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Brexit

Westminstenders: No pubs till Christmas?

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/04/2020 18:25

Today the news has moved towards acknowledging covid-19 reality: Nicola Sturgeon has explicitly stated that some social distancing will carry on until the new year in all likelihood.

When Matt Hancock asked if this was true for England too, he refused to say yes but he said that Scotland was working from the same framework as England.

In case anyone does still need this spelling out, this means the outlook for the hospitality and leisure industries is bleak.

There are extremely unlikely to be many enjoying a holiday in the sun any time soon, whether it be in Devon or Spain.

We won't be celebrating birthdays in restaurants nor having a pint in the pub.

Conversations on the doorstep from a couple of metres away is as good as it gets.

That means if you can't adapt you may not survive.

To add into the mix changes to customs to those companies who are operating seems insanity. But that's a political not a scientific decision to be made.

Whether reality in this will kick in, in the next six weeks or so before EU budgetary decisions relating to an extension have to be made remains to be seen.

Until then, there is no news but covid-19.

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BigChocFrenzy · 26/04/2020 12:01

Excellent links, Mship
Very informative, thank you Brew

LouiseCollins28 · 26/04/2020 12:04

Why the current membership of SAGE is not public knowledge I don’t know. From public information it would seem that the membership the group changes depending up the emergency being faced, and Sir Patrick Vallance now a known public figure as its chair.

Is that enough by way of accountability? Maybe it isn’t any the full membership (or more of it) should be public?

From its purpose “The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) provides scientific and technical advice to support government decision makers during emergencies.” ..... I wonder if there are some defence science people involved who’s identifies are protected?

BigChocFrenzy · 26/04/2020 12:08

"Raab says it would not be responsible to explain specific strategies for lifting lockdown "

Merkel (and sometimes the health or finance mimister) keeps us informed about the German govt strategy
We don't get or need daily press conferences from her, but she speaks when she has something to tell us

She has explained that some future decisions will have to be made in the light of changing events, but lays out the current plans and criteria

Surely ordinary people in Germany are no more intelligent or mature than Brits (the leadership is another matter)
to be trusted with such information

QuestionMarkNow · 26/04/2020 12:15

Which is why we need well designed studies with validated tests and strong statistical analysis.

This, posted by @Adesignforstrife is the reason why information that isn’t peer reviewed is just an opinion.
It’s not about being admirable. It’s about knowing what you are basing your decision on.

And it doesn’t mean you can’t take decisions and act. It means you need to go through the decision process with even more care, act whilst checking that you took as facts still are and review what you do even more often. And you never act/talk. as if that ‘knowledge’ is certainty.

BigChocFrenzy · 26/04/2020 12:16

"Why the current membership of SAGE is not public knowledge I don’t know. "

There would be input from specialists in the military:
medical, security & functioning of essential systems & buildings, maintaining civil order, food & meds, experience in disaster relief elsewhere

Also, from the personal attacks that Ferguson receives,
especially from the hard right Social Darwinists who blame him for lockdown,
I expect civilian SAGE members would also vehemently against their identities being made public

The published info is limited to just 3 of the groups, but there will likely be several others:

www.gov.uk/government/groups/scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response

SAGE relies on external science advice and on advice from expert groups.
During COVID-19 this includes the:
New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG))_
Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M))_ (Department for Health and Social Care)
• Independent Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours (SPI-B)

Adesignforstrife · 26/04/2020 12:18

I think that was Mship not me but I agree!

LouiseCollins28 · 26/04/2020 12:24

Thanks BigChoc, I thought that was likely, “Defence Science Technology Labs” I think the group is called these days.

The “Ferguson” you mention, Niall Ferguson is that? Yeah I can imagine that the social media climate does influence things re: identities of SAGE members.

BigChocFrenzy · 26/04/2020 12:41

"I fear the primary motivations on the part of the media in asking questions about lockdown easing is simply to drive the story forward and/or to attempt to create a wedge between the PM and his designated “stand in”.

Louise imo, although there is a lot of legitimate concern about how incompetently and secretively the govt is handling this crisis,

a lot of media questioning is part of the campaign to end lockdown:

  1. As posted, the hard right Social Darwinists like Toby Young, IDS have always hated the idea of the economy and the working population havig to sacrifice to save the old and the younger vulnerable Lockdown represents the antithesis of their "Survival of the Fittest" beliefs

They have a lot of media presence, as most media is owned by billionaire oligarchs, to futher their financial & political interests

  1. Media have pressure from their readers / listeners demanding to know when lockdown will end, so they can return to full pay packets & normal social life, holidays etc
  • BUT this "old normal" WON'T happen, btw, probably not for years
  1. Pressure also from their owners and managers for financial reasons because media - like MN - is being hammered by the fall-off in ad revenues, because so many businesses have cancelled or reduced ads

Many media orgs, local papers etc may go under because of this, despite the great upsurge in readers atm

BigChocFrenzy · 26/04/2020 12:49

" I think it's fine for the serious institutions to publish this information as long as the make it clear that it's not peer reviewed and as long as they are honest about their methods."

In normal times, we should wait for Gold Standard tests and proofs before taking decisions and acting

However, in the case of a crisis that has already cost tens of thousands of lives in the UK,
no govt can just sit on its hands and wait.
They have to go with the most likely scenario and also prepare for the worst case

If they demand certainty before action, then they will likely be burying hundreds of thousands of corpses of those people they were supposed to protect

LouiseCollins28 · 26/04/2020 13:02

Very interesting post BigChoc If there were an argument from the “Social Darwinists” as you describe, it would appear to me as though they have conclusively lost! I don’t see IDS as a Social Darwinist, personally but that’s by the by.

Your point about the “old normal” is a very good one. I’ll give my personal opinion at this point, and I’d go further than a return, “probably not for years”. I actively hope we don’t return to the full excesses of the “old normal” EVER.

If I have another major fear about our exit from this crisis, outwith the concern for the health of members of my family, friends etc, it is that we will (unthinkingly) do just that.

Mistigri · 26/04/2020 13:18

If they demand certainty before action, then they will likely be burying hundreds of thousands of corpses of those people they were supposed to protect

We are going to need honesty about any shortcuts though, and public discussion about the ethical conflicts that is going to involve. (People don't automatically "get" this - I'm amazed at how many people don't realise that it's problematic to vaccinate a test subject with an experimental vaccine then deliberately expose them to the disease!)

This is btw why I am so confident that the U.K. won't get a "dodgy vaccine" - companies are not going to be producing vaccines for profit because they will want to be indemnified by governments against any potential adverse effects caused by shortening the testing process. And individual governments will also probably want the cover of an international vaccine development programme for the same reason.

BigChocFrenzy · 26/04/2020 15:15

Yep, a significant minority seem to fear that millions will be given some dangerously experimental vaccine that could end up harming them

I don't think I'm being too trusting to say I just don't believe that will happen
No company is going to risk destroying itself like that and the scientists would never go along with it anyway
There will be oversight and also an approval process by government agencies

The risks may be slightly higher than the few per million or whatever number of some existing vaccines, but not significantly higher

BigChocFrenzy · 26/04/2020 15:18

However, I don't have information about possibly increased risks to volunteer subjects in the early testing phases, in a shortened development process ?

BigChocFrenzy · 26/04/2020 15:19

Aso, risks of course in developing treatments very quickly

QueenOfThorns · 26/04/2020 15:47

I’m not sure whether this one has been through peer review Grin

Westminstenders: No pubs till Christmas?
yoikes · 26/04/2020 15:50

loiuse
My concern, having children and elderly vulnerable family members, is tory austerity 2.0.

The great tory austerity 1.0 worked very well. I'm sure DC and GO didn't mean to kill disabled and homeless people but that is what has happened.

Then covid-19 struck.

The tories will not stop their destruction of the nhs, workers rights etc and who the fuck is going to pay for all Rishi's economic packages?? Yeah, you guessed it!

Because they will have to be paid for. By people like us. For decades probably.

The tories will claim that a privatised NHS would gave coped better. They will turn us against one another yet again (let's be honest, they are good at it and it works)

I'm very fearful for my kids future.

Like louise I hope we never "go back" to how things were.

I'm certainly making a mental list of which companies, organisations and people who behaved with integrity and fairness.

And I'm making a shit list. Those fuckers will never get my patronage, custom or help ever again.

QueenOfThorns · 26/04/2020 15:51

In terms of developing treatments quickly, I’m not sure that there’s too much risk involved. There’s clearly insufficient time to develop novel compounds to treat Covid-19, so they seem to be trialling existing drugs. Which will obviously have been through trials already and have been investigated for safety.

LouiseCollins28 · 26/04/2020 16:02

Thanks yoikes having read plenty of your Westministenders posts I think it’s likely that we are poles apart politically, but a return to pre-COVID normal holds fears for everyone.

Blimey, “George who?” giving the briefing today?!

DGRossetti · 26/04/2020 16:02

Isn't there some mystery over some viruses that just seem to lose virulence ?

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4361674/

would be a good starting point ...

I ask, because it's hard not to imagine " Boris 2.0" and his dimchums crossing their fingers behind their backs and hoping for a natural lessening in virulence as the "solution", rather than having to actually decide anything. Well I can imagine, anyway.

Oh, and once again, if anyone dares to try and soapytitwank you about "nobody could have foreseen" as a rather pathetic attempt to excuse incompetence with ignorance, in looking in the the above, I discovered this

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK234858/

( Emerging Infections: Microbial Threats to Health in the United States. )

from nineteen ninty fucking two - 28 years ago ... here's some highlights from the preface ....

<strong>Perceiving the Threats:</strong> The emergence of HIV disease has stimulated a high level of interest in the scientific, medical, public health, and policymaking communities. By and large, however, awareness of and concern about the threats to human health posed by other emerging and reemerging microbial diseases remain critically low. A small minority, mainly infectious disease specialists, have for years warned of the potential for serious epidemics and our lack of preparedness for them. In what can only be called a general mood of complacency, these warnings have gone largely unheeded.

<strong>Detecting the Threats:</strong> Surveillance is the primary means by which the incidence of established diseases is monitored and outbreaks of new diseases are detected. The domestic disease surveillance network in the United States is being scaled back as a result of fiscal problems in many states, raising concerns about its ability to perform a vital public health function. Equally worrisome, the existing international surveillance networks are focused on little more than a handful of well-defined diseases, and U.S. involvement in this worldwide effort is diminishing. Epidemiological knowledge of most globally important diseases is incomplete at best; for many there is very little information.

<strong>Understanding the Threats:</strong> Despite progress in basic and applied infectious disease research, gaps remain in our knowledge about most bacteria, viruses, protozoans, helminths, and fungi. These scientific ''blind spots" have slowed or prevented efforts to understand the variety of factors responsible for disease emergence and reemergence. The diversion of funds for emergencies or, in some cases, inconsistent levels of funding have made it especially difficult to address the full range of research opportunities and needs.

<strong>Responding to the Threats:</strong> Once emerging microbial threats are detected, responses to them are often feeble. Diseases that appear not to threaten the United States directly rarely elicit the political support necessary to maintain control efforts. U.S. support for surveillance, control, and research activities in other countries is extremely limited. Here, as in other nations, failure to sustain domestic efforts to control infectious diseases is an equally serious problem. Ill-informed decision making can prevent accurate assessments of the actual danger posed by microbial threats to health, and it can slow or even halt steps to address an emerging disease problem. Ironically, these same forces can produce an overresponse to less serious situations. Finally, profit and liability concerns have undercut the market incentives for manufacturers of vaccines, drugs, and pesticides to develop and distribute needed supplies to the most impoverished populations both in the United States and in other countries.
LouiseCollins28 · 26/04/2020 16:09

More positive trend on the hospital admissions graph by area today but I wonder if they have changed the scale?

Mistigri · 26/04/2020 16:18

In terms of developing treatments quickly, I’m not sure that there’s too much risk involved. There’s clearly insufficient time to develop novel compounds to treat Covid-19, so they seem to be trialling existing drugs.

Just because a drug is approved for a different indication doesn't mean it isn't potentially dangerous.

DGRossetti · 26/04/2020 16:36

In terms of developing treatments quickly, I’m not sure that there’s too much risk involved. There’s clearly insufficient time to develop novel compounds to treat Covid-19, so they seem to be trialling existing drugs.

One of the reason my DB gravitated towards the genetics of supercomputing when he did his PhD was because pharmaceutical companies are basically running out of drugs. It's not quite that all the drugs to be discovered have been, but certainly all the low-hanging fruit (i.e. the really profitable ones ...) have been plucked.

So there's a drive now to go back over all the old drugs, and review them - in particular the side effects - to see if they are potential treatments for other conditions.

DW is a beneficiary of one such drug - an antiviral called Amantadine turned out to have a positive effect on the fatigue that comes with MS

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amantadine#Off-label_uses

There's also a whole area of research into combining drugs ... again from the previously noted contraindications.

DBs particular interest is how different genomes respond to different drugs ... as that could lead to much more effective treatments as people are given the right medication for their particular genetic makeup (also at the right time of day, which is another area of study ....)

Songsofexperience · 26/04/2020 16:40

Like louise I hope we never "go back" to how things were.

As someone who is deeply miserable with the current state of things (not least because my industry is utterly screwed if this goes on), i'd like to know which part of the old normal you don't want to see make a return?
I'll be brutally honest: i miss going out to bars, theatres, concerts, travelling, real life human interactions, meeting new people, exploring other places & cultures... My livelihood is threatened and mentally I'm struggling every single day with the concept that my life is possibly over. Call me entitled. I know I had a great lifestyle even though I was on the verge of burning out when the virus struck and floored me for 7 weeks (I'm officially on sick leave for another 3). I can't help feeling that I will never be happy in that new distanced, cold, boring world.
So it would be great to know which parts of the old should be dead and buried in your opinion... I'm genuinely not sure what people mean when they say that.

yoikes · 26/04/2020 16:48

Generally speaking?

I won't miss disaster capitalism, the greed is good mentality. I'll be buying more locally and less from big multinationals.
I'll be actively avoiding the companies owned by the likes of mike Ashley, tim wetherspoon, James dyson etc

I won't take any of your examples for granted in future...travel, meeting up with friends...

Does that answer your question?

yoikes · 26/04/2020 16:51

...and sorry you've been so ill.

The pandemic has meant I'm busier than ever, sadly. Every time I leave the house I risk myself and bringing it back to my family.

This isnt easy for anyone.

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