Westminstenders: No pubs till Christmas?

[RedToothBrush]

Today the news has moved towards acknowledging covid-19 reality: Nicola Sturgeon has explicitly stated that some social distancing will carry on until the new year in all likelihood.

When Matt Hancock asked if this was true for England too, he refused to say yes but he said that Scotland was working from the same framework as England.

In case anyone does still need this spelling out, this means the outlook for the hospitality and leisure industries is bleak.

There are extremely unlikely to be many enjoying a holiday in the sun any time soon, whether it be in Devon or Spain.

We won't be celebrating birthdays in restaurants nor having a pint in the pub.

Conversations on the doorstep from a couple of metres away is as good as it gets.

That means if you can't adapt you may not survive.

To add into the mix changes to customs to those companies who are operating seems insanity. But that's a political not a scientific decision to be made.

Whether reality in this will kick in, in the next six weeks or so before EU budgetary decisions relating to an extension have to be made remains to be seen.

Until then, there is no news but covid-19.

My post about Germany was from Chris Smyth from The Times, sorry can't work out how to copy and paste full Twitter posts.

...and according to Sky, The Treasury have told Branson to "Go away and come up with some fresh thinking."

That's the truth headline everyone will remember when they're asked "Did the government bail out Branson ?". They'll never see the small back-page piece tomorrow, where it's announced he's getting whatever he asked for.

I don’t think any government would get it 100% right from wherever they started from to be honest.

I don't know, New Zealand have done well.

They'll need to keep tight border controls for some time, of course.

New Zealand are a demographically TINY country with a HUGE land area
that is hundreds of miles from anywhere else
They have shut themselves in their panic room and waited for the zombies to wander off
but they have not 'cured' anything
as COVID is still out here and will be till it wears out

Yes listening / they are a lot smaller - but it's hardly like there are not intense urban areas. The difference is NZ acted very decisively very early on. Was it the right thing to do? Only time will tell on that one.
I will also watch intently what happens with the lockdown.

What they have done incredibly well is protect elderly in care homes or retirement villages (the concept as seen in NZ does not seem to exist here). They essentially shut those communities before the country went into lockdown, so there haven't been the wholesale deaths of the elderly that we have seen here. They certainly didn't persue discharging potentially Covid + patients into elderly care facilities

@ListeningQuietly NZ haven't "cured" anything but they have saved many unecessary deaths. I'm sure if you had lost someone due to COVID you would be wishing our PM had acted on the same premise. It's not as if we didn't know how to do the exact same thing, we just left it far far too late and didn't use the time to prepare for anything.

The UK government has been utterly shite (single gloves are not single items of PPE)
But cutting off from the rest of the world is NOT an option for most countries
nor is it a long term solution

I completely get that listening- and the NZ government's decision will probably cause my families business to go under , as an important part of the business involved air freight into Asia- we have the product, we just have no way of getting it there. It's awful waiting for that phone call to say it has finally gone.

The NZ economy is very reliant on tourism - but we are heading into there low season...... and tbh I am not sure NZ'ers not involved in the tourist industry would be happy with the boarders open at the moment. As before they shut boarders tourist were not following the guidelines- unsurprisingly I suppose.

I am not sure if you have ever flown to NZ ? But bio security is something that the country takes VERY seriously - I have travelled a lot and I don't think I have been to a country with comparable levels of bio security checks. Having said that - worldwide covid19 is going nowhere - so what's the long term strategy? I guess they are really hoping that a vaccine is found, proved effective and can be produced in enough quantities, that at least to start with they can insist that travellers have that..... until then it's a 14 day quarantine. Which rather puts paid to seeing our family for the next 2 years.

On the plus side my in-laws are alive and protected. MIL highly vulnerable, FIL quite vulnerable.

Just about the population the urban areas are very dense .... certainly dense enough that if you have de Covid moving amongst the population it would take hold- there's just not a lot of them.....there is a huge amount of space - with just nothing..... It does not mean Covid is and was not a threat. It's made it into Amazonian tribes ffs.

It really comes down to how much a life is worth....

VioletParis There are some insistent voices in the Uk insisting that Germany will have to tighten up lockdown again

this is not being discussed in Germany;
the political pressure here atm is to relax more quickly, but Merkel remains cautious

New cases and deaths are still falling quite quickly
e.g. Sunday's new deaths even went just below 100, the first time in several weeks, although they went back up to 150 yesterday
Cases average around 1-2k per day, deaths 100-200

which suggests that the R0 is probably still below 1, as the calculated range is given as 0.8-1.1

Hospitals here have huge free capacity, so Merkel can afford to wait and see for a while

What may also change things are the full statistics for March, which are due on Thursday
If they find a large number of "excess deaths", as the UK ONS found, that could cause Merkel to brake

However, if the overall deaths didn't rise much and the deaths are close to RKI figures,
then relaxation will continue

Contender When I had my first outing to the farm shop on Monday

• where I sprayed myself against greenfly ! -

I bought a big bag of produce & eggs and strawberry wine-, which came to over €25

I asked if they took plastic of any kind and the farmer was susprised - cash only !

My online frozen groceries come to nearly € 100 every 3 week and they also expect cash, but have started to allow credit card online, no paypal

However, when they didn't have 1 item, I received the cash back

masks

==> Are masks being worn / recommended in the UK ?
The govt here regard them as an important measure as lockdown is relaxed a little

Anyone above the age of 6 years old must wear "mouth-nose-protection", i.e. a mask or face covering,
when unavoidably mixing with people outside the household

when in / on:

. public transport incl platforms / stops,
. taxis
. post offices,
. shops, malls

(there are a few exceptions for severe disability, asthma etc but must carry documentation for this)

Penalties (depending on state) are fines up to a €150, which could double to €300 for repeat offenders.
I think one of the 16 German states still only has masks as "strong advice" rather than mandatory though

Quite a few people wear masks outside all the time
I do, on my long daily Rhine walks

The trouble with masks I've noticed is that people don't socially distance as much if they are wearing them. If you have something ill fitting which doesn't meet standards a false sense of security seems to be kicking in.

Dh has n95 masks from cycling into Manchester from a while back. I've tried it on and it just does not fit. So he's done shopping.

I guess this means that I'm not going shopping for a while. DS turns 6 in a couple of months. The idea of getting him to wear a mask and keep it on is hilarious. Not happening.

Speaking of shopping, the recruitment drive on fruit and veg pickers has fallen flat on its arse. We are still about 75000 people short. And there not much being said about it.

That plus the signs that exiting lockdown isn't as easy as thought in Germany, suggests shit is going to hit the fan here soon. We are being prepared to accept that a second wave isn't just possible, nor just likely but beginning to look inevitable.

We've seen nothing yet. Things will start to get bumpier soon I suspect.

There are multiple concerns with masks. Not least that they make you touch your face more and fiddling with them can render them ineffective and put virus onto your fingertips. The moist atmosphere inside masks worn might even increase viral load. People in UK haven't had the cultural use of them to fully understand use and cleanliness (fabric needs to be boiled after each use so no reusing) IMO and quick behavioural change isn't something we are well known for (remember the outrage at being told how to wash hands?). I have pointed out the advert for COVID from the govt has a nurse with it on under her nose and anecdotally I have seen selfies on fb with a person wearing it like this. IF masks are introduced we need a proper public health campaign to ensure they don't just make people less risk adverse. I think masks need a lot more discussion and testing, let alone information on a public level to ensure people don't actively make the virus spread inadvertently.

"signs that exiting lockdown isn't as easy as thought in Germany"

red Merkel has warned from the start that relaxation must be v cautious and in stages
People here trust her a lot, so noone thought it easy

BUT
it is noticeable that all the alarm of possible R0 rising is so far coming only from Uk commentators

• I suspect from those who are pressing the govt & Boris to keep the Uk in lockdown

While new cases & deaths continue to fall here, currently around 1000k cases and 150 deaths daily,
Merkel is resisting pressure from some politicians to speed up, not to brake

This is because the German economy is predicted to contract by 6.6% by EOY
1 in 6 retailers are already in danger of insolvency
as are 70% of restaurants and hotels if this continues

She has very high public support atm, so she can continue being v cautious

However, she won't want to revert to stricter lockdown unless the cases & deaths trend starts to climb,
or unless the March stats on Thursday show high excess deaths,

It is strange that most other countries are recommending masks:
most European countries, USA, Asian countries ....

People in the Uk always seem to assume their fellow citizens will be incompetent

King’s College London study is a cluster analysis of lockdown opinion^

The young are the resisters !
(probably realised they are being sacrificed for everyone else. Again)

https://www.kcl.ac.uk/policy-institute/assets/Coronavirus-in-the-UK-cluster-analysis.pdf

"The Accepting, The Suffering and The Resisting, based on previously published data from a survey of 2,250 UK residents aged 18-75, from 1- 3 April 2020, carried out by Ipsos MORI."

There are three clusters of attitudes, expectations and behaviours relating to coronavirus among the UK public:

those accepting the current situation
those suffering as a result of it and
those resisting it.

Members of the three clusters are distinguished by

their levels of support for the lockdown measures and their compliance with them,
by how well they are coping under the current circumstances,
by the extent to which they are following official guidance,
and by their expectations about how those circumstances will change in the future.

BCF I think you might be concerned if half of Germany had voted for something as foolish as Brexit and even more so if they were still blindly calling for it years later, despite all of the evidence.

It reminds me of when you see people making sandwiches wearing gloves and then using the same gloves to take cash at the tills.
Risk and risk perception are key here.
If you don't teach people how to use an intervention properly it is less likely to work effectively.

bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12879-019-4109-x a recent study highlighting contamination issues on medical grade masks (not just a bit of cotton most people will use if asked to make their own).

And a literature review highlighting groups that may need clear public health guidance, at the very least (and what, other than the television advert with the faulty positioned mask, has UK done in respect of a public health campaign for COVID to date? Answers on a postcard).www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4293989/

And so we learn the govt's figure for supplying gazillions of items of PPE include disposable gloves counted 'singly, in pairs or in fours' (M Gove) and also individual paper towels.

Govey also says the absence of BAME representation on SAGE is irrelevant because these are experts, and don't we all believe in experts.

Johnson meanwhile, won't say whether he will or won't do PMQs this afternoon. Probably too busy wrestling invisible working-class criminals.

Re Johnson and PMQs. I work in the public sector and any staff member who'd been off sick in his circumstances would be on a phased return to work, ie part-time and/ or on reduced duties initially.
Just saying

I’m waiting for the next headlines saying it’s impossible to find masks, Incl for HCP because people have been buying too many of them to be able to get out of the house.
Or people complaining they can’t go out because they can’t find a mask and can’t sew one (no material, no sewing machine, doesn’t know how to sew etc etc) but are still expected to be out and about to go to work for example.

I agree with JeSuis, the very high risk is people using them for a very long periods of time and/or reusing them from one day to the next, thereby rending them useless.