Can Predicted Grades (PG) Go DOWN

[BringOn2021]

DC completed yr12 end of year exams with provisional PGs AAA which surprised us as they actually achieved A*BC in the actual exam. (All stem subjects).

At the start of yr13 another mock is done to allow students to improve their PG before UCAS applications are submitted.

DC was hoping to up their PG to AAA but ended up with mock results ACC.

They are devastated and now worried their PGs will be adjusted down, even though they were told last year that they can only go up from the provision grades given.

Has this ever happened to anyone?

Each school runs their predicted grade process differently, so it's likely to depend on your school. Does your DC think they can realistically get AAA? Are they applying to a good spread of unis ? I would recommend that given the most recent exams are ACC. Historically, only around 20 % of DC actually get their predicted grades. Good luck.

If the predicted grades are on UCAS, then they can't be changed- otherwise they can be changed at the discretion of teachers. Your child probably needs to talk to their subject lecturers and find out what their current predicted grades are.

Have they submitted their UCAS application? If so, the grades can’t be altered but if it’s not yet been submitted then they can be altered.
Even if AAA is now in the system they should definitely consider an insurance with grades closer to their mock results (BBB perhaps?). Some unis still offer if grades are missed, others are less likely - also course dependent. It’ll be worth your DC/you exploring these. But they do need to be 100% happy in their choices as not everyone gets their first choice.

Hi, @NotDonna no, grade hasn’t been submitted on ucas yet and DC spoke to teachers last week and it seems other factors are considered, e.g. topic tests, gcse results etc in the PG. Teacher has reassured DC their PG won’t go up but equally, won’t go down which is very reassuring as it will allow a few aspirational unis to be placed on their ucas. I am conscious DC needs to have a strong insurance so the hunt for the right Uni is on. The last thing I want for DC is to have to deal with clearing. Any suggestions what unis would be good for a STEM degree as an insurance?

So are his aspirational AAA? And insurance ABB?

Thinking Warwick aspirational A*AA and yes something along the lines of AAB/ABB insurance. Question I have though, is it totally pointless going above predicted and using one slot?

Oh it’s hard isn’t it? Does he honestly think he can nail AstarAA?
Often PGs are best possible on a good day so his teachers obviously think he can achieve AAA on a good day. Some schools have a rule about not predicting Astars unless pretty much guaranteed - others will do ‘on a good day’ with the stars.
I think DC need to be honest with themselves about where they are at and how realistic those predicted grades are. I also think they need to consider how happy they’d be to go through clearing and/or take a gap year. Although DC can apply to five they can only choose 2.
DD was predicted AAA but in her heart of hearts thought she could achieve that on a good day but equally achieve BBB on a not so great day. She seemed to be on the cusp / bounce around the grade boundaries for all 3 subjects. Therefore her firm was AAB and insurance ABB - she got AstarBB, the firm (Bath) did not offset the Astar against a B, despite it being in the subject, so she went to her insurance (York).

Definitely not pointless, but Warwick will not offer AAA unless DC has contextual circumstances or something else to offer. It’s very likely that if they do offer it’ll be A*AA or higher. Remember that the grades published are minimum and plenty of ppl will be applying with higher grades. But absolutely not a waste of a slot if it’s somewhere they really want. He’ll still need to get the grades though.

That’s brilliant advice and in my heart of hearts where I think DC should aiming. I didn’t do well in school and am trying desperately not to have any of my own negative failings impact DCs positive mindset. As it is only the one throw away, I think I might pick my battles and let that slide and make sure the other 4 options are more focussed around DCs PG and below!

Yes, definitely let him decide. Also discuss insurance options honestly when it comes to choosing firm & insurance. The latter must be somewhere DC still want to go. Or be very happy to go through clearing or take a gap year.
As I mentioned upthread DD May have got BBB on a bad day but 1)nowhere offered BBB, 2)she didn’t fancy anywhere that offered BBC 3) thought she’d be selling herself short if BBC was her insurance given PG AAA.
And I get that. She decided that in worse case scenario she’d consider clearing but would likely take a gap and think about resits or something. So it’s likely your DC won’t want a too low insurance option either.