Westminstenders: How many Dead Cats Do You Get In A Thunderstorm?

[RedToothBrush]

It never rains. It only pours.

What I wouldn't give for a bit of old fashioned drizzle right now.

4 years on and we are facing a torment of calamities. Brexit, serious political instability in the USA ahead of an election that Trump will refuse to lose even if he does, trade deals with the rest of the world put on 6 week deadlines, anger within the commonwealth, a sick weak dependent PM on the back foot and ill briefed, rampant growing corruption in the Tory party, woke nut jobs out of touch with reality, councils on the brink of bankruptcy and the whole covid-19 crisis.

and there'll be more of this too - putting the costs onto the employees
Some have already had to take pay cuts, but this is a blatant threat:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/01/most-ryanair-job-losses-can-be-avoided-if-staff-take-pay-cut-says-michael-oleary

Ryanair’s chief executive has told staff the airline can avoid many of its planned 3,500 job losses if they agree to pay cuts of up to 20%.

Michael O’Leary, who announced plans to axe 3,000-3,500 jobs in May,
said on Wednesday that across-the-board pay cuts could be an alternative to job losses.

Peregrina
The tyre inflation stuff is a PITA but its better than "run flat"
and either way we have a subscription to AutoAid who will get us home safely.
Multiple levels of backup provide resilience.
Sadly such ideas were blocked out of Government years ago.

Multiple levels of backup provide resilience.

Some of which is shared amongst many people (i.e. communism). Something Thatcherite economists view as worse than necrophiliac zoophilia.

“It's a pity that this Covid crisis has come when it has and not a couple of years into Johnson's premiership.”

Hopefully few people think there is a good time for a crisis of this scale.

Hopefully few people think there is a good time for a crisis of this scale.

Doesn't matter what people think. It was still going to happen. As is the next.

The problem for the government is that it is their job to do the planning for such events.

Now I know it's probably a little outre, and does involve some pretty deep PhD level understanding of the philosophy of politics, but if you were to list the Job of government in a series of descending priorities, then you won't get many disagreements if you go:

1. Protect the population.
2. something else ...
3. something else (again).

If anyone cares to suggest a different no. 1 priority for the entire concept of government, they are free to post it here.

So the current crop of crap can't even do the most basic job of government.

Everything - everything else a government does is either to support the #1 job, or to actually implement it.

Taxation ? Raise money to protect the population
Regulate trade (both internal and external) ? to protect the population
Manage the armed forces ? to protect the population
Criminal justice ? to protect the population

Are people starting to get the idea ?

Build roads ? That's to provide the infrastructure that enables trade which provides taxation which is used to protect the population

Both Boris and Trump are leading governments which have singley failed to protect the population. And frankly, if a government can't discharge it's main if not only) function, the maybe we do need to assemble outside Westminster. drag the fuckers out for the national razor and put some heads on spikes.

And don't dare bleat to me about how it's a tough job. This isn't some gulag. No one forced them to take the job.

A government that cannot protect the population is no government at all. It's a very conspicuous waste of time and space.

Now I've got all angry again.

Very well said DGR. Thank you for articulating what really shouldn't need saying, especially at a time like this 😡

@DGRosetti, Gin helps. Or anything else you fancy that's more than 20% proof and palatable.

I still think the pandemic is accelerating everything so crap journalism, decision-making, accountability and local control is being highlighted now, instead of a few years down the line. It's the difference between fast erosion and rockfall.

God, I wish I could take a peek at 2030. It's the unexpected consequences that hurt you.

Lockdown is being done badly in the UK

A few ideas from Germany;

"[the] workers are almost entirely migrant labourers from Bulgaria, Poland and Romania.They live clustered together in workers' accommodation and now they are living under strict quarantine."

"Around 2,000 staff living in the nearby village of Verl are now literally fenced off from the world, with metal gates erected in front of their high-rise flats and terraced houses."

"Police and security officials keep guard. No-one can leave for at least a week."

"We're European as well. We have rights. You can't put us behind a fence," one Bulgarian man shouts."

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53177628

"22 JUN The owners of Europe’s largest meat-processing plant must be held to account for a mass coronavirus outbreak that has infected more than 1,500 of its workers, Germany’s labour minister has said."

"Hubertus Heil said an entire region had been “taken hostage” by the factory’s failure to protect its employees, most of whom come from Romania and Bulgaria."

"Health authorities have accused Tönnies, the family-run business that owns the plant, of breaking regulations around physical distancing that were introduced to dampen the spread of coronavirus. Authorities say Tönnies has also been reluctant to give them access to workers’ contact details, allegedly hampering the tracking and tracing of the workers and their contacts.Tönnies said delays in handing over personnel data had been due to Germany’s strict data protection laws."

"The 17.93 million population of NRW, Germany’s most populous state, may have to be placed under a fresh lockdown, Armin Laschet, the state leader, said."

“It cannot be ruled out at the moment,”

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/22/meat-plant-must-be-held-to-account-covid-19-outbreak-germany

Incidentally, I had a weird tummy-churning penny-drop moment yesterday. No sure I like it.

If (as I do) you support the rights of the Scottish people to determine whether they wish to remain in the Union, then - whether you like it or not - you are effectively also supporting English independence. The two are (ironically) inseparable.

I'm thinking that was the prism through which the poll yesterday was being viewed.

When it comes to protecting the population, Scotland appear to be doing well. Like a real government should.

Can I check my understanding there re Pillar 1 and Pillar 2.

Pillar 1 are cases found in hospital so basically anyone who has had symptoms and has gone for a test.
Pillar 2 are cases in the community so more random tests. Are we saying that Pillar 2 cases are basically asymptomatic cases? Because that would make sense and I would have thought it was well known that many cases are going round in the community wo any symptoms at all....

Well said, DG 👍

I would have said exactly the same as DGR - when there is a crisis, you want people who are competent in Government, not ideologues with little ability mouthing three word slogans.

@QuestionMarkNow

Can I check my understanding there re Pillar 1 and Pillar 2.

Pillar 1 are cases found in hospital so basically anyone who has had symptoms and has gone for a test.
Pillar 2 are cases in the community so more random tests. Are we saying that Pillar 2 cases are basically asymptomatic cases? Because that would make sense and I would have thought it was well known that many cases are going round in the community wo any symptoms at all....

I had understood it to be pillar 1 as hospital tests carried out on inpatients (?staff too) but pillar 2 are those local drive in centers 111 send you to if you are phoning about being symptomatic. So unless you are being tested for the first time by a hospital, you aren't appearing in pillar 1 data.

Lockdown means lockdown, clav
and this will become the new temporary normal everywhere ... or if governments wimp out, it will be back to national lockdowns

Ever since the main lockdown, anyone in Germany who tested positive was informed they were legally required to stay home,no going out for any reason
(barring house catching fire etc)

Anyone found breaking this was subject to large fines and unlimited civil damages with prison for persistent offenders

This latest outbreak was caused by deliberate disregard of social distancing rules by the Tönnies owners,
who are being crucified in the press
and can expect to suffer absolute swingeing penalties

The workers are pissed off about being locked down because of a shit employer who put profits before people,

... but a virus doesn't care about "fair"
Some areas weren't obeying the local lockdown, so they had to be sealed off

Questionmark
Pillar 2 also includes everybody and anybody who is ill but not hospitalised
in some cases that is pretty sick
feel shit, book a test, never hear from them again

Hear Hear DGRossetti about the fundamental failing of our current "Government"

Why did the deloittes contract not require it to report covid-19 positive cases to PHE?

What the fuck was the point in testing if it wasn't reporting to PHE, y'know the body merely responsible for the management of health resources in a public health emergency.

I've seen it said that there was a claim that private contractors couldn't share this data with PHE because of GDPR. The problem being that the exemptions to GDPR cover in the national interest and issues of national emergency so they were more than OK to share with PHE without problem. The claim seems to be one designed to undermine and question the existence of GDPR at the expense of privacy elsewhere.

I'm on another thread about this, and how local authorities haven't had access to this data.

What is striking is how it was said that we would soon be able to look up where there was a localised outbreak 'a bit like checking the weather or the pollen count' was how it was reported. (relates to Johnson's 10th May address to the nation and release of documents detailing how we would exit lockdown)

Strangely enough Peston wrote this article immediately afterwards:
www.itv.com/news/2020-05-10/it-is-all-about-the-r-writes-robert-peston/?fbclid=IwAR3BJEJx591EowlRUCc9utUzyuyy_EyyINFbAUoYCGS_GTaOoB9qMxEDe3w
Why Boris Johnson's coronavirus lockdown update is all about the R number - the reproduction number of Covid-19

It's footnote was:
But whether it will work in practice depends on a whole host of imponderables, most notably whether the government really can in just a few weeks create its new “Covid Alert System” run by a “Joint Biosecurity Centre” that is robust and reliable at determining in real time how many of us have the virus, rather than with the very serious lags that prevail today.

We are pinning our hopes on the technical competence of the government to tell the difference between its Rs and its elbow.

I think we know the answer to that now.

Question mark - my understanding after some digging late last night, so pillar one test are those carried out by public health England - I think from reading, these are people admitted to hospital.
Pillar two is anyone that has one of the 3 symptoms identified who has rung up and booked a test. It's the drive throughs ,the home kits. ( there was one other example, can't remember now). I believe that these are all done by private contractors, it is not clear that public health England has even had access to this data.

OK thank you.
That is very different than what I initially understood then.....

How n earth is it OK for LA not to know pillar 2 numbers?
And why are we still going on about pillar 1 numbers anyway?

As an aside, has anyone have any ideas about how many people are currently self isolating following the track and trace system and one person being diagnosed as covid positive?
Is the track and trace working only with pillar 1 people or also with pillar 2?

BigChocFrenzy
I didn't have time to look at all your links yesterday;
Germany -The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis).
Probably a relatively minor observation but the influenza season appears to extend into April on the continent;

^"This year’s influenza epidemic, which is a possible influencing factor, is deemed to be over since mid-March. Usually, waves of influenza have an impact on mortality figures until mid-April."

Destatis appear to use a four year average rather than a five year average.

www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/05/PE20_194_12621.html?nn=396932

I have more and more the feeling that basically the handling of covid is left to individuals.
For them to self isolate if they have been tested positive, for them to tell people close to them just in case and for them to stand up to their employers if said company insist they shoud still be at work....

Local lockdowns - like national lockdowns - should be done asap, or the lockdown will have to be much wider and longer

It seems that even the national govt have to wait several days to know where Pillar2 positives are,
then they appear to delay telling the local govt - who should be the ones organising everything on their patch

And just to cheer up the anti immigration Brexiters ....
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53246899

Oh look
'a but Germany' strawman

Why do we have to analyse Germany in order to ignore and turn a blind eye to our own utter incompetence and failure of management?

Germany are probably making decisions I don't like, but our decisions or lack of, have killed thousands who didn't need to die if there had been this thing called competence going on.

Nadine Dorries' response - that Deloittes'contract does not require it to report either to PHE or to Local Authorities - just goes to prove that the contract was a tick box exercise for show by the (WM) Government, has sweet FA to do with public health and controlling the virus and was indeed about giving private sector buddies valuable contracts without proper due process

I know that the Scottish Government was frustrated in the early days (and still is?) that it couldn't get the information from the drive through centres/the Lighthouse testing centres "because GDPR" and/or the results, when they do come through are significantly delayed to the point of being useless for taking effective action

....and yet they get blamed for not "doing" enough tests or getting results back quickly enough, even though these were WM contracts