Westministenders: Can you tell your Rs from Elbows?

[RedToothBrush]

This week Mark Sedwill has resigned (or was he pushed?) and David Frost (chief brexit lead) was appointed National Security Adviser in a move that enraged Theresa May. The former prime minister felt that his appointment was unprofessional and that was a political appointment not an independent one and that he lacked experience. Of course in terms of national security we still haven't had that report on Russia and I don't believe The Intelligence and Security Committee has yet been named (not sat since Johnson was appointed as PM).

We have passed the deadline for extending transition and we have now apparently said that negotiations on the end of transition will finish at the end of September.

The bill ending Free movement of people has been signed, amongst much fanfare by the Conservatives saying they have delivered on the Referendum promise. However we might have up to 3million Hong Kongers who we are willing to allow into the country which might not go down too well with those who were unhappy with 'unrestricted EU immigration'.

We also have the demonstration of utter incompetence, outsourcing and lack of coordination and communication from central government and local government in the covid-19 crisis. A national scandal that isn't being properly reported by the press and leave you with the very large question of who is this government serving? If its contract with Deloittes over testing didn't require them to report positive tests to Public Health England, what was the point in the testing? How can this be consistent with 'The Government’s new approach to biosecurity will bring together the UK’s world-leading epidemiological expertise and fuse it with the best analytical capability from across Government in an integrated approach.' and will provide real time analysis and assessment of infection outbreaks at a community level, to enable rapid intervention before outbreaks grow.?

The growing feeling that Brexit is being exploited by this government for personal interests and those of big business at the expense of the general public is one which was feared and grows harder to argue against by the day.

(You really can freeze cheese. Wrap it well in freezer plastic and tin foil. Don't let it fall out of the freezer onto your foot).

@mathanxiety

Yes, you can freeze cheese.

"Through three cheese trees three free fleas flew.
While these fleas flew, freezy breeze blew.
Freezy breeze made these three trees freeze.
Freezy trees made these trees' cheese freeze.
That's what made these three free fleas sneeze."
.....
From 'Fox in Socks', by Dr Seuss.

Are you sure that's not American cheese ? Which could probably fuel nuclear reactors too ?

Cheddar can be a bit more crumbly after being frozen - but otherwise fine.

You can also freeze butter and clotted cream Iirc, double cream is best whipped slightly before freezing (or something like that). Milk can also be frozen - now that most milk is homogenised, that helps.

Would also like to recommend Ghee as a cooking butter alternative. I had never tried it until my friend said one pot had been going in her fridge for 5months - she only used it if she ran out of actual butter. It struck me as a good thing to have and I have several jars now in my Brexit stockpile. I dread having no milk or cheese as dd is addicted to both!

I have taken to freezing milk. More because I sometimes ran out of wine, so obviously needed a cover 'essential item' to pick up in the shop when I went. So I bought extra milk, it is useful to have in the freezer.

quite
my essential item was gin
nobody batted an eyelid

I seem to recall a case of suspected child abuse where, on appeal, it was discovered that the so called "expert" had multiplied the two probabilities (I think it was of two different conditions) and said that therefore the odds were so low that what had happened as a result of that combination couldn't be accidental

That was Roy Meadow appearing in cot death cases, particularly Sally Clark. An egregious miscarriage of justice, poor woman died very young a few years after her release from prison. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Meadow#Cot_death_trial_controversies

@mathanxiety

(You really can freeze cheese. Wrap it well in freezer plastic and tin foil. Don't let it fall out of the freezer onto your foot).

I admit I'm willing to pay extra for English cheese
many do not have the choice

That was the case(s) I was thinking about Rugrats - was dragging it up from the depth of my memory and couldn't remember the details. I remember thinking at the time that even I knew you didn't use probability that way (although I had done Methodology at Uni as part of my Economics degree ) and yet he was supposed to be the "expert"

Grated cheese freezes really well and so do blocks of butter. Can one freeze yoghurt? I might have to start making my own otherwise.

Just had an interesting message from my nurse friend, the one who got what her colleagues suspected was a false negative because they saw her lung scans.She just had a negative antibody test. Her friend who had a positive COVID test mid March also apparently now has no antibodies.

So I'd wager that, for some people at least, antibodies don't last more than 3 months. Complete anecdata obviously but interesting.

"UK alternatives will not be available on 1 January 2021 or on 1 July that year, or anytime soon after."

I'd be astonished if the govt did anything but wave through food imports from the EU
Inspect & delay, so shelves are empty / slap on some tariffs to make them more expensive ? yes, that'll be popular.
No, BJ has a good sense of political self-preservation.

If the ports get logjammed, the govt would soon hold up exports of need be, to let in food

if need be

You can freeze yogurt, but once thawed it may look separated/ watery. You can stir it really well to restore its texture if you want to eat it, or use it in baking or smoothies. It may taste a little more sour than it did when it was fresh.

You need to thaw it in the fridge and return it to the fridge after serving - don't leave it out. Pay attention to Best Before dates - don't leave it in the freezer too long after the expiration date.

You can freeze your own home made yogurt too.

Yes you can freeze yogurt, though I've only tried it with petit filous which technically is cheese, isn't it?

DG - I beg to differ .old Landrovers are in a class if there own (I myself - along with my brother, are real defender fans). The new ones not so much. They have ruined the discovery and defender legacy with their newer models.

I was reading something in Twitter about the herd immunity strategy being a waste of time. As I think only 5 per cent of people in Spain had antibodies. Even in areas where Covid was widespread. This could mean that the antibodies don't last long if people do get them.

The stats in Sweden are the same - only something like 7% of the population

MrsL
Defender 90 Mark 2

Spain ~5%
Italy ~5%
Sweden ~7%
Denmark ~1%
Norway ~1%

UK 6-7 %

Before we had the serology studies to show this low prevalence of antibodies,
the keenest advocates of herd immunity were claiming 40% of the UK probably had them by now

Now they are claiming immunity is via T cells - and still claiming that immunity is high

So we need studies to measure T cells - which we know remain effective for many years
But what if that shows low prevalence too ?

Epicentres will have much higher %
e.g. Gangelt in Germany had 15%, with a death rate of about 0.4%

There was a village in N Italy where 1% of its entire population died of COVID,
so actual death rate of those infected would have been even higher
37% of their population were found to have antibodies

So I'd wager that, for some people at least, antibodies don't last more than 3 months. Complete anecdata obviously but interesting.

I've seen somewhere saying that an early Swedish study has found for every 1 person who has antibodies they now believe 2 have specific T cells which have some level of immunity against covid-19.

Which, if correct, rather changes the game.

I've also seen suggestion that when researchers have looked at people who have tested positive for covid-19 80% of people have very low levels of anti-bodies with 33% only have a trace of antibodies present.

Also, I had a conversation with a friend who works at a local hospital. They have tested all staff who have wanted an antibody test. Of those who took up the offer, 20% have tested positive for antibodies. (In contrast I've seen Grimsby had only 10% of staff). She said that she knew of a couple who had both had the virus, with the man having really high levels of antibodies and the woman have levels which were barely detectable. She said this wasn't uncommon, particularly for women.

Matt Hancock has said that 17% of Londoners appear to have had covid-19 compared to 6% outside the capital. I forget what the figure for hospital staff in London was but I think it was above 40%.

Another study on the Swiss ski resort of Ischgl which has thought to be a key place for the spread of covid-19 throughout Europe has 42.4% of residents with antibodies. This testing was done pretty early on in mid April, with 85% of residents reporting they were unaware they had been infected.

So the picture for this could be much more complicated than it appears on the surface. Key hubs - like hospitals - which have high rates of antibodies could limit the spread in future.

I think the only thing we do know, is we don't know enough about how immunity to this works.

Tuesday papers - the dogs in the wind are the best value !

Newsnight are covering the subject of immunity now.