Westminstenders: From Uxbridge to...?

[RedToothBrush]

Speaker Bercow is gone.

Speculation that Johnson is parachuting into Rutland.

Rumours that the Brexit Party won't contest the election.

A new speaker to be elected on Monday.

Parliament to dissolve next week.

Brexit? Oh we've forgotten that until Friday 13th...

Article from the guardian highlights the confusion around the policy and that it's unlikely to be fully implemented

That's wonderful. So if the Tories had passed an explicitly policy-making vote at their party conference to - oh, I don't know - abolish the NHS, would you be giving them the benefit of the doubt and saying it's unlikely to be fully implemented so no one should worry about it?

Just imagine the following quote: "Sajid Javid later promised every part of the [NHS Abolition] policy would be carried out on a “consultation basis”, and that he could not see the use of “draconian measures” to enforce it."

Yep, they'd definitely get the benefit of the doubt on that one! "Wait for the manifesto", you'd all be saying...

Former Tory PM John Major has stated that he thinks the NHS is unsafe in his party's hands now
and specified that

e.g. BJ & Gove want to abolish the NHS in its current form:

"The NHS is about as safe with them as a pet hamster would be with a hungry python”

The danger to the NHS will worry far more voters than any policies on private schools, used by 7% of the population,

The Tories will never put "abolish the NHS" in a manifesto, but the concessions required in a US trade deal will wreck it

The way to abolish a service that voters value so highly is to keep it for years with insufficient resources, so that it gradually ceases to work.
A fait accompli.

Think there’s a fair likelihood that the election won’t be as conclusive as many hope. I can see the following happening:

No overall control, both main parties down on seats, so it’s possibly new leadership contests for both.

Gove for Tories, Starmer for Labour. Watson or Cooper as interim, possibly Javid too if Boris strops off immediately. Swinson’s seat isn’t safe.

Then the possibility that something can be stitched together from:

1. Promise of 2nd EU referendum (LDs)
2. Promise of 2nd Indyref (after 1 not before) (SNP)

Plus additional powers for Senedd & Stormont, Green New Deal, consultation on workable form of PR and promise that if 1 has repeat leave result it’s Norway.

That’s a lot to negotiate. That’s a lot of time and a lot of hurdles to get over. And a lot more polling days and a lot more electoral fatigue. Never mind things like local and London, Manchester, Liverpool and Tees Valley Mayoral elections in 2020, Scottish, Welsh elections in 2021, Stormont election in 2022. Plus more Mayoral and local elections along the way.

Lot of the EU having to agree extensions , which they probably would atm but they have big elections looming too- Spain next week, Germany
in 2021, France in 2022. So reputations to be shored up beforehand and then mandates change and negotiating stances change. EU Comission council presidencies are changing too. Oh, and POTUS polls next year.

Spain have had a general election every year for four years, we’re going down the a similar path. They have big independence issues too, plus re-emergence of far left and far right, so both lessons to be learned and stumbling blocks along the way (especially if Indyref2 is on the cards- will Spain agree an extension over that period if Catalonia heats up even more? Depends if it’s left or right, how strong government is or even if they’re headed for 5 elections in 5 years due to continued logjam).

Will the Italian coalition to keep the far right out last til 2023 and beyond? And I’ve not wrapped my head around electoral cycles and challenges in other EU countries.

So, unless we go for multiple elections/referendums on the same day (for which electoral reform might be needed e.g. repeal FTPA and then FPTP could come up again as the price of passing that, in which case possibly another referendum), that is a long time.

And with things that finely balanced by-elections count and parliament could dissolve at any time.

Then 2024 EU elections...

Cendrillon V few people care about private schools the way you obviously do
but almost everyone cares about the NHS

If the Tory conference ever openly said "abolish the NHS" of course they would be toast at the next GE
So none of us here would need say anything

Labour removing charitable status etc - few voters give a damn

Britain deserves better

BigChocFrenzy

Labour has been campaigning on "The Tories will destroy the NHS" since the 1950s - it's pure core vote stuff that they put out in their sleep.

Since the Tories have been in power for the majority of the time since then, sometimes with huge majorities, if we had wanted to abolish the NHS it would be long gone by now...

You can check the relative importance of NHS vs private schools on MN or other forums by posting e.g.

e.g. former Tory PM says BJ & Gove want to abolish the NHS in its current form:

"The NHS is about as safe with them as a pet hamster would be with a hungry python”

and also
"Labour party conference vote to remove charitable status from private schools"

Then come back and tell us about the relative outrage caused by the 2 statements
on a scale of 1 to 10

Cendrillon Big difference: This time Labour can quote a Tory PM:

"The NHS is about as safe with them as a pet hamster would be with a hungry python”

Civics lessons to be compulsory and on the curriculum from the ages of 10 up

Votes for EU Nationals paying tax here

Votes for 16/17 year olds

Compulsory voting

Justanotherposter00 - The Scots already have 3 out of the 4 on that list in operation - at least for Scottish Parliament - although it's not just for EU nationals who pay tax, it's for all EU citizens.

And Modern Studies (which includes how political systems work) is compulsory up until S3 (Y10) as part of the "Broad General Education" although some schools stop it in S2

No compulsory voting though and I'm not sure what the SNP's policy is on votes for prisoners.

V few people care about private schools the way you obviously do but almost everyone cares about the NHS

7% of all children (rising to around 20% at secondary level) produces no small voting bloc amongst their parents, and an even bigger one if we include those who aspire to using private education or believe it to be a good thing for the country in principle.

Of course the NHS affects more people, but at the same time no one really believes the Tories will ever abolish it, for electoral reasons if nothing else, whereas those who care about private education really care about private education.

Oh for crissakes Cendrillon it’s on it’s knees. Tories aren’t stupid enough to abolish outright, that’d be electoral death.
It’s a strategy of run it down and tinker with it to engineer crises that necessitate “reforms” of ever increasing magnitude until it collapses and there is “no choice” but to change it.

If that’s to a French model, all well and good, but I doubt the US corporations are lining up for that eventuality.

Private schools are used by 7% of the population
The NHS is used by 97% of the population

If Private schools all closed tomorrow, the vast bulk of the population would not notice.
If the NHS closed tomorrow, they would.

The Labour conference vote will not be enacted in the form it took that day for a very simple reason: Special Schools
so its unlikely to go into a manifesto until that aspect is fully resolved.

I'm completely opposed to compulsory voting

It's an infringement of personal liberty

Much better policy:
Have GEs spread over a few days, 6am - 10 pm, including the WE, to make it much easier for the time-poor to vote

Big difference: This time Labour can quote a Tory PM:

The NHS is about as safe with them as a pet hamster would be with a hungry python

That quote gets repeated on here 100 times a day like a religious mantra. Those who are excited by it would never vote Tory anyway, and almost certainly never voted for John Major himself!

I can give you a dozen quotes from former Labour PMs about how far-left and loony Jeremy Corbyn is too - it's a fun game we can play all day!

I suppose it could be important for the percentage of the population who have a secondary aged child at private school. So that's 20% of people who have secondary aged children. I wonder how big a voting bloc that is really?

And then the private school issue needs to be their key factor
And then they need to belong to a party that wants to change private schools for it to be important.

So the importance becomes less and less.

I wonder how many Labour supporters have children currently in private education?

"If Private schools all closed tomorrow, the vast bulk of the population would not notice.
If the NHS closed tomorrow, they would."

^This

Also, both main parties form policies which appeal to their voters & potential voters, even if it pisses off some other voters
e.g. the Tory party with pensioner freebees and tax cuts for the better off, but sod the struggling young

For Labour, few of those 7% using private schools would consider voting Labour anyway
but it plays well to those Labour voters who want radical change

Cendrillon
7% of all children (rising to around 20% at secondary level)
That second part is utter rubbish.

former Labour PMs about how far-left and loony Jeremy Corbyn is

Callaghan died in 2005
Wilson died in '95

So I take it you mean Blair and Brown, they are both neo-liberalist I doubt they would sanction anyone who put forward re-distrubitive policies

Parents and grandparents and aspires might care enough.

But that 7% is likely quite clustered geographically. London & South-East, Edinburgh (20% of kids go to independent schools), some other cities. Unlikely to be evenly spread across the country.

Throw in some concessions for local day schools, you’re looking at a much lower %.

If these threads cannot tolerate dissent then they become pointless

I’ll correct that

Because these threads cannot tolerate dissent then they are becoming pointless

And that’s because it’s not what is said, it is who is saying it that is prioritised lately

For example Xenia can be pro-Tory on here but I get bullied off the thread for having previously voted Tory

Most people disagree with most of what just posts puts she’s sufficiently vile to me and others to stay on the right side of the line

It would be much more helpful if people stopped being prejudiced by the user names before you’ve read and formed and opinion on what is being posted

It’s also utterly ridiculous to be so polarised in what does and doesn’t suit you for example hoping that the 2nd referendum promise agreed at the Labour Party conference forms part of the labour manifesto but that the commitment to abolish private schools doesn’t - you can’t pick and chose the bits you like

But that 7% is likely quite clustered geographically. London & South-East, Edinburgh (20% of kids go to independent schools), some other cities. Unlikely to be evenly spread across the country

Percentages often fall apart when analysed closely

That second part is utter rubbish.

Is it now? The exact figure fluctuates, but I'm not off by more than a few percentage points:

www.independent.co.uk/voices/commentators/philip-hensher/philip-hensher-rejecting-oxbridge-isnt-clever-its-a-mistake-6292041.html

private schools educate 7 per cent of all children, rising to 18 per cent of those over 16

Secondary is over 12 Cendrillion, not over 16. You mean sixth form not secondary.

Cendrillon Most people have long ago formed their opinion of Corbyn, one way or the other,
so quotes from Blair & co won't change their minds

Anyway, Blair is pretty toxic to many voters, as much by Tory attacks on him over Iraq, as by Labour left ones

Many people now will automatically believe the opposite of what he says,
as the Remain and then PV campaigns (should) have found

Even though I never voted for Major (I cba to vote for about 30 years tbh ) I respected him when he was PM and trusted him to be honest

Many people, outside of the ideologues, respect a few politicians of all parties, who act honestly, decently and have common sense

Those who would be affected by his views are not the entrenched voters, but those who might consider changing their vote, when

a former Tory PM says:
"The NHS is about as safe with them as a pet hamster would be with a hungry python”

I respected him when he was PM and trusted him to be honest

I didnt at the time but that man has earned my respect in bucketloads in the past few years but is that an indication of where were at when even John Major seems reasonable to me