Will we extend the transition period in light of Covid 19?

[DannyNedelko]

In theory, it is now set in law that the transition period cannot be extended. We've been told that if no progress is made by June, we will prepare for no trade deal and tariffs.

In practice, it's unlikely that either the UK or EU will be focusing on this, whilst this corona virus is doing the rounds. Key negotiators may have to self isolate or be unable to travel to trade talks.

Many businesses are likely to struggle due to Covid 19, and won't be in a great place to withstand any issues that arise from properly leaving the EU.

Before the Covid 19 crisis, Boris was committed to leaving at the year, whatever the cost. What will happen?

It is an open secret that a request for an extension to the extension of the extension is now all but inevitable.

Part of me wants the EU to tell UK to piss off: Bed. Made. Now lie on it. And lie and lie and lie....

Anything can be blamed on coronavirus now. If you set a law you can change it too.

Negotiations are still going ahead on the original timetable but the next round will be video conference rather than face to face. No charge for the time being....

It'll be extended. As we've seen this week, a day is a long time in politics this week.

I can't imagine arranging trade deals with Britain is a priority for other countries right now, correct me if I'm wrong. I know Johnson and Gove are saying there won't be an extension but I don't see how they have a choice.

The transition period should be extended indefinitely.

If there is one thing we should have learned by now it is that viruses and other bugs know no boundaries and we are better together, pooling our knowledge and working for the common good.

The EU has published its trade offer and started sending it round for ratification.
They are not going to blink.
So either
(a) Boris signs the EU deal
(b) Boris dies in a ditch and requests a huge Covid extension
(c) No Deal at the end of December
I suspect A under cover of Covid

There will be no extension. We leave at the end of December. The virus will not change that.
As we will not budge on the EU's laughable non-trade demands, there will be no deal and we will leave on WTO terms. This will allow us to negotiate properly with the EU as a third country rather than as a semi-prisoner in 'transition'.
And whatever might be the 'common good' for EU members is of no interest to most of us, who are more concerned about the good of the UK.

Larry
What are the WTO rules for services?

I think it has to be extended. Hopefully the EU will ask the UK.

However, I did see the EU has come up with a template agreement for a trade deal so maybe something can be agreed even on a temporary basis with a view to reviewing it after two years or something. It can't be that difficult to come up with a transition extension that isn't.

I'm sure we will. People's willingness to stomach a game of chicken over No Deal will be seriously diminished.

Transition is going to be extended for at least 2 years. U.K. is in a very very bad situation right now.

Be honest, this is what you told us Brexit would be, only we won't have lock down.
So why not just push it all through now, and let everything recover together.
The EU is in trouble, it is not helping Europe and Italy and Spain can't afford the bills that will come from the EU, ones we won't be paying as we left by

Brexit right now is pure ideology. We don't need any more barriers to trade in such a fraught context. Park it and reopen the question once the world and the economy has recovered.

No reason why negotiations can't continue. The EU is still actively trying to enrol new members, that isn't being stopped.

Also the EU is going to be looking for more billions after this. If we are in the EU longer we will be paying more.

And businesses have had years of waiting to leave. Have even more now?

Going ahead with no deal brexit will massively compound the Corona crisis. Imagine adding supply chain issues, tariffs, reducing/stopping knowledge sharing and cooperation with EU on medical research etc etc.

Pre Corona it was widely acknowledged that the alleged benefits of brexit would take at least 50 years to become apparent. The economic recession/depression caused by Corona plus Brexit probably means it will take 75+ years to see any benefits from Brexit.

Also do we really want to build closer trading relations with China after this? I'd rather boycott China altogether rather than become closer.

Any brexiteer who still wants Brexit to go ahead during this huge crisis is even more stupid, ignorant, ill informed than I previously thought. But no surprise there.

We will know when brexiters are getting worried about a possible transition extension when randoms pop up on here to tell us that the U.K. holds all the cards.

True. And the fact the government are categorically saying they will not seek an extension means that it's 99% certain that they will.

I’m not for Brexit, but I’m not sure another extension will be requested.

After 3.5 years both parties know broadly what type of FTA they can come away with and what the barriers will be. Another extension won’t change that.

There’s an argument that as supply chains have a lower level of demand the implementation of customs checks may be less of a burden through the short straits

Add into this that the EU and UK will be in deep recessions and therefore additional burdens of customs processes etc will be a necessity to retain open access to each other’s markets rather than a reason not to trade.

Finally, the EU will be looking for HUGE contributions and if we stay the UK will find itself paying for EU27 countries recovery rather then NHS investment - just HOW could the Tories spin that?

Johnson is starting to take a beating over the 5 missed COBRA meetings. It would be a tactical disaster to feed the press another failure with Brexit delays.

And that’s why IMHO I don’t think we’ll ask for any extension. Teresa May’s Deal of last year never looked so good

What FTA?

Not even the most insane brexiter believes that there will be a FTA this year.

It would be insane not to. So they probably won't.

@Mistigri - respectfully disagree. Think the UK and EU could agree a limited, very limited FTA perhaps covering import duties and quotas. We’re never going to land a FTA that includes regulatory alignment etc

Trying to go ahead with Brexit during a worldwide pandemic, which will be nowhere near to ending in Jan 2021, when we will still need to import all sorts of medicines and equipment from the EU, which we are able to do now without the additional costs of tariffs and the delays of customs or red tape, would be a belt and braces suicide.

The Brexiteers will no doubt still insist they knew what they voted for and that complete economic meltdown is worth it to take back control blah blah blah.

When you consider the mess that the USA is getting into with Trump, it seems utter madness that our Government chooses to throw away agreements with our neighbours, for the vague hope of deals with the US. Alternatively, with an over reliance on China!

Think the UK and EU could agree a limited, very limited FTA perhaps covering import duties and quotas.

What evidence do you have that this can be achieved in 2020?

They still have to sort out critical questions like fishing and N Ireland.

I am calling bullshit on that one.