I was due to fly home to my children tomorrow/today, instead I am flying to Kabul. We warned the US so many times not to make a deal with the Taliban, to ditch the Qataris. All fell on deaf ears. I cannot put words to how ludicrous it is to hear statements about the Taliban ‘deciding their place in the international system.’ People fundamentally misunderstand the situation: they don’t care about UN votes or German aid.
Over the next few weeks, we will lay our networks for the future, invest in our informants (human and otherwise) and get out everyone we can without drawing attention to those people. And then we will be back one day, and probably create the same sorry mess, until someone listens to counterinsurgency specialists and realises victory is achieved through investment in institutions that will take real National commitment. I think it is worth doing: for the women, for terror prevention, for countering narcotics, for managing Russian and Chinese influence.
Oh, and the next meeting I go into where a person says the ANA were useless, I’m liable to explode. They get to explain how to build a military capable of doing what the US couldn’t on $88.32bn. It sounds like a lot, but it’s a drop in the goddamn ocean; compounded by lackluster training efforts and the absence of effective HR leading to a complete breakdown of trust.