Westministenders: Peak something

[BigChocFrenzy]

Westministenders: Peak something

The story so far

COVID has changed the world for the next few years, like a slowly exploding nuke:

• killed well over 100,000 people
• made many people afraid to leave their home
• caused a Global Depression

Countries locked down because they needed the extra time to

Raise the Line while Flattening the Curve:

1. Flatten the curve of the numbers needing healthcare to a level the system can manage

2. Raise the capacity of their health services and public health systems - their testing and tracking process

Also, scientists desperately needed time to find out more about COVID:
how to avoid it, how to treat it

What happens next ?

Research teams around the world are working to produce a vaccine,
will become hopefully available within the next couple of years

In the meantime, treatment procedures are being developed to better treat COVID sufferers.

Also in the meantime, countries will need to gradually exit lockdown to rescue their economies from complete catastrophe.

Timing & measures for each country will be dependent on:

Death rate after peak,
health service capacity,
testing & tracing capacity etc

....and also what their govt and public deem an "acceptable" level of extra deaths & serious illness.

Possibly some countries will need to cycle in and out of lockdown,
whereas others will be able to accept the death toll with lesser social distancing measures.

The first few countries are already relaxing lockdown,
so the UK will watch, wait and hopefully learn what works and what doesn't

..... then copy these the correct way round

Anti-vaxxers please start your own threads

"People who have the luxury of working from home for their full income won't see their health jeopardised. Reopening the economy is no skin off their noses.
It's the desperate people who live from paycheque to paycheque who will pay for the reopening of the economy."

Exactly
The better off who can WFH are ordering out the cannon fodder to storm the machine guns

Anti-vaxxers please start your own threads

Yes, this. I’d happily be a guinea pig to test this vaccine, although I suspect they’d not consider me healthy enough. I read the story yesterday about them getting a head start on producing vaccine in the hope that it works and I also thought that makes perfect sense.

Now the government has got increased testing capacity, but doesn’t seem to be using it (lack of demand my arse). Could it be that they don’t actually have a plan? Useless muppets.

"We will make decisions based on facts, science, and recommendations from experts in health care, business, labor, and education,"

Yes, the Trumpers must hate them for that

But when it comes to stupidity, Trumpers compete with those Democrat voters who decided they'd rather let him in than vote for the mediocre Clinton

• and it looks like some may refuse to vote for the mediocre Biden too

Ordinary politics finally died in 2016:
Trump is a psychopathic narcissistic hoodlum who was unfortunately born with enough wealth to take over the empty shell of the GOP

• and that's a whole different tragedy, that the party of Eisenhower sank so low

He is a continuing danger to his own country and the world
The only thing worse than the far right in power is a far right lunatic in power

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/coronavirus-brexit-a-key-issue-says-us-special-envoy-1.4231821

The US special envoy for Northern Ireland, Mick Mulvaney, has said he intends to travel to Northern Ireland as soon as the coronavirus restrictions are lifted,
as he prepares to assume his post.

Mr Mulvaney said a key focus for him in the coming weeks is how the Covid-19 crisis will impact on Brexit.

Steven Swinford @steven_swinford
Inside No 10 Dominic Cummings is back and ‘making himself felt’

He was said to be behind hardening message on ruling out transition extension

In No 10 there’s an increasing conviction we are heading for no-deal

'The two sides are a million miles away from each other'

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
NEW: Ministers and government scientists are drawing up what they hope will be a “three stage” approach to easing lockdown restrictions in phases between May and July

No exact plan to relax lockdown has been finalised, as it's too early to know if the transmission rate is coming down to a manageable level, and if we have enough test and contact tracing capacity

But the govt is working on this three stage strategy:

Stage one — in a "best case scenario" — begins with schools and some businesses reopening in early to mid-May

— non-essential retail shops
— manufacturing and construction
— some of the strictest social distancing measures could be relaxed if data allows

Commuters may be told to wear masks on public transport

But there are concerns this is another area the UK has been slow to get on top of

Department for Health admit to BuzzFeed News there has been zero procurement of masks for the wider public yet

Stage two: more businesses reopening and further social distancing measures lifted

— Ministers hope this can happen end-May/early June
— most people returning to work
— some small gatherings permitted
— But pubs and restaurants reopen later in the summer

SAGE scientists are also looking at lifting restrictions by age

People under a certain age threshold could be able to go back to their offices sooner, organise social gatherings or go to the pub, but those above the limit cannot

Ministers and aides are also increasingly optimistic about the efficacy of antiviral drugs to treat coronavirus

They hope that by the summer drugs such as remdesivir could be used to give patients a better chance of recovery and reduce death rates

Stage three is the final exit strategy

^— SAGE has told ministers there are only two routes out: a vaccine or herd immunity
— some No10 aides dislike the phrase "exit strategy" because the truth is we will not have exited for a long time^

Until a vaccine or herd immunity are achieved, elderly and vulnerable people will have to be shielded with strict ongoing restrictions

Insiders worried the public hasn't grasped this yet

One minister described it as: "You can’t see granny for 18 months"

How and when the UK can move through the three stages depends on various factors

— most important is the currently limited capacity to test and contact trace
— some in Whitehall expect Hancock to miss his 100,000 tests per day target by “a week or two

www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-lockdown-three-stage-exit-plan
Revealed: The UK’s “Three Stage” Exit Strategy To Ease The Coronavirus Lockdown
A "best case scenario" would see some non-essential retail shops and industries reopen in early to mid-May, further social distancing measures relaxed over the summer, but the elderly and vulnerable facing strict "shielding" restrictions lasting until a vaccine is found.

some in Whitehall expect Hancock to miss his 100,000 tests per day target by “a week or two or three or four

....but it will be the public's/care sector workers'/NHS workers' fault for "not putting themselves forward for testing"

Which is one reason why I find anti-vaxxers a bit dim.

Which wasn't the poster on this thread. Some one who is prepared to have some vaccines, is not by definition an anti-vaxxer.

It's sad to see that the unelected Cummings is back at the helm. The only comfort I take from this is something I read in the Guardian about one party states, and when the people eventually tire of them, they have no one else to blame. It's getting to that stage now, with the Johnson apologists stock arguments that Corbyn would have been worse, looking a bit thin.

It's the desperate people who live from paycheque to paycheque who will pay for the reopening of the economy.

But it's their kids who will pay the price longer term for not reopening it.

Which wasn't the poster on this thread. Some one who is prepared to have some vaccines, is not by definition an anti-vaxxer.

Quite. Plenty of medics and scientists are cautious about a vaccine rushed out in 6 months, rather than subject to 10 years of testing.

Whether it will be effective and whether it will be safe are valid questions quite distinct from anti-vaccism.

Another issue is whether it will be logistically possible to vaccinate sufficient people in a time frame that will make a difference to the current outbreak.

Shutting down debate around a key aspect of the covid jigsaw does no-one any favours.

But it's their kids who will pay the price longer term for not reopening it.
Yup

Telling someone they are dim isn’t going to help DGR

Well you can indulge them all you like. I won't. Dim is as dim does.

no more than telling brexiters they are dim.

But I have never said people who wanted to leave the EU were dim. Some did have some cogent, carefully reasoned and hard thought out arguments. Unfortunately they were all drowned out by the dim ones who in 3 fucking years never did more than post slogans.

Once again it’s not about being anti vaccine. It’s about evidence based medicine.

I really don't know what that means, considering I could not have done more to state my total faith in evidence based medicine. Did you take my comment to be somehow anti-vax ?

If we stopped everything that had more risk than vaccination, then we'd be relying on prayer / wishful thinking to combat disease or injury

But then some people are ....

Fascinating article about the upcoming (or not) presidential elections. Shame the BBC can't deliver this kind of reasoned analysis for UK news. (Note to self: maybe user UK sources for US news and US sources for UK news ...)

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52326166

While I knew it would effectively take a constitutional change to change the elections, my eye was caught by :

Hasen also suggests another more extraordinary, albeit unlikely, scenario. Legislatures, citing concerns about the virus, could take back the power to determine which candidate wins their state in the general election. There is no constitutional obligation that a state support the presidential candidate who wins a plurality of its vote - or that the state hold a vote for president at all.

I have been using lockdown to catch up on the excellent Ken Burns documentary about Vietnam. I wonder if my time would be better spent rewatching his (also excellent) ground breaking series from 30 years ago about the US civil war

*Quite. Plenty of medics and scientists are cautious about a vaccine rushed out in 6 months, rather than subject to 10 years of testing.

Whether it will be effective and whether it will be safe are valid questions quite distinct from anti-vaccism.

Another issue is whether it will be logistically possible to vaccinate sufficient people in a time frame that will make a difference to the current outbreak.*

In western countries with developed healthcare system it should be possible to roll out vaccination quite quickly, we did it for swine flu (I remember attending a vaccination centre where all four of us had it done). The question is how quickly production can be ramped up.

Entirely agree with about safety. But on the other hand, if the goal is public health rather than the health of individuals, then rolling it out as early as possible makes sense even if some harm is done.

But of course that will require informed consent from individuals.

I'd note that any vaccine even one subject to inadequate testing will probably be more helpful and less harmful than chlorohydroquine.

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-no-evidence-that-covid-19-survivors-have-immunity-who-warns-11975011

Remember that season of House of Cards where they manufacture a reason to suspend the election?

Remember that season of House of Cards where they manufacture a reason to suspend the election?

probably much more realistic was the Veep season where the presidential election was tied (yes, it can happen ?!?!?!?!) and they had to go down the pecking list to get a casting vote.

Americans don't like to be told (and some won't believe) but the same way we don't get to vote for our Prime Minister, they don't get to vote for their president. This may be one of the times that matters big time.

yorkshirebylines.co.uk/britains-productivity-gap-will-robots-hold-us-back-post-brexit/

In terms of installations of industrial robots, Britain’s record is woeful compared to every other industrialised economy.

In 2012, a group of Tory MPs including Priti Patel, Dominic Raab, Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng co-authored a book: Britannia Unchained, in which British workers were described as “among the worst idlers in the world”. Three of the MPs are now senior members of the cabinet.

(contd)

Listening, that story is very badly headlined. The story is about whether the sort of quick serological tests bought by the U.K. govt work, NOT whether people have immunity or not.

The evidence so far using lab tests (harder to scale up) suggests that most but not all people acquire immunity. We don't know how long it lasts (immunity to the human corona viruses which cause colds tends to fade after a year).

So there are challenges to vaccination but the virologists i follow on twitter seem optimistic that it's possible to create a vaccine. There are animal coronavirus vaccines in use and work on a SARS vaccine was looking promising but ultimately the SARS virus disappeared so testing was abandoned.

The evidence so far using lab tests (harder to scale up) suggests that most but not all people acquire immunity. We don't know how long it lasts (immunity to the human corona viruses which cause colds tends to fade after a year).

Personally I'd think a much more important question is once a person has gained immunity - even if it lessens at a rate to require annual vaccinations - would a subsequent infection carry the same dangers that the initial one did ? In fact I'd peg that as one of the pressing questions of the day.

I'm sure that between us, the posters on this thread could come up with a series of bullet point key questions that we'd expect answers to in one form or another to aid in planning and future strategy.

I am even more sure that such a list doesn't exist in any shape or form - and isn't going to for a long while - in the UK government.

but ultimately the SARS virus disappeared so testing was abandoned.
indeed
As will Covid
and people will forget
because they do

In 2012, a group of Tory MPs including Priti Patel, Dominic Raab, Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng co-authored a book: Britannia Unchained, in which British workers were described as “among the worst idlers in the world”.

Yes, that'll be it. Nothing to do with the lack of investment because our dividends are so high, nor the lack of qualified management, poor national infrastructure and laws that make German-style industrial collaboration impossible.

Also never mind if Nissan, Toyota, Airbus etc can invest in this country and get better productivity here than any of their other facilities.

Skiving workers, that'll be it.