No more frictionless trade

[Seventyone72seventy3]

So much for getting rid of red tape, we are going to have much, much more of it!
Michael Gove confirms post-Brexit trade barriers will be imposed

www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/10/checks-on-eu-bound-goods-inevitable-gove-tells-business-leaders?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
How many businesses are going to go under because of this?

www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/10/checks-on-eu-bound-goods-inevitable-gove-tells-business-leaders?

brexit is so illogical. I wish that the leaders of the country would give some vision or narriative of the future; I might not like it, but at least we would have an idea of where the country is heading. It's not clear from the article or generally whether the gov think new trade barriers with the EU are a good or a bad thing. maybe it's because they disagree or, more likely in my opinion, the press for Brexit over the last 40 has been driven by ideology rather they policy and they don't actually know what they want in practise.

Gove has no understanding of
or care about
what he has unleashed

This will affect my business with all the extra red tape on importing goods from Europe. What is beyond a joke is that all businesses have to be prepared from Day 1 to try and cope with this but the Government has admitted that all the necessary technology that they require to be in place will not be ready until 2025. If businesses were run as the Government runs the country we would all literally be bankrupt.

It's an interesting new salvo from the Brexiters: try to seize control by claiming that friction-full trade was always the obvious & only plan.

... if only there were some useful quotes Led By Donkeys could advertise to remind us what Brexiters recently promised everyone about trade barriers.

But we will get blue passports?made in poland surely that makes it worthwhile?

Yes Im being sarcastic,

I'm tired of the will of the people overriding common sense surely if the will of the people was listened to that closely Michael would have taken a run and jump by now?

It's an interesting new salvo from the Brexiters: try to seize control by claiming that friction-full trade was always the obvious & only plan.

Not so much frictionless trade as friction; less trade.

LBC news 20 minutes ago:

"UK exports at an all time high, with goods exports to non-EU countries growing by 13.6% on 2018."

www.gov.uk/government/news/2019-was-record-breaking-year-for-uk-exports

Gonna hold off on comment on that until we know what the breakdown looks like.

Gold exports are a big chunk of U.K. exports to non-EU destinations, and gold prices have risen very significantly since 2018.

From the ONS:

"In line with international standards, the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS’s) headline trade statistics contain the UK’s exports and imports of non-monetary gold. Non-monetary gold is the technical term for gold bullion not owned by central banks.
Because a significant amount of the world’s trade in non-monetary gold takes place on the London markets, this trade can have a large impact on the size of and change in the UK’s headline trade figures."

Bit of critical thinking for you Clav, of those non EU countries how many have EU trade agreements?

Second bit, it cites meat and fish as big increases in exports, way above the overall average. What is the biggest market for those?

Ok, so gold is the explanation for growth in exports as I suspected.

Almost all the growth in exports to China and Switzerland was non-monetary good, and the reason exports rose was because the gold price went up.

it cites meat and fish as big increases in exports, way above the overall average.What is the biggest market for those?

We won't starve then - I love meat and fish.

And the trade deficit widened in Q4 after adjusting for inflation and "non-specified" goods (including non-monetary gold). See the blue line in this ONS graph.

So this is just typical Truss spin (in fairness her understanding of trade is probably on a level with Clav's so she may simply not understand the numbers).

And the trade deficit widened in Q4 after adjusting for inflation and "non-specified" goods (including non-monetary gold).

No doubt those figures were compiled before the December election - we have had a post election 'bounce' in several areas;

"The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 53.9 January, a full point higher than a preliminary reading for the month and up from 50.0 in December."

"It was the strongest reading since September 2018 and higher than all forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists, which had pointed to a reading of 52.9."

The spin is getting desperate.

How could Q4 trade figures be complied before the December election? That's just nonsensical.

Not nonsensical at all -

"These data are our best estimates of bilateral UK trade flows"

1.For certain statistics initial estimates are released with the expectation that these may be revised and updated as further data becomes available.
2.Revisions may also be made when methods or systems are changed.

The Q4 trade figures are estimates because virtually all economic data is an estimate. An estimate, produced after the fact, is different to a forecast, which is a prediction made before the fact.

Trade data relating to Q4 2019 released in Q1 2020 is an estimate not a forecast. It has nothing to do with the election: the ONS compiles data continuously.

How anyone can have such strong opinions with such a tenuous grasp of basic facts is beyond me.

So when the data shows something you don't like its am estimate and therefore not correct, when the same data shows something you did like its perfectly correct?

Its that critical thinking that lets you down time and time again.

In fairness, most economic data is an estimate and therefore "wrong" to some degree. Though trade is one area where we do have some real world data that is measured continuously (from customs declarations).

That doesn't excuse mixing up estimates and forecasts, and suggesting that the ONS basically made up Q4 trade data before the election

(I don't understand what the election would have to do with it tbh, as all developed countries collect and publish trade data continuously).

But you are missing the point completely. At the moment we have frictionless trade. In January next year we won't and that is when it all changes not now and in the past.

ONS:

"The source for data on trade in goods with non-EU countries is Extrastat. In general, the figures for trade with non-EU countries show the trade as declared by importers and exporters or their agents and for which documentation had been received and processed by HMRC during the month.Under the procedures for control of exports, the principle is the same–namely that goods cannot be cleared for export until a Customs declaration has been made."

"Traders can, if they wish, submit a simplified declaration so that the goods can be exported, which has to be followed within 14 days after date of shipment with a complete export declaration.The processing of these complete export documents begin three working days before the end of the calendar month (two days for December)." "Thus, the export statistics compiled for a month (which are based on the date of receipt of the complete export documents) do not correspond with goods actually shipped in the calendar month."

"In general, the figures for trade with non-EU countries show the trade as declared by importers and exporters or their agents and for which documentation has been received and processed by HMRC during the month."

That doesn't excuse mixing up estimates and forecasts, and suggesting that the ONS basically made up Q4 trade data before the election

I didn't suggest that at all - you have misread my post.

Clav, I pointed out that the Q4 data showed the trade deficit widening, and you replied:

"No doubt those figures were compiled before the December election"

Which figures? Q4 trade data cannot, by definition, have been complied before an election which took place in early December.