Predictions of how day-to-day life will change post-Brexit?

[acovidcomplaint26252727]

Do you think there be many impacts? I imagine that those with jobs linked directly to the EU will find their lives very different, but for the average Joe I’m envisioning:

• Rise in prices in general, especially imports
• Holidays much more expensive (either due to the extra things needed to go abroad, or due to the new increased demand for U.K. holidays)
• More immigrants from Asia and Africa as opposed to Europe (although I think that’ll mainly be felt in the cities)

It’s hard to envision post-Brexit life.

@cattenburg

How naive to think in 2 yrs covid wont be a problem for your children. Who is going to pay back all that debt in 2yrs? You? How much money can you pay extra in taxes a month right now? And in 2 yrs that would require you paying what more than £300 per month and as unemployment is high, less taxpayers so you take more of the burden.

Back in the real world its your children and grandchildren who will be paying it back.

Peregrina, I didn’t know all that. I do remember that East Germany’s economy collapsed and West Germany couldn’t prop it up.

Cyclingmad, Covid has been brutal, but it’s short-term. Yes, I think we’re looking at higher taxes, but not forever, as the Tories really aren’t a fan of them. Brexit is a long-term economic hit. In 20 years time, we will still be losing money and opportunities due to Brexit, unless we can forge closer ties with the EU.

How naive to think in 2 yrs covid wont be a problem for your children. ..... Back in the real world its your children and grandchildren who will be paying it back.

Thinks so? This analysis disagrees www.bbc.co.uk/news/55402088 point 2.

Ah the lovely forecasts that are trotted out and time and time again proven wrong...much like the sage ones....

@cyclingmad The Covid debt will be paid back over decades and even centuries, it will be paid back through bonds as a once in a century/generation event. You're right in a sense that our children and grandchildren will pay it back but we did the same with the debt from WW2 and the debt for the abolition of slavery to slave owners was only paid back in 2015 despite slavery being abolished in 1833. It won't be a noticeable debt in terms of adding massive percentage increases to peoples general taxation (although it will suit governments to use it as an excuse to increase taxes as your average person doesn't really understand economics and equates a countries economy with household/credit card debt). The multiplier effect, growth and inflation will see off the Covid debt bill.

Brexit will be much more noticeable though through a vastly smaller GDP and less opportunities for business to trade with the most prosperous and richest trading bloc in the world. A drop of just 5% in GDP amounts to hundreds of billions less floating around the economy which means less of a multiplier effect and less growth so in time we end up with worse public services, less jobs, worse standard of living and less opportunities.

People saying we can do deals with other countries have it wrong, even Jacob Rees Mogg has admitted it will take 50 years to get anywhere near what we have now and actually see any benefits. Negotiating trade deals via the EU put the entire continent in the driving seat as you're negotiating from a position of strength. Look at our Japan deal, it's worse than what we had through the EU deal. Also in terms of trade deals, they're usually best with your nearest neighbours because 1. for services they are usually in the same time zone, speak English, you can be there for face to face meetings in a couple of hours and 2. for objects it's easier/cheaper to actually get it to the destination.

@cyclingmad

You think it's over. Good luck with that. Welcome to the decline of the UK economy.

Rise of Southern Ireland as the new English speaking finance hub to replace the city of London.

I think it is more likely that Paris will become the new financial hub. I live in mainland Europe and often translate documents for things like the EU comitology committee, and see that most people of university education have a decent enough grasp of international English. The kind of English that passes in Brussels would make most English people want to cover their ears, but as a bridging language between nations it's absolutely fine, so I doubt mother tongue English will be the decider. Financial English is rather like church Latin. I know Ireland is important for Fintech, but it's Paris that has the really serious renown for banks.

Which brings us back to the issue of soft(ish) power - the UK's influence was once quite closely linked to language, but the emergence of various forms of globish, including those used in professional settings, has shifted the balance on that significantly.

The German taxpayer has been paying a Solidaritätszuschlag or 'Soli' of 5.5 percent of income since 1991 to finance Reunification. I think its about to be reduced next year for those in the lower income bracket. Covid may change that though.

‘Southern Ireland’ ?
You mean The Republic of Ireland?

I think more bluntly- the U.K. had a reputation for pragmatism and getting things done (deals, trade, justice etc). And trust- the brits had a reputation for being ‘reputable’, trustable people.
Now it’s not anymore.

I can tell you something that's already happening: a worrying trend of rising complaints against certain HCPs.

When Brexit and the 'hostile environment' was emboldened, we lost many good, competent well trained (sometimes better trained than the NHS) EU staff. We were desperate.

Those NHS infilled vacancies stats are real and represent real grass root struggles in your local hospital.

So, the solution was to 'cast the net wider'. Thus our area is now 50% 'overseas, non-EU trained'.

Their standard of training ranges from adequate to 'bought' qualification.

Your hair would stand on end at the escalation of near-misses and the fire-fighting now going on in my area.

You wouldn't necessarily guess as you wouldn't know how unnecessarily high that radiation dose was; that the 'wrong bit' was imaged; how 7 X-rays on one knee (instead of 2) is borderline negligent.

I am bringing forward my early retirement as I am tiring of the constant mental struggle of whether to step in to ward 'a developing situation' off; or keep well away so as to not find myself in court next to an offender.

But heigh ho; sovrintee, innit?

This miljea is a consequence of making EU citizens feel unwelcome and a lack of FoM which one Brexiter said that didn't affect her. Well, I hope she and her relatives stay healthy.

I have a shit ton of paperwork to deal with that I wouldn't otherwise have had to do, to establish my residency in the country where I've lived for 17 years. I have chronic illness that make it difficult to travel and I will have to make at least one 4-hour round trip to get my fingerprints taken.

When I eventually get it I will have to carry my residence permit as well as my passport, because I regularly visit a neighbouring country,

I will have to check how many days a year I spend in the neighbouring country having medical treatment, because I will only be able to spend 90 days a year in another Schengen country. It has not yet been confirmed whether day trips count as one of the 90 days, or only an overnight stay. If day trips count, I will probably have to stop some essential treatment as I won't have enough days available. There are no hospitals nearby in my own country offering the treatment.

Because of the above, I won't have any days left for holidays in Schengen countries.

My DH will not easily be able to accept work in the U.K. or other Schengen countries. It will not be worth my continuing to do limited work for U.K. clients.

If one of our elderly mothers falls ill, we will be limited as to how much time we can spend with them because of the 90 day rule and the risk to our residency if we spend too much time out of our home country.

I may have to pay roaming charges on my U.K. phone (which I use for work).

I may not be able to buy medication privately from the U.K.

I may have to pay 40% VAT plus customs charges on any goods purchased from the U.K., because many companies have not arranged to deduct VAT for EU customers, and we will have to pay local VAT on receipt of the goods.

We will join a campaign for the U.K. to rejoin the EU.

We will continue to be fed up that our lives have become moe complicated. To anyone who says we chose to move abroad and should accept the consequences, I say this: imagine you moved from London to Manchester, and after you moved, the government held a referendum in which it was decided that in future, Manchester would be part of the USA (and you didn't get a vote). Would you be happy about it?

So no, my life won't change much.