Westminstenders: From Uxbridge to...?

[RedToothBrush]

Speaker Bercow is gone.

Speculation that Johnson is parachuting into Rutland.

Rumours that the Brexit Party won't contest the election.

A new speaker to be elected on Monday.

Parliament to dissolve next week.

Brexit? Oh we've forgotten that until Friday 13th...

Xenia is desperately trying to get people to vote Tory.

Interesting datasheets from the latest YouGov poll.

Again - lots of don't knows who get ignored
Interesting to look at what people who voted Remain are thinking.

But it's all going to be about the tactical votes.

UKIP was founded by Prof. Alan Sked as a centre-left alternative to Labour, until it was infiltrated and taken over by Farage.

(Do you see a pattern?)

@DGRossetti - he was not talking about people blindly voting - as you describe. He was talking about people reading and researching. On this thread many moons ago there was discussion about the increase in enrolments in political science at A levels - unfortunately that generation don't get to vote - but hopefully we will get at least some of the population with a better understanding of the system- and maybe working to change it.

I'm constantly amazed that people who have been sentient for the last 3 years can even consider voting for the people who created entirely the current situation. Delusion/denial of the highest order.

I agree with Xenia that many people vote tribally
However some will break with tribalism if their views for / against Brexit are sufficiently strong

imo the numbers who do so may determine the GE result, if one side stays party tribal more than the other
It is also the effect of how this plays out among the multiple of smaller parties and seat distribution under FPTP

So, atm a hung Parliament looks nearly as likely as a Tory win

As a centrist Remainer, I'd be happy with a hung Parliament that can form a GNU to resolve Brexit with as wide a consensus as possible,
instead of just 1 party deciding the future of the country for decades to come

The one party that would refuse to won't participate in a GNU is the Conservative Party

So much for them wanting the best for the country (and by that I mean the UK- they couldn't give a fuck about the constituent countries of this dis United Kingdom)

@DGRossetti - he was not talking about people blindly voting - as you describe. He was talking about people reading and researching

I didn't say he was. My point - which still stands, by the way - is that "politically engaged" is one of those lovely weasel phrases that can cover an entire spectrum of people. Especially if you ask them to define it themselves. Much like self-ID . If you were to ask my MiL (I can't because we're NC) if she was politically engaged, you'd get a half hour reply about how she has always and will always vote Labour as a "yes" from her. Meanwhile I am sure there are people that devour the news, analysis, and debates whilst never actually casting a vote ...

And if "political engagement" is meant to encompass the "never-voted-before" UKIP-referndum types who voted once and expected mountains to move as a result, well ... I really don't know what to say.

I'm also constantly amazed at the ability of some to enthuse regarding getting the election sorted to resolve the current impasse, (a de facto referendum), but decrying calls for a final say referendum because 'democracy'

I'm behind on the thread but making a tangential post as I often do!

Often occasional posters, lurkers and those on other threads say they feel powerless- what can they do?

I always urge spending at least 5 minutes a day doing something ranging from joining local political party to commenting on a news or number 10 website.Or signing a petition.

Here is two things people can do.

1. For work I was asked to look at the Royal College of Nursing website and came across their petition confirming shortages have reached alarming levels.

This is what my hospital consultant friend says too.In her wards care plans are not followed through and the vulnerable die a result. She too says this pressure is unsustainable and it is what the government want because less staff shrinks the NHS without overt hospital closures.

The royal college wants help to put pressure on the Government and fight for them. Here is their petition to demand action from the Government to fix the nursing crisis .

I know petitions get ignored but its better than doing nothing and much better than denying there is a crisis.

I've signed and you get no further information and email addresses are not used for marketing purposes.

rcn.e-activist.com/page/48391/petition/1?ea.tracking.id=website

1. I got an email from Dominic Grieve asking for crowd funding. I'll post the link separately.

Farage not standing as a candidate anywhere this GE just confirms my suspicions: he just likes being a thorn in the side of the "Establishment" (even though he is himself Establishment ) and the profile that that gives him - added and abetted by the BBC (QT in particular) and the MSM

If he expected his party to win any seat, he'd be standing in that one, if he wanted to be a genuine political leader (as opposed to the owner CEO of a pressure group)

PM says failure to leave EU on 31 October is matter of ‘deep regret’

Is his regret as deep as a ditch?

The one party that would refuse to won't participate in a GNU is the Conservative Party

It would probably be their #1 objective . Gets them off the hook. Let's them play the "oh you wicked GNU" card every five seconds, and allows their natural moderate non-moron base to rebuild for December 2024. It also absolves them of all blame for anything that went before. Because as we know, everything that ever happened in the past is Labours fault. Even in 2019 - 9 years after Labour left power. Although that is balanced by the fact that even in 2009 - after 12 years of Labour, things were all the Tories fault.

And so life drags on - until the sweet release of death. Or a new Ed Sheeran album. Whichever costs less.

How deep is your ditch?
Ho deep is your ditch?
I really need to know.
Cos we're living in a world of fools...

...etc

The current Tory party is so rightwing and toxic that no other party would agree to support them,
except for the equally toxic DUP (who may be a bit smaller on 13 Dec)

Which is why they can't take power unless they - with the DUP - form a majority, whereas Labour could in colation or with C&S.

btw, this is another possible route to No Deal:
Another Tory minority govt dependent on the support of the DUP - who won't accept any WA with a backstop or frontstop

The Tory party would certainly sacrifice the wellbeing of the country if it meant staying in power
They already did so in 2015 - 2016 under a far more "moderate" leader, just to try to settle an internal party squabble

I love the narrative Farage is spinning that he won't stand to "coordinate the national campaign".

I wonder how scared he is that Brexit actually fucking happens ? He needs it not to. Which is why Boris deal must not pass. Even if that means Boris must not pass.

It will be interesting to see how BXP allocates it's campaigning. I'm guessing most seats will be left to their own devices (bad luck to any candidates who have "Invested" in their position expecting backup from BXP central). With a few bigged up for effect.

Boris' rejection of a BXP pact also has the added advantage of allowing him the moral high ground if Labour/LibDems were to consider a "stop Boris" pact advising tactical voting in key marginals.

The Bookies have a Conservative majority at 10/11 and no overall majority at 11/10

So basically 50/50 on either happening....

It's going to be an interesting few weeks.

Those odds have shifted from a Conservative majority chomalungma

Often it's the direction of movement that is most telling in the bookies' odds

Not counting any chickens though

The current Tory party is so rightwing and toxic that no other party would agree to support them.
I bet you ten Brexit 50ps Jo Swinson would team up with the Tories. She's done it before and brought in austerity with them. The Johnson cabinet is only "right wing" on law and order. A Johnson govt will unfreeze benefits and pensions. Frank Field was just on Lbc pointing out that Johnson is a one nation Tory as his voting record shows. So Frank Field , being a pragmatist, is clearly signalling that he would work with Johnson if he did good things.

Xenia is desperately trying to get people to vote Tory.
That is an unfair comment. There is a large 'anyone but the tories' present on this thread for very understandable reasons. But at the same time the vilification of Remainers who have voted tory in the past doesn't sit well with me either. It doesn't help shift the tribalism.

As for Xenia's comment
I suspect people will vote along their traditional Labour or Tory lines in this election, not Brexit P or LibDem but we shall see.

I think Xenia is more right than wrong for a number of reasons. Firstly I don't believe the Brexit Party will stand many candidates. Where they do it will be for tactical reasons.

Equally whilst I think many will jump ship to the LDs in certain constituencies, I do think that switching allegiance will be much more localised than a national phenomenon. It will be influenced by the mood in social circles (all my mates are changing how they vote, so I will too) which will be more prevalent in heavily remain areas. Which the LDs are targeting in particular anyway.

In other areas, the LDs aren't interested and there isn't either the many nor manpower to get behind a campaign.

Those areas are much more likely to follow a more traditional pattern, especially as we get closer to the election as when pushed voters will take a much more 'anyone but the tories' or 'Corbyn will destroy us' line which favours Labour and the Conservatives. We are already seeing this start to creep in, in campaigning, not helped by itv and its possibly showing in polling too.

That's what makes the election unpredictable.

My suspicion is the LDs will only do well in very heavily remain areas and areas with a traditional LD voter base from the 2010 era (but not necessarily as widespread as 2010s successes). This would damage the Conservatives in particular but might harm Labour in a few London constituencies particularly with a localised issue (I'm thinking Golders Green, Vauxhall, Kensington and Westminster as examples - which notably have been identified by the LD with high profile defectors in all but one).

We shall see.

They shift their odds too if more people bet on a particular outcome
So they can be a useful indicator as to outcome, but not an opinion poll

Johnson wanted this election. Johnson called this election. If he comes out as largest party but with fewer seats than before, I can quite see Queenie following her grandad's lead from 1923-4 and sending for the Labour leader instead.

(Not that she's biased or anything.)

I can't see the queen touching this pile of shite with a barge pole.

"The Johnson cabinet is only "right wing" on law and order"

NO

BJ is NOT a One Nation Tory:
He has no genuine political views, only what helps his career - pretending to be "liberal" was necessary to get elected as London Mayor

However, BJ's cabinet contain the most rightwing members ever,
ERG members who have openly called for a Bonfire of Regulations etc

who have published articles on removing workers rights, consumer rights, environmental regs, e.g.

JRM:
“We could say, if it’s good enough in India, it’s good enough for here.
There’s nothing to stop that.

Priti Patel:
boasted to the Institute of Directors about the "bonfire of workers' rights" she wants after Brexit.

Also talked of "starving out Ireland" as leverage in negotiations