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Brexit

Westministenders: Peak something

990 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 16/04/2020 15:05

Westministenders: Peak something

The story so far

COVID has changed the world for the next few years, like a slowly exploding nuke:

  • killed well over 100,000 people
  • made many people afraid to leave their home
  • caused a Global Depression

Countries locked down because they needed the extra time to

Raise the Line while Flattening the Curve:

  1. Flatten the curve of the numbers needing healthcare to a level the system can manage

  2. Raise the capacity of their health services and public health systems - their testing and tracking process

Also, scientists desperately needed time to find out more about COVID:
how to avoid it, how to treat it

What happens next ?

Research teams around the world are working to produce a vaccine,
will become hopefully available within the next couple of years

In the meantime, treatment procedures are being developed to better treat COVID sufferers.

Also in the meantime, countries will need to gradually exit lockdown to rescue their economies from complete catastrophe.

Timing & measures for each country will be dependent on:

Death rate after peak,
health service capacity,
testing & tracing capacity etc

....and also what their govt and public deem an "acceptable" level of extra deaths & serious illness.

Possibly some countries will need to cycle in and out of lockdown,
whereas others will be able to accept the death toll with lesser social distancing measures.

The first few countries are already relaxing lockdown,
so the UK will watch, wait and hopefully learn what works and what doesn't

..... then copy these the correct way round

Westministenders: Peak something
OP posts:
Thread gallery
43
ListeningQuietly · 19/04/2020 14:57

Darwin was right ;-)

Westministenders: Peak something
DGRossetti · 19/04/2020 15:01

Halfway through part 5 of the Ken Burns Vietnam documentary.

What jumps out is the naked terror Americans have been indoctrinated with over communism. (Shame they don't feel so horrified by "racism" ...). Unless I am suffering from living on the inside, I can't think of anything that is equivalent for the English or British.

Possibly Catholicism in the post reformation centuries, but these days ?

The moment anyone in the US is accused of being a "communist" it's a given than over 50% of the people will immediately disregard them ...

DGRossetti · 19/04/2020 15:20

.

Westministenders: Peak something
Mistigri · 19/04/2020 15:35

but I still think that a fully functioning vaccine will arrive too late to make a real difference

If that's true then we are heading for disaster.

If you estimate that between 5 and 10% of the population will be immune or dead by the end of the first wave, and 60% of us need to be immune for herd immunity to be possible, then saying the "vaccine will be too late" implies that you think we are going to have second and third waves at least twice as high as the first over the next 18 months.

Mistigri · 19/04/2020 15:37

And that's without accounting for the fact that immunity may only last a year or so!

dontcallmelen · 19/04/2020 15:40

Piggy yy your recent post, I was wondering this as well I have dilated cardiomyopathy & have stealing blood syndrome, I’m not in the shielded list so can’t get online food shopping, as supermarkets have rightly prioritised the shielded but the vulnerable have to physically go & get shopping, I’m lucky my Dh does the shopping but it’s still a risk being out & exposed then possibly bringing it home, I would dearly love to have more information as to my risk factor.

Piggywaspushed · 19/04/2020 15:44

Didn't meant to worry you unduly.

Same for my DH, though with mitral valve something or other. And a teacher. So the ST want to herd him back tout de suite.

MockersxxxxxxxSocialDistancing · 19/04/2020 16:01

The Ken Burns Vietnam Documentary like every other US source on the American War in that country misses the bleeding obvious point that the war was fundamentally, overwhelmingly a Vietnamese experience. Think of that little girl running down the road and imagine a whole country that went through a similar experience.

That war also gave us the 'Follies,' the Pentagon Press Conferences where they gave out the daily and increasingly implausible body count.

Could never happen here.

....Ooooh look, it's the Boy Gavin. They really are scraping the barrel scrapings.

mrslaughan · 19/04/2020 16:09

I don't know where I read it.... but somewhere in all the stuff I read about Covid-19 there was a reference to an observation? Link? Between people who have had the TB (BCG) vaccine and having much milder cases. So countries that have a country wide vaccination policy - are less affected.
Has anybody else seen that? Got a comment on that?

The observation that asthmatics are less vulnerable is interesting- as I think I have had it - a lot of the symptoms and so sick, but being asthmatic and my asthma flaring no more than I would expect with a flu virus - I didn't think it could be.....

MockersxxxxxxxSocialDistancing · 19/04/2020 16:16

The 13th Amendment in its own terms appears to confirm that prison labour does constitute slavery.

The League of Nations and later UN Anti-Slavery Convention of 1926 defines Slavery as the ownership of another human being. This 1926 Convention informs Article 4 of the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights which excludes prison labour for lawfuly convicted offenders.

'Modern Slavery' as recognised in international law extends the definition of slavery to include forced labour, with or without pay, indentured servitude and other forms of coercive labour and trafficking.

Forced Labour without pay, as exists in US Prisons, would be illegal under the European Convention on Human Rights.

MockersxxxxxxxSocialDistancing · 19/04/2020 16:17

...rong fred.

DGRossetti · 19/04/2020 16:24

Forced Labour without pay, as exists in US Prisons, would be illegal under the European Convention on Human Rights.

So another thing the US would have to guarantee if it still wants Assange ...

MockersxxxxxxxSocialDistancing · 19/04/2020 16:31

The terms of the extradition treaty provide for the setting aside of all such non-compliance, including any resort to the death penalty even if commuted.

What he wouldn't get is bail.

Shame.

DGRossetti · 19/04/2020 16:33

The terms of the extradition treaty provide for the setting aside of all such non-compliance, including any resort to the death penalty even if commuted.

But the extradition treaty (for now) can't trump the HRA.

MockersxxxxxxxSocialDistancing · 19/04/2020 16:38

The USA has proved to be a reliable extradition partner and has yet to accidentally execute any European extraditees to date, and so are regarded as trustworthy.

What hasn't been tested in court is the jurisdiction angle, whereby the US seeks to get its hands on people whose alleged offences were committed outside the US by persons who never set foot in the place. Such cases have always been short-circuited by the Home Secretary of the day blocking the extradition on grounds of credible risk of suicide.

....meanwhile, at 10DS, Nurse Rached is telling us all off for not knowing enough about the different sorts of PPE.

DGRossetti · 19/04/2020 16:39

I don't know where I read it.... but somewhere in all the stuff I read about Covid-19 there was a reference to an observation? Link? Between people who have had the TB (BCG) vaccine and having much milder cases. So countries that have a country wide vaccination policy - are less affected.

Sadly, the Great British Publics understanding of anything more complex than the Bake Off scoring system tends to invite an immediate bunfight, and vaccination policies are no exception. Especially as it's an area that tries to do evidence based science - which again isn't really how We Do Things In Britain.

I managed to swerve my BCG when everyone else had it by dint of receiving desensitisation injections. The nurse giving the test wanted it cleared with my GP (it was fine). Of course that weeks delay meant I was consigned to the archives ....

DGRossetti · 19/04/2020 16:45

What hasn't been tested in court is the jurisdiction angle, whereby the US seeks to get its hands on people whose alleged offences were committed outside the US by persons who never set foot in the place.

It doesn't need to be tested ... US jurisdiction is universal (not just worldwide).

DGRossetti · 19/04/2020 16:54

yorkshirebylines.co.uk
The Great Repeal mystery - Yorkshire Bylines
Anthony Robinson
8-10 minutes

Brexit was billed as taking back control of our laws but the government has still not published a list of EU laws they want to repeal

After the transition period Boris Johnson will be free to tinker as much as he likes with a whole new section of the British constitution, called retained EU law. But which laws are actually destined for the axe?

You would think after years of shouting about ‘taking back control’ of our laws and ‘regaining sovereignty’ the government would have published a list of all the EU regulations and Directives that it has its eye on. But no, we have no idea.

I ask the question since it’s an article of faith among Brexiters that somehow we have had masses of EU regulations and directives foisted upon us in a secret German plot to dominate and control Britain. The transparently democratic process known as the Ordinary Legislative Procedure, the method by which most EU laws are adopted, is always conveniently ignored.

Our local MP and typical Brexiter, Nigel Adams, for example, summed it up on his website in June 2016: “The EU is fast becoming a European State, where Britain has to obey directives and regulations that British people have never voted for and never would. The House of Commons Library has estimated that over 60 per cent of our laws start in Brussels – nearly all decided by the 28 unelected EU Commissioners.”

For some inexplicable reason the article has now disappeared, but you can still find it on a web archive HERE. Perhaps our rather parochial representative was embarrassed by it? Someone at the Foreign Office, where he is now a junior minister, has probably explained to him how the EU actually works.

“The EU is fast becoming a European State, where Britain has to obey directives and regulations that British people have never voted for and never would. The House of Commons Library has estimated that over 60% of our laws start in Brussels – nearly all decided by the 28 unelected EU Commissioners.”
Nigel Adams, SelbyandAinsty.com 6 June 2016

Fintan O’Toole, the brilliant Irish writer and columnist, has rightly described this sort of thinking as ‘imaginary oppression’. Brexiters believe it implicitly but it’s hard to liberate oneself from something that doesn’t actually exist. The government must begin to show that taking back control actually means something and that our newfound ‘freedoms’ are not also imaginary. This will become a real problem shortly.

I know the issue also bothers Ken Clarke, the former MP for Rushcliffe and Father of The House. He frequently asked which EU laws British ministers voted against in the European Council but is yet to receive a reasonable answer?

During a BBC interview with Clarke and Rees-Mogg in October 2016 we learned what the Right Honourable member for the 18th century would like repealed. For him it’s the three-crop rule, the ban on neonicotinoids and the Working Time Directive (WTD). Plus, he wanted incandescent light bulbs back on the shelves.

The following year, his Brexiter colleague and DEFRA Secretary at the time, Michael Gove, disappointed Rees-Mogg because he actually extended the neonicotinoids ban, calling for “further restrictions on their use”. Just about every major country in the world has banned filament lamps so its hardly likely we will be having our irises seared and our homes heated by ultra bright 200 watt bulbs in the future. Unless we build a factory and look for export opportunities that is.

And anyone can voluntarily opt out of the WTD’s 48-hour week limit so it’s not particularly onerous is it? As for the three-crop rule, most people have never even heard of it!

Later, in November 2017, in the House of Commons the famously Europhile Ken Clarke tried again, this time with Steve Baker. Clarke asked the junior DEXEU minister if he could name a significant European law or regulation that was opposed by the British government at the time, which the government were now proposing to repeal?

The only one Baker could think of was the ‘ports regulations’. Never heard of them? Join the club. This Directive didn’t even come into force until April 2019 and has hardly filled the newspapers with massed opposition voices since then.

The directive establishes a framework for the provision of port services in Europe, many of which are state owned with the potential to receive illegal subsidies. It provides for common rules on financial transparency and creates a level playing field among port operators. Will anyone die in a ditch to scrap it? Probably not.

Remember, these are leading lights of Brexit and this is the best they can come up with.

The government launched a red tape challenge in 2011, although the website is now closed having achieved little of note, in fact nothing as far as I know. In February 2020, before he resigned, Sajid Javid issued yet another red tape challenge to ‘liberate business’ from ‘overbearing bureaucracy’. It’s as if we keep going around and around the same circuit looking for non-existent rules to scrap in the certain knowledge something must need repealing, but failing to identify what it is.

During the referendum, Vote Leave produced a list of 72 EU measures, out of several thousand passed between 1996 and 2015, which they claimed the UK government had opposed. Brexiters were apparently enraged by the outcome of the democratic processes in the European parliament and Council of Ministers. It’s the kind of anger that a dictator or a medieval monarch might feel if anyone was foolish enough to suggest a vote on anything.

So, what were these 72 measures about? They must surely be prime candidates. Jim Grace in a long Twitter thread in January 2019 went through the entire list and discovered that UK ministers had opposed things like food labels having to indicate if Aspartame (linked to cancer, headaches and seizures) was present – this was Directive 96/21/EC.

Another – 96/22/EC – banned the use of growth promoters with hormonal, thyrostatic or beta-agonist effects, to avoid carcinogenic residues in meat. Regulation 261/2004 was the one that forced airlines to offer compensation for delayed or cancelled flights. Amazingly, UK ministers actually voted against both of these.

This is the sort of thing the EU was ‘forcing’ on us. We supported everything else or abstained.

Many of the 72 measures, those concerning EU budgets or agencies, simply don’t apply to us anymore and it’s hard to see even this government repealing rules that prevent wine makers adding tartaric acid to wine or safety advisers dealing with dangerous goods on public roads not being properly trained (yes, we opposed both of those!). In other words the actual number of ‘measures’ that we voted against and later found their way into British law, which we might now want to repeal, is vanishingly small and none of them are significant.

The National Audit Office recently put the direct cost of Brexit preparations so far at £4.4 billion for the public sector alone, not including costs for private companies. In January, Bloomberg Economics calculated the UK economy has already shrunk by £130 billion, with a further £70 billion reduction expected by the end of this year.

This seems rather a lot to pay for Rees-Mogg’s trivial wish list or to have aspartame added to food without it being on the label.

The government is keen to regain control over our laws but what they plan to do with it is not clear. How much are we going to diverge from EU law? If what Brexiters have said is anything to go by, in the end we may not move very far at all. Will the average leave voter understand? I’m not convinced. Many expect a massive rolling back of EU laws.

Although all this is academic at the moment, it may become a battleground in future. What is the point of taking back control in order to continue on the same course or worse, to shadow the EU? If divergence is the point of Brexit, Johnson needs some big-ticket items, what will they be?

Laws must go, but which ones? We will soon find out.

MockersxxxxxxxSocialDistancing · 19/04/2020 17:26

So Jenrick's PPE wasn't on a ship in the channel but, and he did his best not to make this (very) clear, it is stuck in a shed at an un-named Turkish airport, and now, and only now, are we thinking about sending the RAF, Dambusters Theme on full blast, in to get it.

I do hope Her Majesty's Press could look into this.

TatianaBis · 19/04/2020 17:30

But researchers are using established general approaches to creating vaccines.

Some are, and some are using new technology as I have said eg Novovac, Moderna and CureVac.

You don't create a new flu vaccine each year, you just update it to provide protection for different strains. This vaccine is a more complicated than that (because there is no existing human corona vaccine) but they're not starting from scratch.

I hardly need to point out this is not a new flu strain you where you can tweak an existing vaccine. This is a new disease and scientists are having to learn about the virus and the body’s response to it.

No one is saying this will be easy, or that there is any guarantee of a vaccine in the next 12-18 months, but scaremongering about the current phase 1 trials is political not scientific.

Seriously? I’m just trying to be realistic about the prospect of a vaccine being rolled out on a timeframe that will make a difference. I’m sure an effective one will be found eventually. If covid outbreaks were to persist long term then vaccines would make a big difference.

DGRossetti · 19/04/2020 17:33

I wonder if there is anything to be gained from looking back into history over the ways we've previously dealt with contagious diseases we couldn't cure ? Leprosy springs to mind.

If nothing else, it would avoid putting all the eggs into the vaccine basket.

TatianaBis · 19/04/2020 17:36

Astonished by the anti-vax stuff on here tbh.

You want to talk about how doctors are giving patients unproven treatments for coronavirus which are known to carry a high risk of serious adverse events?

On what planet is realistic evaluation of the the scientific options anti-vaxx?

I had all my vaccs so have my kids, DH and my dad are doctors. I’m not remotely anti vaxx I’m anti unicorns.

And yes we can discuss the dearth of medical options for covid - the problems with chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine, for example. But squid would be much better qualified to give views on that than I am.

HoneysuckIejasmine · 19/04/2020 17:39

We're very lucky and have had problem getting online slots. Perhaps not always my supermarket of choice but when I logged on this morning I got straight on and could pick every from every slot for the day, albeit that day was early May. 7.30am so not a ridiculous time either.

HoneysuckIejasmine · 19/04/2020 17:42

Btw. Hydroxychloroquine. I, and many other people who suffer from autoimmune disorders, take it easy single day and have done for over a decade. The biggest risk factor for it is sight damage. I must admit to rolling my eyes a little at the constant refrain of how dangerous it is - sometimes it sounds like people are talking about crack or meth, so dire are their warnings.

I'd also appreciate if Trump shut up about it though because it's causing supply issues.

Mistigri · 19/04/2020 17:42

As a general comment not aimed at any specific post it's pretty anti-vax to suggest that corners are deliberately being cut in such a way as to create a dodgy vaccine.

Creating vaccines is difficult but few illnesses have as many resources thrown at them as this one. The fact that there are at least a dozen candidate vaccines already is promising although it's much to early to claim victory.