Meet the Other Phone. Child-safe in minutes.

Meet the Other Phone.
Child-safe in minutes.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westminstenders: How many Dead Cats Do You Get In A Thunderstorm?

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 24/06/2020 14:14

It never rains. It only pours.

What I wouldn't give for a bit of old fashioned drizzle right now.

4 years on and we are facing a torment of calamities. Brexit, serious political instability in the USA ahead of an election that Trump will refuse to lose even if he does, trade deals with the rest of the world put on 6 week deadlines, anger within the commonwealth, a sick weak dependent PM on the back foot and ill briefed, rampant growing corruption in the Tory party, woke nut jobs out of touch with reality, councils on the brink of bankruptcy and the whole covid-19 crisis.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
44
JeSuisPoulet · 24/06/2020 20:49

MShip - yours was a very heartwarming positive post, thank you!
I should now stop posting and get back to my wine and cheese Grin

prettybird · 24/06/2020 20:57

I'll answer respls questions at face value re what Scottish independence would mean for

1. Scottish people in Scotland?
Self-determination. Control over our own affairs as we would have a say in all our affairs and not be vetoed by WM (NB: in the EU, the UK never lost its sovereignty and had a veto over significant matters. We don't have that in the UK Sad

2. Non Scottish people in Scotland?
If they are resident at the time of independence, they can choose to take Scottish independence if they want. Otherwise, they can retain their existing citizenship (dual if allowed by their current nationality). Scotland as a country is needing more immigration - it's one of its frustrations that it has no control over immigration policy. So it is highly unlikely that an independent Scotland will pursue the (UK) Home Office's "hostile policy" towards potential immigrants.

3. Scottish people within the remaining UK?
Presumably they are currently UK citizens. They can either retain their UK citizenship or they can choose to take Scottish citizenship. Scotland will allow dual citizenship as does currently the UK, so therefore this shouldn't be an issue (unless rUK chooses to make it one). When Ireland became independent, people could choose either or both and the Common Travel Area was created, so it would be spiteful curmudgeonly if rUK did otherwise.

4. Scottish people overseas outside of British Isles?
The Scottish Government proposed in "Scotland's Future" (the lengthy, c460 page tome that was produced well in advance of the Referendum that has already been mentioned ) that anyone with Scottish grandparents could claim Scottish citizenship (and would also allow dual citizenship). This would be similar to how Ireland deals with its diaspora.

And 5. if I may also ask is this because of the current UK mess Brexit & Covid or despite?
#I voted Yes in 2014 for all sorts of reasons, mentioned above (self-determination) and because I didn't trust the Conservatives re the EU a distrust that was proven true Sad

Going back

In the current climate what hypothetically would an independent Scotland look like?

No idea: the point is that we would then we able to vote for a colour of government of our choosing (see above re self-determination). So that will be up to the people of Scotland. I suspect it would tend more to the left than WM - but it doesn't have to be Wink It's whoever we choose to vote for Grin Labour can re-invent itself as a party for Scotland and not just a branch office. I might even vote for them again. The Conservatives could rediscover their "One Nation"paternalistic roots and stop being such right wing bastards (I still don't see me ever voting for them though Wink).

Would a totally independent Scotland be politically and economically separated or independent from the other remaining British home nations?
That depends on WM. Its attitude towards the jointly owned BoE suggests it would've obstructive, so Scotland will end up having to go it alone. Like Ireland did with the punt , it may shadow the £ Stirling for a while before diverging. It has to have its own Central Bank to join the Eurozone (which is not actually, contrary to what some say, a requirement to join the EU - indeed, you need to prove fiscal prudence before joining the Eurozone)

What would be the preferred position for business and social links with other European and transcontinental nations globally including the remaining Commonwealth?

See above re immigration. We need more of it and don't see the issue that WM seems to have with certain Commonwealth countries having too much access Hmm

The current position is that an independent Scotland would seek to rejoin the EU as quickly as possible. It currently meets all the requirements as its laws are, by definition, aligned (both from pre-Brexit Day and because no contradictory laws can be implemented during transition). It is the Scottish Government's intention to maintain the acquis communautaire (which as a constituent member of the UK which at least up until 31 December has to abide by and implement any and all EU laws as a former member and as part of the transition agreement). Post 31 December, Scotland may have to repeal and/or re-instate some laws as a result of the WM "power grab" in the Withdrawal Bill which allows them to override devolved powers in order to sign US trade deals Sad

NB: there is no queue per se to join the EU. All you need to do is meet its requirements - primarily the acquis communautaire - which at the moment we do.

Unfortunately, because of WM trying to wriggle out of its commitments in the WA re the border between NI and Ireland, and the way it is trying to renege in the "Level Playing Field" commitments in the PD, I envisage that there will after all need to be a hard border between Scotland and England Sad (although being much shorter and with very few road crossings, much easier than the NI/Ireland one), as WM doesn't seem to understand that "everlasting cake with a cherry on top" is not possible, and that the value of the Single Market as a whole to the EU is worth more than (English) exceptionalism. Sad
It might be an opportunity for Rosyth and the West Coast deep water ports to re-develop themselves Grin

I think I've managed to answer that with a straight bat and without rancour. Grin

This is my 2nd attempt to post as my first one disappeared in to the MN ether Hmm

No, this is my 3rd attempt at my second attempt also disappeared into the MN ether although at least this time I remembered to copy and paste before pressing "Post" Angry

No this is my 4th attempt, now done via copying, pasting and emailing to myself so that I can post it on my laptop
Angry

ResIpsaLoquiturInterAlia · 24/06/2020 21:25

@ mathanxiety and re UK Brexit our look (not all doom and gloom!)

We the UK the last I care to check is:

  • still a top ten economy with a hot seat at the UN permanent security council, G7 etc
  • still limited pockets of world excellence including advance education and university research, high end manufacturing, technology and industrial design, bio tech and pharmaceutical (despite Covid short Cummings), international capital and financial markets sector specialisms including investment banking, capital markets, fin tech, hedge funds and wealth/tax management, global reinsurance, professional legal, litigation and arbitration, tax, corporate accountancy, management consultancy, other specialist professional services, green eco tech, arts and marketing, our military training and equipment design and manufacturing is world class too only surpassed by US.

So in short from a humble Cantab city type I don’t necessarily agree we need to be so super modest polite British and sell ourselves too desperately short!

Yes for Covid we are a circus but not as bad as US etc. We have still the most prized original common law legal system and I know from fellow Oxbridge types still in the fellowship and further research game that we can still hold our own versus the likes of Harvard and Yale etc but just out gunned on the bean counter count for world class talent! Obviously tech as we know it is Stanford and Silicon Valley with many British brains there incidentally.

Come on Brits rule Brextania and don’t always think we are forever crap! US is a dysfunctional mess and at least as morally challenging our history is - we still have an Anglo sphere to knock on some doors and barter some of the above!

We are still one of the main military trouble makers so if we switch the investments away from weapons of mass destruction we can pay off some of the Covid loan book etc etc.

Think positive people - onwards and upwards as we are not as crap as some think!

Do note some above is light hearted jest so don’t feel urge to bash. Overall we can sell and do a few things better than most overseas!

DGRossetti · 24/06/2020 21:32

Speaking of the economy

www.ft.com/content/4fd04fd9-7209-4b7c-97a1-97466f226159

Pound is becoming an emerging market currency, says BofA analyst

We believe sterling is in the process of evolving into a currency that resembles the underlying reality of the British economy: small and shrinking with a growing dual deficit problem similar to more liquid [emerging market] currencies,”

QuestionMarkNow · 24/06/2020 21:33

You see Resl yes the UK is all those things BUT

  • ranking of universties and research has dived down since the vote
  • the british pound is currently behaving like a developped country currency
  • With covid we are much worse than the US. Have a look at the number of death per millions (the one registered by the government, not the excess deaths). We have one the worst result than any other country, way above the US, brazil etc... (Total numbers can't be compared. The US might have total number that is higher but it's also a much bigger country!)
  • As an economy, the UK has gone down.
  • Evaluation for the next few months/year is that the NHS we will get will be on par with what you get in developped counries. Aka minimum treatments due to the backlog AND the fcat the NHS was already under heavy strain in the first place.

So yes it is still 'good' but its the trend that is an issue. The movement downwards towards a 'so good' position.

QuestionMarkNow · 24/06/2020 21:35

DRG we read the same article....

Pepperwort · 24/06/2020 21:37

Who to? What will you sell?

BigChocFrenzy · 24/06/2020 21:40

Thanks, red 💐

You left out one concern I've been keeping a wary corner of my eye on for sevral weeks:

the rumbling China-India border clashes and possibility of another border war beween them

imo Pakistan has too many problems to risk another full-scale war with India over Kashmir,
but China might decide to swat Modi - who to be fair is a nasty religious fascist who is frequently provocative

BigChocFrenzy · 24/06/2020 21:44

Pretty Your cats always seem to cuddle up to each other, best buddies presumably siblings - but not all of those get on so well !

Auld Your cat has the camouflage colouring to be a good hunter

prettybird · 24/06/2020 21:44

We have still the most prized original common law legal system and I know from fellow Oxbridge types....

Did they not teach you at Oxbridge that Scotland has a different legal system? Confused

ResIpsaLoquiturInterAlia · 24/06/2020 21:49

@ QuestionMarkNow

Noted and agreed.

However unlike the former glorified colonial days, we where not that bad in recent times where we? Seem to recall we sort of pulled through the last city crash when many financials/ casino banks were toast!

The projection sure - it’s not great being slopping downhill. However once formerly a force for good we still have the basic DNA to pull us through these forthcoming and current dark times - surely!!! Some of us have yet to forget all the stuff picked up at uni and post grad professional associations. Being a mum does obviously dumb you down a bit professionally but the basic foundations are still functional!

After numerous previous negative we are crap posts (above) I was starting to think - Is there some reasoning to those thoughts? After a few stiff ones, I thought sod this let’s regroup and see what we got! Financially we are so lucky to actually have control of our money and banking system and not euro. Sterling may be not performing well (I was previously in Cali and it was 2 US $ to 1 UK £!) but we at least have some limited tools in the box to tinker!

borntobequiet · 24/06/2020 21:51

Hmmmm PMK
Some weird writing styles appearing on these threads

ResIpsaLoquiturInterAlia · 24/06/2020 21:58

@ prettybird

Yes I apologise unreservedly and bow to your Scots Law! However, for all intents and purposes we are still handcuffed to EU legislation!

By the way spouse is Edinburgh alumni and loving the days up in Morningside if that is familiar to you? Personally would have ended up in St Andrews or possibly Durham if not usual suspects!

No offense to lovely Scots! You are still part of UK. Ship building, oil and gas still cool and of course the sea treasures off coast that the pesky French are eyeing up! Should do a deal French wine for Scottish seafood!

QuestionMarkNow · 24/06/2020 22:09

However, for all intents and purposes we are still handcuffed to EU legislation!

The reality is that, if the UK wants to trade with the EU, it will have to align itself with thr EU. Just like the US has had to accept that if they want to have customers in the EU and store data they hve to follow GDPR (I remember the shock on the american side lol).

Until (and if it ever does, because the reality of geography) the UK has developped an economy where most of its dealings is outside of the EU, it will be bound to a lot of EU rules and legislation.

JeSuisPoulet · 24/06/2020 22:13

@born there's a new squirrel in the garden and it's revealing itself rather tantalisingly slowly. Squirrel strip tease, if you will Grin It's been lifting nuts from the regulars at the feeder but it's had to shake it quite a lot to get a response.

prettybird · 24/06/2020 22:18

I'm from Glasgow Wink

....although I am a St Andrews alumna.

And I (and I think most who contribute to these threads) will have to agree to differ about "being handcuffed to EU legislation" Hmm Until Brexit, we not only contributed to, and more often than not were the leading proponents of, EU legislation Confused

Not quite sure what you mean about "doing a deal [of] French wine for Scottish seafood" Confused At the moment, the majority of Scottish exports already goes to the EU - so the impact of a No Deal Brexit will be catastrophic. And we can't just do a deal with France - as I'm sure you know.

DrBlackbird · 24/06/2020 22:31

Yes, agree I was wondering what was going on re: new squirrels. Anyhow, I'm here to say that the claim the UK has one advance education and university research is left over from some years gone by now. UK HE is / has been at first gradually distingegrating but more latterly picking up speed. Finally killed off by leaving the EU and the end to so many European wide research initiatives and access to EU research funds that we do not see being replaced by our current UK government. In my department alone we have lost amazing colleagues who saw the writing on the wall and left to return to home countries. So we can strike that one off the list.

prettybird · 24/06/2020 22:36

I thought the regulars on here would be interested to know that dh and I saw lots of real squirrels when we were out on our walk today, plus a couple in the garden Grin must be the time of year Wink

During Lockdown, we've been enjoying watching the birds in the pond at the local park. It's an old boating pond that has been "wilded" with an island put in. So far, we watched 6 mallard ducklings grow up -
(nearly but not quite full grown), 3 ducklings about 2 or 3 weeks younger and then 2 days ago we saw a new mallard with 2 really tiny ducklings.

We've also been watching 2 coot chicks go from being fluffy chicks being fed by their parents to being more independent, losing their fluff and their beaks are starting to change from black to white.

Isn't nature wonderful Grin

BigChocFrenzy · 24/06/2020 22:36

"Seem to recall we sort of pulled through the last city crash"

The UK was harder hit than most of Europe
By 2015, Uk average "real wage" was still well below what it was before the 2008 Finanical Crisis
Only Greece did as badly

This drop is likely one of the things that contributed in the referendum the following year to people feeling pissed off and ripped off by "the elite"

Westminstenders: How many Dead Cats Do You Get In A Thunderstorm?
ListeningQuietly · 24/06/2020 22:39

borntobe
goshawks eat squirrels too Grin

BigChocFrenzy · 24/06/2020 22:42

So far, the UK seems to be aiming for the COVID double:
to be one of the worst hit by deaths / million and also by the drop - and duration - of the consequent recession

The UK's recession is likely to be a Depression when No Deal Brexit is added on to the problems facing UK businesses already battered by COVID

(Technically:

a recession is 2+ quarters of negative GDP

a depression is sustained recession,
for 3+ years, or a decline in real GDP of at least 10% in a year)

DrBlackbird · 24/06/2020 22:45

Seems like boosterism has come to MN, but IMO it is not helpful to pretend everything will be fine.

In any event, I don't share the opinion that being a mum has dumbed me down professionally. This may intended to be a joke, okay, but I don't find it funny to reaffirm a stereotype that denigrates so many intelligent women. It's just not needed.

We have women and men coming from a wide range of amazing backgrounds, job, and careers contributing to these threads, which is what makes Westminders the source of insightful political and social commentary it is. No need to do anything other than celebrate that fact. For me, this thread has been hugely affirming as well as informative in finding sane, sober, and thoughtful voices on what's happening in the UK and abroad.

BigChocFrenzy · 24/06/2020 22:50

DrBlackbird iirc you had COVID - are you fully recovered now ?

ResIpsaLoquiturInterAlia · 24/06/2020 22:55

@ prettybird

Thank you for answering my questions re Scottish Independence. I now take a more balanced view on this and appreciative of your reasoned explanations.

I can now sense some of the potential tangibles you may enjoy if somehow you managed to facilitate a fresh vote presumably with the obvious Brexshit material change and claim that to be of a once in a lifetime magnitude.

As a Brit (and not simply English) naturally we would feel why would you essentially divorce from the rest of the UK and then rejoin the EU so technically not be independent in the fullest sense simplistically speaking. Naturally if the rest ie Northern Ireland also leave to rejoin Eire and then that will just leave England with Wales. Granted much of the UK’s GDP and exports are English but why try to leave again if half want to remain (as with Brexit). As with the recent series of national general elections what hypothetically if you had another go post Brexit and still no we all want to be mates and loyal to the UK? Can you guarantee a leave vote outcome in another Scottish Independence referendum? Probably a small majority yes if only “guaranteed” no EU rejoining complications and a viable UK settlement! Still not convinced if independent Scotland will be better off economically apart from having taken back some control.I am not with respect convinced the numbers ie economically add up to your advantage.

This is obviously a very fascinating subject and one I would have rejoiced in in former uni union debates but now mum brain and occasionally functioning as effectively as before especially as Covid wfh is pretty much flexible productivity!

Enjoying a wee single malt so cheers and thanks for the trouble of replying above. I will read it properly when time permitting!

However as a Brit I prefer you to stay and if you go or attempt to leave I really feel it should be voted on by all Brits. Not sure how the numbers will work but possibly some formula along the lines of current devolved government weighted funding?

Anyway these are very rough basic thoughts as I know next to nothing on this as clear by my ramble here and reason for the initial basic questions.

BigChocFrenzy · 24/06/2020 22:57

Another strong capable woman forced out - by racism:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/24/bame-ex-officer-claims-racism-forced-her-out-met-police?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

A former officer for the Metropolitan police has lodged two claims with an employment tribunal against the force,
citing a hostile and “racist” work environment that forced her to resign.

The Pakistani Muslim woman, who has requested not to be named,
claims she was forced to resign from her role as a superintendent in January 2020.
At that time, she was the most senior female BAME and Muslim officer in the Metropolitan police.
.....
The former employee was also one of those who reported a drawing of a swastika at a police stationn^ to senior staff in 2019.

In her complaint, she claims that after she and others raised concerns over the swastika,
senior staff at the Met tried to silence them and failed to investigate the drawing.

No action was taken over the Nazi symbol.
In March this year, a 21-year-old Met police officer from the Edmonton department was arrested on suspicion of being a member of a banned group linked to rightwing terrorism.