Impact of US Presidential election post-Brexit

[TownHallDesigner]

Disclosure: I’m not British nor do I live in the UK. I’m from an EU country. My interest in Brexit is fairly passive so I’m not very up to date on latest developments or intricacies.

However, I am curious to know what British people think the outcome of the US presidential election will have on the UK, post Brexit.

There’s an article in the Guardian today that I saw posted on Twitter, but I haven’t read it yet. I wanted to post my question and thoughts before reading it.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/25/johnson-dangerously-close-to-one-us-president-wht-if-biden-wins

I think Johnson very much aligned himself to Trump but that relationship seems to have cooled quite a bit. Plus recent discussions around trade standards have raised much debate and concern.

Biden was part of Obama’s very pro-Europe administration. I can’t see him supporting a UK government that will not fully protect the terms of the Good Friday Agreement. Similarly, I can’t see him risk relations with the EU27 in favour of UK1.

Ultimately, my understanding is that the House of Representatives makes decisions on trade agreements and Speaker Pelosi has very clearly said there will be no chance of a UK-US trade deal if the GFA agreement is not upheld.

It seems to be a rock and a hard place for Johnson. He’ll probably be able to save face more with Trump and insist that whatever deal is made is the best there is.
It’s likely he’ll get little traction from Biden, so will either need to reconsider the Northern Ireland issue in order to secure a trade deal, or look to other markets. Wherever they are.

Lets wait and see what the outcome is
we should know by the end of November

Op - that's pretty much exactly what the article said.

@Neolara

Op - that's pretty much exactly what the article said.

I’ve just read it.

Yes, no surprises.

I knew Biden was Catholic but didn’t realise his Irish roots were so strong and such an influence.

The part around lack UK’s of influence in China is interesting too.

It kind of feels like the UK is barking up the wrong tree doesn’t it? Democrats have reduced their diplomatic involvement to reduce the risk optics of international interference so Johnson seems to have very little to go on.

@ListeningQuietly

Lets wait and see what the outcome is we should know by the end of November

Very apt given your username

Not being goady but do you think that’s good enough? From your government, I mean?

Certainly, it seems Johnson’s hands are tied but surely a good approach is a good approach, regardless of who is in the White House.

It’s almost like Johnson thinks this isn’t a good approach but has backed himself into a corner.

Johnson has no choice but to sit and wait.
The EU will not blink.
The USA will either be supportive of Ireland or very supportive of Ireland after the election result.

The UK government has painted itself into a very bad corner.

The Irish heritage lobby in USA is very powerful. That part won't change. The Dems will stay in charge of HoReps -- that part won't change.

Trump blows lots of hot air. He won't do anything special for UK unless he thinks it helps with his meglomania. I don't know why helping UK would help his meglomania. Biden is very pragmatic & will want to try to restore aspects of Obama's legacy. Shoring up the AfCA will be Biden's priority. Not new trade deals with small-medium economies.

It will be interesting if the apparent peace settlement betw Israel with Sudan is stable.

The Irish heritage lobby in USA is very powerful

I knew it was powerful, but didn’t realise just how powerful. According to that article, it’s second only to pro-Israel lobby.

I think that the outcome of whether Trump or Biden gets in will be roughly the same in terms of an actual deal being any good for the UK. But the PR and scope for grand gestures will be much greater if Trump gets in. Trump loves a fawner and Boris will certainly be up for fawning over him.

However, the result may not be known for weeks until after the election if Trump contests it. And if he wins after that, what will his mindset be? Considering he is stone mad, bullish and unpredictable at the best of times.

It is shocking - but not really - that Boris is prepared to string the EU along for extra weeks to see if an unpredictable and narssacistic Trump might say he'll do the UK a favour if he gets in. And in that time UK business, councils and citizens will be in limbo.

Boris is a political gambler and this is another punt of his I reckon.

[waves post Brexit acquired Irish passport] the UK fucks in anyway with GFA , it is fucked for a US trade deal.

@TownHallDesigner

The Irish heritage lobby in USA is very powerful

I knew it was powerful, but didn’t realise just how powerful. According to that article, it’s second only to pro-Israel lobby.

You may be forgiven for not knowing. It's not your job.

Not quite sure what Johnson & cos excuse is.