour and many are increasingly disillusioned with all parties

I didn't know if people know it.

We were a military family and we have family living all over the south of England so it's familiar to us but I isn't want to assume that it was to anyone else

But it’s so famous it’s a verb! At least according to Rudyard Kipling:

‘You may talk o’ gin and beer
When you’re quartered safe out ’ere,
An’ you’re sent to penny-fights an’ Aldershot it‘

I suppose the D Day gaffe won’t have gone down well in Aldershot.

I bet it didn't.

I had no idea Aldershot was a verb.

I'll be sharing that on the family WhatsApp later

Aldershot went Labour!