Westminstenders: Going, going, cummings

[RedToothBrush]

As expected he's fucking off and leaving everyone else to pick up the pieces in January. But it does look like he was eventually shown the door and left with a cardboard box. As he should have been months ago.

This has nothing whatsoever to do with Johnson needing an image change, like the shape shifting creep he is, to one that fits more with the incoming Biden Administration. In other words hes got some serious sucking up to do...

... Meanwhile in Brexit land we are going into yet another final week of talks.

Many expect Cummings departure to signal 'the cave in'. The Eu say we havent moved enough and the uk say the EU wants us to do all the moving... Except the EU have done lots of moving. Barnier is still looking for a groundsman to level his field to play. We have yet to work out we aren't Canada and distance is important to trade.

Of course if we don't get a deal, that Pfizer vaccine in Germany that we want, might be hit with delays and extra costs we just can't afford.

@TatianaBis

I want a Brexiteer to tell me what they think Brexit has cost, so we can then pick through it for value for money.

Good luck with that

The problem you'd encounter, certainly with asking that question of me is that the cost/price isn't relevant to me.

I'm hesitant to assert that "I don't care what it costs" because I'll consequently undoubtedly be understood to be lacking in compassion.

Brexit will undobtedly have cost the UK taxpayer a vast amount of money, this study, commissioned by People's Vote, said in 2018 that the cost in (now 10 years time) will be £100bn per year.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46338585

So how to put it...it hasn't (yet) cost me any substantial amount of anything that I truly value and if it does then I'm happy to bear the cost.

Louise
What will you buy more of when the EU tariff is gone?

The problem you'd encounter, certainly with asking that question of me is that the cost/price isn't relevant to me.

"The problem with socialism, is you eventually run out of other peoples money".

I never pegged Louise as a Socialist, but there you go. Another 2020 shocker.

the vaccine will get caught up in those queues

It really won't.

UK in a Changing Europe (ListeningQuietly's link) are also using the November 2018 analysis - linked to in their report.

How much do you think Brexit has cost?

No idea.

Two undercover socialists. That's four years of our lives we won't get back.

This is the site to watch ....
www.nao.org.uk/report/eu-exit-the-get-ready-for-brexit-campaign/
and
www.nao.org.uk/report/the-cost-of-eu-exit-preparations/
as well as
www.nao.org.uk/report/learning-for-government-from-eu-exit-preparations/
and do not forget
www.nao.org.uk/report/exiting-the-eu-supplying-the-health-and-social-care-sectors/

there will be more ....

Not paying for it.
Being able to make our own laws and hold our own lawmakers to account more directly for what they do.
Being able to trade worldwide without imposing EU mandated tariffs on non EU trade partners.

I want the UK government to be able to act according to rules our parliamentarians determine as our representatives.

What am I looking forward to.

So you basically haven’t grasped global trading in the 21st century. You’re not alone.

Study by Dan Hanson, a U.K. economist for Bloomberg Economics put the cost £130 billion, and up to £200 billion by the end of 2020.

He used a doppelgänger UK though I think - he forecasted what our economy might have been if we had not voted to leave the EU - not actual costs of Brexit. If I remember correctly he also compared the UK's economy with the other G7 countries - but it was the USA and Canada who did exceptionally well - not Germany and Italy - France was in the middle (Japan I can't remember).

This is the site to watch...

So, it sounds as though £46 million of the £100 million budget for the campaign was spent;

"The overall campaign budget was £100 million. By the end of October, at the point at which the campaign was stopped, £46 million had been spent against an expected spend of £53 million by that point."

This is the site to watch ....

Not in debates with Clav and Louise since they've told us that financial cost is immaterial. Which is always is when you are spending other peoples money.

Now I'm more curious as to when they changed their minds. Because my memory is that cost was mentioned almost every post, going back - even a few months.

This is what happened in 1977 - a lot of people suddenly stapled their flares into drainpipes, turned their Pink Floyd T-Shirt around, with rips in it, and turned the hair into a mohican, while proclaiming they had "always been into 'The Pistols'"

Dominic Cummings has now left his role as I understand it. He should have gone in the summer time I think, but anyway he's gone now.

I think the UK government needs to invest massively in some areas. What changes would I like to see? Some examples.

• I welcome hugely the proposed investment in our defence capabilties and want to see more of this.
• I'd like to see major investment in moving freight by rail instead of on the roads
• I'd like to see an absolutely vast public investment in nuclear power and other sources and a time bound committment to enegy independence for the UK
• I'd want all existing greenbelt land better protected from housing development
• I'd love the government to make a major intervention in the housing market. I'm sure this is totally unrealistic but for example, incentivising house sales to first time homebuyers by mandating a higher selling price for houses to first time buyers with the government meeting the cost (for the buyer) of the difference between the "first time" selling price and the "exisiting homeowner" selling price.
• I'd like to see whole government departments moved out of London

That is the cost of Brexit, or one way of reckoning it.

There are others, like the NIESR study indicating it will cost 100 billion a year by 2030, and a 3.9% lower GDP by 2030.

Or the IFS/LSE/King’s study that indicates the economy will be 5.5% smaller in 10 years.

Meanwhile, in the real world.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/937610/transition-pbs.pdf

ARE YOU READY FOR NEW RULES FOR BUSINESS WITH THE EU?

Urgent message from the Business Secretary

There is just over a month to go until the end of the transition period and there will be new rules to follow from 1 January 2021 onwards. As Business Secretary, I urge you to ACT NOW to avoid your business operations being interrupted when the transition period ends. As a business in the professional and business services sector, you can find out what you need to do by going to gov.uk/services-2021. The top actions you can take now to prepare are:

1. Get your professional qualifications recognised by EU regulators to be able to practise or service clients in the EU.

Starting the process to get your professional qualifications recognised by EU regulators by 31 December 2020 may help you to practise your profession (e.g. accountancy, engineering) in the EU.

1. Check if a visa or work permit is required to travel to the EU for work purposes and apply if necessary.

You may face delays or refusal at the border when travelling for business if you do not comply with the immigration requirements of the EU27 if travelling from 1 January 2021.

1. Be prepared on data protection and data transfers.

Your business may not be able to legally receive personal data from the European Economic Area (EEA) from 1 January 2021 if you have not put alternative safeguards in place to cover EU to UK personal data flows.

1. If you are planning to recruit from overseas from 1 January 2021, you will need to register as a licensed visa sponsor.

You may not be able to legally hire people from outside the UK if you do not have a licence. New employees from outside the UK will also need to meet new job, salary and language requirements. Irish citizens and those eligible under the EU Settlement Scheme are not affected.

THE CHANGES CAN TAKE LONGER THAN YOU THINK, SO START TODAY

@DGRossetti

The problem you'd encounter, certainly with asking that question of me is that the cost/price isn't relevant to me.

"The problem with socialism, is you eventually run out of other peoples money".

I never pegged Louise as a Socialist, but there you go. Another 2020 shocker.

Saying the cost of something isn't relevant to me isn't socialism DGR. I always find it helpful to consider that a government only ever has "other people's money" to spend (i.e. 'ours') , as opposed to its own.

I'm confused by Louise's list of things she'd like to see as a result of Brexit in her most recent post.

Not. A. Single. One. Of. Them. Is. Something. The. UK. Can't. Do. As. A. Member. Of. The. EU.

So remind me again why we "have" to leave?

Saying the cost of something isn't relevant to me isn't socialism DGR

... although it's the argument oft used to characterise someone as socialist.

Indeed, one of the defining features of the 2019 election was Tory supporters obsession with the cost of the Labour Manifesto. Which we now learn was of no interest to a lot of people who voted Tory, if we extrapolate your position across the population.

So remind me again why we "have" to leave?

Well we now know it ain't the money.

There are others, like the NIESR study indicating it will cost 100 billion a year by 2030, and a 3.9% lower GDP by 2030.
Or the IFS/LSE/King’s study that indicates the economy will be 5.5% smaller in 10 years.

From 2018 I think - referred to in this 2018 blog;

www.tonydicker.co.uk/news/business-news/archive/article/2018/November/brexit-deal-will-cost-uk-100-billion-per-year-by-2030-study-suggests

@DGRossetti

Saying the cost of something isn't relevant to me isn't socialism DGR

... although it's the argument oft used to characterise someone as socialist.

Indeed, one of the defining features of the 2019 election was Tory supporters obsession with the cost of the Labour Manifesto. Which we now learn was of no interest to a lot of people who voted Tory, if we extrapolate your position across the population.

Really?! I thought the 2019 election was all about Brexit!

- I'd like to see major investment in moving freight by rail instead of on the roads

It isn't practical in the UK because of the short distances and lack of bulk that ever needs moving now between a single large producer and a single large user.

The extractive, refining and heavy manufacturing industries just aren't there any more, and huge marshaling yards to sort wagons have been replaced by huge sheds next to motorway junctions.

- I'd want all existing greenbelt land better protected from housing development

Presumably to make way for all the new railways and freight terminals you'd need to send more goods by rail.

So how to put it...it hasn't (yet) cost me any substantial amount of anything that I truly value and if it does then I'm happy to bear the cost.
Sums up many Tory supporting principles of selfishness and no consideration of others. The epitome of 'I'm alright Jack', it doesn't effect me, I'm ok, to hell with everyone else. Abhorrent.

I'm not a socialist, but ...

@prettybird

I'm confused by Louise's list of things she'd like to see as a result of Brexit in her most recent post.

Not. A. Single. One. Of. Them. Is. Something. The. UK. Can't. Do. As. A. Member. Of. The. EU.

So remind me again why we "have" to leave?

Having exclusive control of our own fishing grounds is something we couldn't do within the EU. It remains to be seen whether we will in practice do this outside it (of course we can) but can does not = will.

The list was in response to "what changes I'd like to see?" and I answered it in that spirit thinking that if I just posted the oft repeated list of purely post Brexit wants about more control of laws, trade, money etc I'd just get shouted at, which would have been fair enough I suppose.