BrexitMegaThread - part 15

[GlobeTrotter2000]

Could the UK/EU’s failure to control immigration be a silver lining for their failure to maintain their defences in light of US indication they will not get involved if there is further aggression by Russia?

My 60th birthday is not far away 😆

Brexit, the decision by the United Kingdom to leave the European Union (EU), remains one of the most contentious and transformative political decisions in recent British history. Despite the fervent campaigns led by those advocating for the UK's departure from the EU, in hindsight, many argue that Brexit has proven to be an extremely flawed and damaging choice for a multitude of reasons. It is not just a case of an ill-fated decision; it is a misguided vision that has set the UK back in ways that were underestimated, and in some cases, entirely ignored, during the referendum.

1. Economic Consequences: A Decline in Trade and Investment

One of the most significant arguments against Brexit lies in its negative economic impact. The immediate fallout of the referendum vote in June 2016 was a sharp devaluation of the British pound, which signaled an initial decline in confidence among investors. The pound has since struggled to regain its previous levels, particularly against the euro and the US dollar. This is not merely a symbolic loss; it translates into real-world consequences, with the cost of imports rising, and inflation affecting ordinary citizens who found their purchasing power eroded. But perhaps the most enduring issue is the disruption to trade. The European Union has long been the UK's largest trading partner, accounting for approximately 40% of British exports before Brexit. By leaving the single market, the UK severed itself from a trade bloc that facilitated tariff-free movement of goods and services. The introduction of new customs checks, border controls, and administrative burdens has led to significant delays in goods crossing borders. Businesses, particularly those in industries reliant on just-in-time supply chains like automotive manufacturing, have faced severe challenges. Customs checks and rules of origin documentation have added immense red tape, resulting in higher costs and inefficiencies. Beyond the short-term costs, the long-term effect of Brexit on trade is the structural shift that has occurred in the UK's economic relations. Many UK companies, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), have found themselves excluded from the European market, unable to capitalize on the seamless trade that was once a hallmark of EU membership. Meanwhile, businesses in the EU are increasingly less likely to establish operations in the UK, with the EU's single market offering far more attractive conditions for trade and investment. Financial services, a cornerstone of the UK's economy, have also been hit hard. The loss of "passporting rights," which allowed UK-based financial firms to operate freely across the EU, has forced many institutions to relocate operations to EU cities such as Frankfurt, Dublin, and Paris. The result is a gradual erosion of London's dominance as a global financial hub, with some estimates suggesting that the city has lost tens of thousands of jobs as a result of Brexit.

1. Political Turmoil and Instability

The political consequences of Brexit have been equally profound. It is impossible to talk about Brexit without acknowledging the deep divide it has created within the UK. The referendum exposed a stark divide between different regions, generations, and social classes. Scotland, for example, voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU, while England and Wales voted to leave. This has intensified calls for Scottish independence, as many Scots feel increasingly alienated from a political union that now finds itself disconnected from the EU. The prospect of a second Scottish independence referendum, which was once considered improbable, is now a distinct possibility. The divisions brought about by Brexit have also deeply affected the UK's political landscape. The referendum was marked by an unprecedented level of political polarization, which has not dissipated. Rather than uniting the country behind a vision of a new, independent UK, Brexit has entrenched political fragmentation. The rise of populist rhetoric, fueled by Brexit, has led to a breakdown in civil discourse, with political leaders engaging in blame-shifting rather than seeking collaborative solutions. The Tory Party itself has been consumed by infighting over the terms of Brexit, leading to the resignation of multiple prime ministers and a revolving door of leadership. This instability has, in turn, damaged the UK's international reputation, leaving it with a sense of unpredictability. Brexit has also placed the UK in a difficult position on the world stage. Once a leader in Europe, the UK now finds itself on the periphery of European decision-making. Without the influence of EU membership, the UK is no longer able to shape EU policy to its benefit. As the EU continues to expand and evolve, the UK's absence means that it risks being sidelined in discussions on critical issues such as climate change, trade, and international security.

1. Impact on Northern Ireland: A Fragile Peace at Risk

One of the most significant unintended consequences of Brexit has been the impact on Northern Ireland. The Good Friday Agreement, which brought an end to decades of conflict between nationalist Catholics and unionist Protestants, was underpinned by the UK's membership in the EU. The EU played a crucial role in facilitating cross-border cooperation, economic ties, and political stability in Northern Ireland. The introduction of a hard border between Northern Ireland (which is part of the UK) and the Republic of Ireland (which remains in the EU) is one of the most contentious issues of Brexit. While both the UK and the EU initially agreed to avoid a hard border, the creation of the Northern Ireland Protocol in 2019 resulted in a de facto border in the Irish Sea, effectively separating Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK in terms of customs and trade. This has led to significant tensions, particularly among unionists, who view the protocol as a threat to Northern Ireland's place in the United Kingdom. While the risk of renewed violence is not imminent, the fragility of peace in Northern Ireland cannot be overstated. The Brexit process has undermined the delicate balance of power in the region, with many fearing that the shifting dynamics could destabilize the progress made over the past two decades.

1. Social Consequences: Division, Xenophobia, and Erosion of Rights

Brexit has also had a significant social impact on the UK. Perhaps one of the most worrying aspects of the Brexit campaign was the rise in xenophobic sentiment. The "Take Back Control" slogan, which dominated the Leave campaign, was often framed in terms of regaining control over immigration. This rhetoric fed into a narrative of fear and division, with immigrants – particularly those from Eastern Europe – becoming scapegoats for societal problems. The result has been an increase in hate crimes and a more hostile environment for migrants. EU nationals living in the UK have faced uncertainty about their future, with many reporting feelings of fear and alienation in the aftermath of the vote. The Windrush scandal, which saw the wrongful detention and deportation of long-standing Commonwealth citizens, only added to the sense that Brexit was accompanied by a retreat from multiculturalism and a more inclusive society. Moreover, the rights of UK citizens have been undermined by Brexit. The UK no longer participates in EU-wide human rights protections, such as the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union. Workers' rights, consumer protections, and environmental standards, all of which were reinforced by EU membership, have come under threat. The UK government's post-Brexit agenda has sought to deregulate and roll back protections, prioritizing economic growth over the welfare of citizens.

1. Global Impact: Isolationism and Diminished Influence

Brexit also signifies a broader shift towards isolationism. By leaving the EU, the UK abandoned one of the most powerful and influential blocs in the world. It is true that the UK has sought to strengthen its relationships with other nations, such as the United States, India, and Australia, but these attempts have largely proven to be symbolic rather than substantive. The UK no longer has the clout that it once wielded as a member of the EU, and the global economy has shifted in ways that make the UK seem less central to the world's most important economic and geopolitical discussions. While the UK hoped to negotiate favorable trade deals with countries around the world, the reality has been a much slower process than anticipated. Many of the trade deals the UK has managed to secure post-Brexit are far less advantageous than the deals it had as part of the EU. Furthermore, the UK's ability to play a leading role in addressing global challenges, such as climate change, pandemics, and international conflict, has been severely diminished. Conclusion: The Long Road Ahead In conclusion, Brexit was a decision driven by a complex mix of nationalism, populism, and misinformation. The promise of reclaiming sovereignty and restoring national pride has, for many, proven to be a hollow victory. The economic costs are undeniable, the political turmoil continues, and the social fabric of the UK has been deeply strained. The long-term damage to the UK's international standing and its relationship with Europe will take decades to repair, if it is even possible. Brexit has illustrated a critical lesson: in an increasingly interconnected world, isolationism is not the solution. Rather than empowering the UK, Brexit has weakened it, placing it at the mercy of global forces it is no longer well-equipped to influence. The idea that the UK could "go it alone" was an illusion, and the reality is a nation grappling with deep uncertainty, profound division, and the painful consequences of a decision that many now view as one of the worst in its modern history.

@FabulosaTurquoise

Not sure how your post (which I suspect is a cut and paste from a previous paper or document) relates to the original question. However, here goes;

Article 50 was triggered by an act of Parliament on 29 March 2017 by a majority of 498 MPs in favour of leave compared to 113 MPs in favour or remain. This rendered the outcome of the referendum held in 2016 becoming obsolete.

Exchange Rates

Data taken from xe.com 10 year trends reveals the following:

The value of the £ compared to € fell from 1.35 to 1.11 over the period Feb 2015 to 31 December 2020. From 1 January 2021 (after the transition period, it has increased from 1.11 to 1.2 by end of 2024.

Against the US$, the £ has a rollercoaster ride, but a notable decline since Trump came into power.

Since 31 December 2020, the US$ has increased from 0.82 € to 0.96 € by end of 2024.

So, since the end of the transition period 31 December 2020, both the US$ and £ have gained against the €.

Trade.

The TCA made between the EU and UK only applies to goods. Services, which make up 81% of UK GDP and 83% of UK employment are not affected.

UK export of services are up 25% since Brexit, whilst EU share of service exports to the UK have declined from one half to one third in 5 years.

Source: UK ONS April 2023.

Passport Rights

UK citizens can be present for 90 day per 180 in the EU. So, fly in Monday and fly out Thursday is 3 nights per week. At that rate, nobody will ever exceed the 90 days per 180.

Source: Myself and all other service providers who fly in and fly out each week.

Turmoil and Instability

There will never be a vote that pleases everyone.

As the EU continues to expand and evolve, the UK's absence means that it risks being sidelined in discussions on critical issues such as climate change, trade, and international security.

I guess you did not notice, but it was the UK prime minister that called the meeting of EU leaders on how to deal with the security threat posed by Russia and the consequences of the US providing no further assistance.

At the meeting, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain ran off in fear of UKs suggestion that boots on the ground in Ukraine maybe the only solution.

Northern Island

The introduction of a hard border between Northern Ireland (which is part of the UK) and the Republic of Ireland (which remains in the EU) is one of the most contentious issues of Brexit

There is no hard border between NI and ROI. However, if you post photos of this hard border, I would be happy to withdraw that statement.

Social Consequences

Control of immigration was one of the goals of Brexitz, but has failed to materialise. However, contrary to remain supporters beliefs, control did not mean that non UK nationals would not be allowed to enter the UK.

Watch the 5 December 2024 episode of BBC question time. Nigel Farage agreed that non UK nationals who have skills that UK are lacking were beneficial to the UK when numbers were measured in 10,000s. However, Tories allowed too many in who were not contributing to the UK. This is confirmed in Labour 2024 manifesto.

Despite Brexit, UK is still subject to the ECHR.

Global Impact Dimished Influence

By leaving the EU, the UK abandoned one of the most powerful and influential blocs in the world.

The UK has not abandoned the EU. It trades goods under the TCA. That the EU has trade agreements with countries outside the bloc is proof that it is not essential to be an EU member to trade with the EU.

As for the EU being one of the most powerful and influential in the World, I suggest you consider what has happened since Russia invaded the Ukraine in February 2022. Three years of Sanctions by both the EU and the US did nothing to stop the war.

That Trump is direct discussion with Putin is proof that sanctions were ineffective.

Furthermore, the UK's ability to play a leading role in addressing global challenges, such as climate change, pandemics, and international conflict, has been severely diminished

Same comment as for Starmer taking the lead regards security issues in recent days.

Conclusion

nation grappling with deep uncertainty, profound division, and the painful consequences of a decision that many now view as one of the worst in its modern history.

If many view Brexit as a bad decision, why have the many not voted against Brexit in any of the last three elections held since UK MPs voted to leave the EU in 2017?

Statista data (Feb 2025 link provided on Thread 14) reveals that 31% want to rejoin the EU. This may explain why the majority of voters have not voted against Brexit.

YouGov data as of Jan 2025 shows that the number of people who think Brexit was wrong has exceeded those who think it was correct since before the 2017 general election but the election was not won by a pro EU party.

Before the 2019 general election it was 47% wrong and 41% right. Again, the election was not won by a pro EU party.

Before the 2024 general election, it was 57% wrong to leave and 34% right to leave. Again the election was not won by a pro EU party.

So, polls say the majority don’t agree with Brexit, but the results of the general elections say otherwise.

Let's break down the argument step-by-step and examine why the reasoning might be incorrect or flawed.

1. Article 50 and the 2016 Referendum
The claim here is that the outcome of the 2016 Brexit referendum became “obsolete” when Article 50 was triggered by Parliament in 2017. However, this interpretation overlooks the key constitutional and democratic principles at play.

• The Role of Parliament: It is true that the UK Parliament voted overwhelmingly to invoke Article 50, which began the process of leaving the EU. This is not in itself a rejection of the referendum's outcome. The referendum was a public advisory vote, and the decision to leave was taken by the government, which sought Parliament's approval for the next steps. Parliament's role was to facilitate the decision, not negate it.
• Democratic Mandate: The referendum was legally binding in the sense that it set the course for the UK’s future. By triggering Article 50, Parliament acted in accordance with the referendum result. If Parliament had rejected this outcome, it would have undermined democratic legitimacy, but instead, it acted to implement the will of the voters, even if there were differing opinions in Parliament itself.

In short, the claim that the referendum result became “obsolete” once Article 50 was triggered is not accurate, as Parliament's action was merely fulfilling the outcome of the referendum.

2. Exchange Rates
The claim about the fall in the value of the pound (£) against the euro (€) and dollar ($) is true, but the narrative needs further clarification.

• The Pound's Decline After the Referendum: It is widely acknowledged that the pound experienced a sharp drop after the 2016 referendum. However, attributing this entirely to Brexit oversimplifies the situation. The currency’s decline could also be due to other global economic factors, including international trade tensions, economic policies, and political instability beyond Brexit itself.
• Post-Transition Period (Post-2020): The assertion that the pound has "increased" since the end of the transition period in December 2020 requires a closer look. While it’s true that the pound’s exchange rate against the euro has fluctuated, it still remains weaker than its pre-Brexit levels. The 1.11 to 1.2 movement against the euro between 2021 and 2024 may seem like an increase, but this needs to be contextualized with long-term trends. A 1.35 value for the pound in early 2015 was relatively high, and post-2020, it has remained below that level, indicating that the long-term effects of Brexit on the pound's value have not been entirely positive.
• A “Rollercoaster Ride” for the Pound: The suggestion that the pound’s fluctuations are solely tied to Trump's election or to Brexit misses the broader picture. Currency value is influenced by a complex array of factors: political uncertainty, fiscal policy, inflation expectations, and broader geopolitical events, not just Brexit. Blaming the pound's decline entirely on Brexit is misleading.

3. Trade and the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA)
The assertion that the TCA only covers goods and not services is somewhat correct, but it oversimplifies the complex picture of UK-EU trade post-Brexit.

• Services Exclusion: The TCA, which came into effect in January 2021, does indeed focus primarily on goods, while services are not given the same level of preferential treatment. However, the claim that "81% of UK GDP" (from services) is unaffected by the agreement misses the point: services, especially financial services, were a key area where the UK hoped to maintain access to the EU market. The loss of frictionless trade in services is a significant impact on the UK economy, particularly for sectors like finance, insurance, and professional services.
• Export of Services: The claim that UK service exports have increased by 25% post-Brexit overlooks the fact that the UK’s services sector faces greater barriers to entry in the EU market than before, even though there may be some growth. The EU's share of service exports to the UK decreasing could reflect a variety of factors, including the shift in trade patterns after Brexit.

4. Passport Rights and Immigration
The claim that UK citizens can visit the EU for 90 days within a 180-day period is accurate. However, the underlying implications may be oversimplified.

• Travel Rules Post-Brexit: The 90 days in 180 rule is indeed the standard for UK citizens now that the UK has left the EU. However, this claim that “nobody will ever exceed the 90 days” does not account for people who may need to stay in the EU for work, business, or family reasons, who may face challenges navigating the restrictions.
• Immigration Control: The claim that Brexit’s promise to control immigration has failed misses the bigger picture of post-Brexit immigration policy. While it's true that immigration policies have been tightened and EU nationals no longer have automatic free movement to the UK, the broader issue is that the UK economy has still relied on immigration for labor, especially in sectors like agriculture and healthcare. The issue is not simply about the number of immigrants but the types of skills needed to fill vacancies and the long-term economic impact.

5. Northern Ireland and the Border
The statement that there is “no hard border” between Northern Ireland (NI) and the Republic of Ireland (ROI) is technically true today, but it overlooks the ongoing tension and the complexity of the situation.

• The Northern Ireland Protocol: The Northern Ireland Protocol, which keeps NI aligned with certain EU rules to avoid a hard border, is an ongoing point of contention. While no physical border exists, there are still checks on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, creating a de facto border in the Irish Sea. This is a significant political issue within the UK, particularly for unionists who oppose any differentiation between NI and the rest of the UK.
• No Hard Border, But Economic Barriers Exist: The absence of a hard border doesn't mean the issue has been resolved—rather, it has been shifted to new economic checks. The complexity of the situation is important to understand beyond a simple “no border” claim.

6. Global Influence and Sanctions
The claim about the EU’s sanctions being ineffective in stopping Russia's invasion of Ukraine requires a more nuanced interpretation.

• Effectiveness of Sanctions: While sanctions may not have fully prevented Russia's aggression in Ukraine, it’s important to understand that sanctions are part of a broader strategy, which includes military support, diplomatic efforts, and efforts to isolate Russia internationally. While sanctions alone may not have been enough, the collective efforts of the EU, US, and other allies have had a significant impact on Russia’s economy and global standing.
• The UK’s Role in Global Security: The suggestion that the UK's absence from the EU diminishes its influence in addressing global issues is debatable. While the EU plays a key role in international diplomacy, the UK, as a NATO member and a permanent member of the UN Security Council, remains a key player in global security. The UK’s ability to lead on global issues is not solely dependent on its membership in the EU.

7. Social Consequences
The argument about immigration and the failure of Brexit to deliver on controlling immigration oversimplifies the complexity of the situation.

• Immigration Control: While it’s true that Brexit was supposed to reduce immigration, in practice, the UK still faces labor shortages in many sectors. The challenges of controlling immigration are deeper than just limiting numbers; they involve managing economic needs, international relationships, and demographic trends.

Conclusion: The Brexit Vote and the General Election
The final claim suggests that the UK has not voted to overturn Brexit in any subsequent election. While this is technically true, it ignores the fact that the elections have been influenced by many factors beyond Brexit, including economic conditions, party politics, and leadership choices.

• Electoral Outcomes: The fact that no pro-EU party has won the general election does not mean that the majority of voters still support Brexit. It simply reflects the fact that the political discourse around Brexit has been complicated by other issues. Many people who disapprove of Brexit still vote for parties that have not made rejoining the EU a central issue in their platform.

In conclusion, the argument is deeply flawed in its oversimplification of the issues at hand. Brexit’s consequences are far-reaching, involving political, economic, and social factors that go beyond the points raised. Analyzing the long-term effects of Brexit requires a more nuanced understanding of the interplay between national sovereignty, global trade, and international relations.

I too am nearly 60
but I see the world in a much wider lens

Brexit has happened.
It is as past as the Crimean War.
The future is building a relationship with Europe that supports the UK economically and socially against malign forces.

Rehashing past numbers does not achieve that.

50% of all 13 year olds on the planet live in Sub Saharan Africa.
Without Immigration, the population of Europe will decline (age) by 35% in the next 75 years

that is the big picture

Tiny steps in the right direction .....
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/britain-to-offer-eu-youth-mobility-scheme-fh0dkh95w

Thank you for the new thread. I think Starmer is going to be more concerned with his meeting with President Trump this week than Brexit but lets see what happens. Heard some fun talk about a potential ECB bailout for France, that'll be interesting if there's any truth in it?