Westminstenders: What the winds bring

[RedToothBrush]

The next few weeks are crucial. Eu talks, covid handling, the US election and any other unexpected events (its nearly November, lets face it will probably be the weather).

It feels a little like the car crash in slow motion is about to hit the wall of reality. I guess that just means all there is left to do is to brace for impact.

Oh I know Ross isn't up to much, but it's a continuation of the surprisingly off-on-their-own-tangent stuff coming from the Scottish Tories, started under Ruth Davidson. I had thought she was a one off. Makes me wonder if they're consciously re-orienting the party for what is starting to feel like the inevitability of independence.

@TheMShip

Oh I know Ross isn't up to much, but it's a continuation of the surprisingly off-on-their-own-tangent stuff coming from the Scottish Tories, started under Ruth Davidson. I had thought she was a one off. Makes me wonder if they're consciously re-orienting the party for what is starting to feel like the inevitability of independence.

Maybe it's dawning on them that post independence, the SNP are likely toast ?

A straw poll in my mind finds about 1 in 2 SNP "supporters" "can't stand the fuckers" (their words) and would dump them like a hot potato at the first opportunity. Incredibly there's probably room in an independent Scotland for a Tory-esque party ... so there's going to have to be a lot of fence sitting and two-faced announcements from the current incumbents. Who have already been hobbled from the off with Ruth Davidsons peerage - which may well be seen as a gift to the SNP from Westminster when history is written.

If Farage does want to rename his party as Reform UK he'll need to deal with a few Companies House issues
find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/SC649171
and
find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/11694875/officers
and
I wonder why Companies House has not cross linked all of the directorships held by Richard James Sunley Tice

If Farage does want to rename his party as Reform UK he'll need to deal with a few Companies House issues

All I can think of is "reformed ham" which isn't a great optic for a party that is going to have to defend itself against allegations of gammonism.

It's not a huge jump from reformed ham to spam and gammon.

@Jason118

It's not a huge jump from reformed ham to spam and gammon.

Spam fritters ... mmmmmm

And one of the nicest carvery meals I ever had was gammon. 2010. Scarborough. Last holiday DW could walk for.

Even though I can't stand Farage, for some reason his return to continue snapping at the heels of the Tories pleases me greatly. Especially so near to Halloween and the image of the undead. Imagine trashing not only your country, but your party in a Faustian pact to eliminate the vote-sucking Farage, only to see him pop up again, like some sort of Hydran serpent .... the English political equivalent of knotweed. That's what some Tory MPs could have on their conscience, if they had one.

I wonder why Companies House has not cross linked all of the directorships held by Richard James Sunley Tice

126 total, 11 current?

It’s the Companies House beta version, so maybe not yet up to to speed on joined up thinking?

Still, it’s all looking fiiiiiiine for the online customs stuff then

an.com/politics/2020/nov/02/chips-are-down-brexit-uncertainty-causing-scottish-potato-crisis

Oops

www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/02/chips-are-down-brexit-uncertainty-causing-scottish-potato-crisis

www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/01/plague-year-brexit-support-waning-johnson-covid-economy

As Nick Bosanquet, professor of health policy at Imperial College, London, recently pointed out in the Financial Times, the conjuncture of port delays with the virus and long waits in laybys for thousands of lorry drivers, probably in bad weather, “would be a classic situation for super-spreading of the virus”, and that “drivers would have to present recent test results in order to cross”.

Bosanquet says the looming national emergency could be avoided only by seeking an agreement with the EU, preferably with a six-month extension of the transition period.

Going ahead with Brexit in a time of plague is the height of irresponsibility.

Going ahead with Brexit in a time of plague is the height of irresponsibility.

Hard to think of a better way to guarantee it, really. It really is impossible to describe anything the UK government has done since being elected as "responsible". Thanks to the power of instant communications, we know what "responsible" looks like around the world.

Also, I don't think there's any coincidence in Farages timing of his "Reform" agenda. It's come at precisely the right time to keep his knee on Boris neck over Brexit.

But why would the EU offer another extension?
What evidence does the EU have that the UK would use the time well ?

@ListeningQuietly

But why would the EU offer another extension? What evidence does the EU have that the UK would use the time well ?

A quick scan suggests that no one in the EU is talking about an extension - or indeed Brexit. It's almost as if they have bigger fish to fry (yes, that was deliberate).

but De Gaulle comme vous ne l'avez jamais vu - well, well - who could resist

But why would the EU offer another extension?
What evidence does the EU have that the UK would use the time well ?

None. But with many EU states also going back into lockdown, there might be a desire to postpone the inevitable disruption until covid disruption has become a bit less all-consuming. I'm inclined to think that if there were a will, there might be a way.

Would Johnson be able to sell extending the transition period to his domestic base though?

@SabrinaThwaite

Would Johnson be able to sell extending the transition period to his domestic base though?

He doesn't need to, since he isn't going to.

I can't think that they would. All we'll do is piss it away, spit in their eye and complain they are bullying us.

Would Johnson be able to sell extending the transition period to his domestic base though?

Does anyone care any more? He'd be extending in the context of potentially severe lockdown restrictions in the run up to Christmas, at a time when Farage and his ilk have declared war on a new front.

I'm not saying it's going to happen (in fact I doubt it will) - just that if the stars align it's not impossible. The EU will make decisions in its own best interests. If the U.K. asks (again: I doubt it will) the EU might well judge that its interests are best served by postponing Brexit disruption for a few months.

I know there isn't an obvious path to an extension but these are genuinely exceptional circumstances.

If / When Johnson says that there definitely won’t be an extension, no sirree, no way, no how, then that’s when I’ll think there might be a glimmer of hope.

Indeed Sabrina ...

But as a more general, not purely economic observation regarding the EU's interests (and picking up on another recent post) .... France, Belgium and the Netherlands won't want lorry drivers piling up at the border and spreading covid either.

@SabrinaThwaite

If / When Johnson says that there definitely won’t be an extension, no sirree, no way, no how, then that’s when I’ll think there might be a glimmer of hope.

He wrote it into law (not that it means much, post-IMB).

Johnson has an 80 seat majority. He can do what he wants, as long as he can whip his MPs into submission.

@SabrinaThwaite

Johnson has an 80 seat majority. He can do what he wants, as long as he can whip his MPs into submission.

Which leads us to the rub; he has been haemorrhaging goodwill and support from the backbenches. If he did try to U-turn, ERG may well get a load of disaffected Brexity MPs to abstain or vote against in the name "the will of the people".

@52andblue

I spent 30 mins in the tearooms at Chillingham Castle at the end of our visit today (5m from home). Lord Wakefield came over and chatted to ds about a gun he'd notoced he'd been interested in as we looked around. Talked to me about a painting. To dd about some elephant armour. He was fascinating, and really charming. Towards the end he said: 'it's a bit like modern politicians, really NO grasp of the issues of the common herd, one wonders who advises them?' I gaped at him and wondered if he was pulling my chain? (I suspect not, as a tea lady was showing him 'how to Google' on her phone and he seemed astonished!).

(Lord W being DomCum's FIL)

Oh, well, I thought it was vaguely amusing!

Surely backbench rebellion wouldn’t be an issue as most of the opposition would vote with the government to enable an extension? I can’t see this happening though, so it’s a moot point.