Deal or No Deal

[MarshmallowManiac]

What do we think at this late stage in the proceedings? I know which horse I'm backing, and it's called 'Stick it up your Sovereignty'. Unfortunately I feel he'll be bringing No Deal home, but I hope I'm wrong.

@NastyBlouse not sure about a deal but my dh, a former civil servant, assures me that all relevant paperwork will have been ready for a while.

Johnson doesn't want a deal. Keep that in mind when listening to the news. So it doesn't matter what the EU offers.

@Songsofexperience

No deal was always the plan. Years of Tory Austerity to devalue all our assets so they could be sold off cheap to their Global capitalist mates in the smash and loot fest of No Deal.

Sounds like 90s Russia

I studied Russian at university not that long ago, I didn't ever expect to be experiencing Russian life quite like this. Lucky me!

ICouldHaveCheckedFirst I feel exactly the same. He and his cronies have NEVER wanted a deal. It is so sad that the general public are mostly in the dark concerning how damaging it will be.

my dh, a former civil servant, assures me that all relevant paperwork will have been ready for a while.
He is as wrong as wrong can be

@MarshmallowManiac

ICouldHaveCheckedFirst I feel exactly the same. He and his cronies have NEVER wanted a deal. It is so sad that the general public are mostly in the dark concerning how damaging it will be.

Agreed - just look at how few people comment on Brexit threads here compared to on other topics. Why aren't people much more stressed out about this?!

Because what’s the point in panicking over something we have no control over. Whatever happens is going to happen. All the normal person on the street can do is maybe make sure they have a back up of staples in the cupboards for panic shortages. We can’t change anything now at our level.

Just like panicking over covid. If I panic or stress that doesn’t change the outcome it just harms my own mental health. Plus it’s actually not doom and gloom for all us anyway for some life will just go on as normal clearly a shock to lots of people.

I'm not saying that panicking would help or that we should panic, but given how people behaved at the start of covid with the toilet roll shortage etc I can only assume they generally don't realise what is likely to happen in January. Not that they are calmly waiting and seeing, they just don't realise.

Snow I really don't know. I don't like to way it makes me worried, want Sunday to be over and done with asap.

I imagine on Sunday it will be: 'A deal remains possible, but we are still far apart on issues XYZ, so we will continue discussions until Tuesday and then we'll definitely have a decision.'

And on and on until the end of time.

Why do people and the media keep saying no deal. It’s not no deal. Not like it was last time, The deal is the withdrawal agreement, and the terms are already in place for that, from customs to tarrifs, and companies prepared,

What’s being discussed is an additional deal. Over ans above the basic withdrawal agreement,

I get it’s confusing but you’d think at least the bloody media would get it right. If they come to no further agreement, we exit on the agreed terms of the withdrawal agreement.

@TheresSnowHelpForUs

I'm not saying that panicking would help or that we should panic, but given how people behaved at the start of covid with the toilet roll shortage etc I can only assume they generally don't realise what is likely to happen in January. Not that they are calmly waiting and seeing, they just don't realise.

The toilet roll shortage was also misunderstood by the media.

Basically the manufacturers had planned for a certain normal level of domestic use. And a certain normal level of commercial use. When everyone started working from home then the commercial demand disappeared, the big rolls or the sheets that are sold for offices, and other work places. No one was using the loo in their work place. Everyone was using the loo at home.

So they needed to reconfigure their manufacturing, to produce more of the small rolls folks used in their homes, becayse everyone was at hone and needed more than normal .

And they needed to stop producing the commercial stuff. And it took them time to switch the manufacturing. Hence why we had a shortage, it was actually very little to do with the panic buyers and everything about the switch in demand from commercial to domestic. Because no one was in their work place and everyone was shitting at home.

not sure about a deal but my dh, a former civil servant, assures me that all relevant paperwork will have been ready for a while

That isn't evidenced in my work. Emergency planning teams being asked by the Department of Education, what plans are in place to feed children their school meals during food shortages, caused by Brexit, from January onwards.

Of course no plans because no one knows what to plan for.

Bluntness
The deal is the withdrawal agreement, and the terms are already in place for that, from customs to tarrifs, and companies prepared,
NO
The WA does NOT include trade arrangements after transition
that is the whole point

@ListeningQuietly

Bluntness The deal is the withdrawal agreement, and the terms are already in place for that, from customs to tarrifs, and companies prepared, NO The WA does NOT include trade arrangements after transition that is the whole point

It doesn’t include tarrifs, but the customs requirements are al, set out. As are the timelines, it’s done. We will move to wto terms. That is the deal, customs, regulations to import substances, the borders, it’s all agreed in the withdrawal agreement.

So what’s being said is if no further agreement is sought, we will move to world trade organisation terms. Tarrifs of up to four percent on invoice price coming in.

How to get the product in, is fully agreed on both sides.

Sorry if no further agreement is made, not sought. The deal is the withdrawal agreement. It’s very different to last time, where no one knew what would happen at customs, or with passports etc, now that’s all done and agreed. What we are seeking here is effectively enhanced terms over and above the wa.

What the media should be saying is we will leave with the withdrawal agreement terms and no enhanced trade deals.

Bluntness, Do you work in logistics /manufacturing / supply chain management or similar? I'm hoping so, and that you have first-hand knowledge that systems and processes reflect the required changes. Please reassure me.

Yes.

This was really interesting, thanks!

@TheresSnowHelpForUs

This was really interesting, thanks!

Sorry, that was meant to be in reply to the bog roll shortage explanation.

Don’t get me wrong there will be delays at the borders, and a potential for trucks to be sitting for up to a week, worst case, but the British government has already addressed it, and said they will be waving through the normal hauliers, without doing in depth checks, because to do so would excaberate queues. The import requirements were released in the summer. As were the tarrifs that we would encounter. Also how to bring over specific substances. It’s all done.

What’s not known is if we can get a free trade deal, but the withdrawal agreement terms to continue supply is there. And in place. Delays will be because of confusion, drivers having the wrong paperwork etc. Not because of “no deal”

That’s why it annoys me when the media is screaming no deal. The withdrawal agreement is the friggen deal. We have one. What we are trying to get is a better one. Medicines, food, everything can come in, it’s all sorted. But it will be more expensive. Because we have basically no trade agreements.

Bluntless, when you say more expensive, how much more expensive are we talking? A lot of people are already on the breadline as is... And will it make UK produced stuff cheaper? (Apologies if this is beyond your range of expertise)

I don’t know them all, just for my industry and it’s up to four percent, depending on what it is.

But it’s on invoice price remember, so if you bring in raw components and manufacture here, then its cheaper than brining in a finished product. Becayse rhe invoice price of a raw material is lower than the invoice price of a finished product.

It was the same with hand sanitizer. Lots of places had the equipment and so could make the nice handy small bottles it just wasn’t what the normal demand was. Once companies set up for more smaller bottles less massive vats the stock was suddenly all back again.

There is a big network within logistics and those type of companies that actually contact others to help pick up what’s needed and to get the stuff rolling out as fast as possible again. I know a warehouse that normally does packaging for say toys that got offered to do face masks for single use. They had the man power and equipment to do it it was just a case of adding a new customer to their client base and off they went.