Westminstenders: From Uxbridge to...?

[RedToothBrush]

Speaker Bercow is gone.

Speculation that Johnson is parachuting into Rutland.

Rumours that the Brexit Party won't contest the election.

A new speaker to be elected on Monday.

Parliament to dissolve next week.

Brexit? Oh we've forgotten that until Friday 13th...

Hateisnotgood - not only are we eating into our transition time but if we want an extension, we have to ask for it by the end of June or have agreed a/the future trading relationship by then - if not, it's automatic No Deal

Trade Deals have to be agreed by all the members (it was why TTIP was never going to happen) before they can be implemented - hence the need for 6 months to complete that process.

Thanks 'Franks', so the 'transition period' currently in operation is the one attached to the WAB that is proceeding through Parliament but stalled because a GE is called.

If the WAB doesn't proceed sufficiently before the 31st Jan 2020 than No Deal could be a possibility.

I suppose, given all the proposed, alleged proposed amendments to the WAB, in order for it to proceed through Parliament it would be more expedient to hold a GE and see if we have an HoC majority for the WAB, so that 'orderly transition time' isn't unnecessarily eaten up.

And of course if the electorate support Revoke, not sure but maybe a CU or not sure, Scots Indy Ref2 or whatever then any rethink has some validity.

The only result I hope for is a landslide for the Alliance Party in NI.

To be clear - unless the wab is brought back before dissolution (ie Mon or Tue ) then it's null and void - its no longer progressing, its dead, stiff, shuffled off its mortal coil, its an ex-bill etc etc.
It (or a variant) will have to be brought back again in the new parliamentary session.

if we want an extension, we have to ask for it by the end of June

And extending will involve money. This will not be at all straightforward to agree. I posted earlier that Johnson may get hemmed in on this if the new clutch of Tory MPs are highly ideological, as an extension (and the cost of an extension) will need to be approved by Parliament.

Very surprised that people don't seem to know this, though I suppose I shouldn't be.

We have to apply to extend the transition period by end June, otherwise it ends on 31 Dec 2020 with No Deal.

There is definitely no time to negotiate future trade deals by then - trade negotiations and then approvals by 38 national and regional Parliaments would take several years

It was noticeable that although we have had 3 A50 extensions since the original Brexit date of 31 March 2019,
neither side suggested that the transition end date be extended to match

unless the wab is brought back before dissolution (ie Mon or Tue ) then it's null and void - its no longer progressing, its dead, stiff, shuffled off its mortal coil, its an ex-bill etc etc.

In practice what this means is that there is next to zero prospect of Brexit happening by the end of January and a new extension will be required. Brexit will happen probably at the end of March if the Tories get a majority.

That will give a whole three months before we have to formally request an extension to the transition, and if no extension is requested, a further six months before a "no trade deal" exit (it's not quite no deal because the NI frontstop will remain operational).

If the WAB has not been passed by 31 January, I expect the EU would grant a further extension - if there is No Deal, then they want that decision to be the UK's

Yep, the WA safeguards NI, but once transition is over, there are no safeguards for GB

The Tories can do whatever they want after transition, which for the ERG would be their Bonfire of workers rights
The only reason most of the ERG support the WA is that BJ promised them a No Deal on 31 Dec 2020

A Tory Brexit would be totally different to a Labour Brexit, wrt the future trade deal and the future of workers & consumer rights, the environment etc

Yes, absolutely BCF.

• Technical extension to end March to pass the WAB and get approval by the EP.

• Transition ends 9 months later, most likely with no trade deal in plaçe.

Gives an orderly Brexit in that there is no hard border in Ireland and citizens' rights are kinda-sorta managed, but a disorderly Brexit for trade purposes.

Sorry - I'm trying to respond, perhaps pedantically, to

transition period' currently in operation

There is no transition period currently in operation.

When a WAB is passed and finalised by the EU then any transition period in the WAB can start, because the UK will then have withdrawn from the EU.

The transition proposed in the unpassed WAB ends 31/12/20.

I would expect shenanigans in the next session to either amend that date or couple a transition extension because virtually nothing wrt a new trade deal can happen in 6 months.

You're absolutely right Hasenstein

Any transition period however long or short only comes into effect once we've signed the WA. That is also the point that we formally leave the EU.

On a practical level, that's when our MEPs become unemployed

"the majority of leavers are in favour of it as well as moderate remain voters who want the ref result to be honoured."

NO
As a Remainer, I would supported a Norway++ compromise ever since the ref
and I reluctantly supported May's WA, because the Level Playing Field prevented the Tories from a race to the bottom on workers' rights
and also the May backstop prevented No Deal

However, I do not support this WA
It allows a No Deal on 31 Dec 2020
and even if BJ requests an extended transition for an FTA, it allows him to give the ERG their Bonfire of Workers Rights

Trying again, especially for @squid4
: the last of my "flowers from the garden". Not bad for 1 November (which is when I picked them and took the picture)

What happens if it takes so much time to pass the WAB that the deadline for a transition extension has already passed?

(I have a little theory that Johnson is actually in no hurry to pass the WAB).

Frankie I doubt if BJ would request an extension to the transition:

The ERG want No Deal and most of them only support this WA because he promised them that they could have it on 31 Dec 2020

There would be a massive Tory row - and as we've seen from Cameron and May, Tory PMs cave in when the ERG demand "their" Brexit.

When do we lose our rebates on what we pay in ?

Is it Dec 2020 so if we extend past that we will be paying full whack ?

Misti The EU are v v unlikely to give an extension that long - at least not to a Tory Brexiter govt -
because they will want the Uk out of the way before the serious negotiations on the 7-year EU budget

Until about June, there is no serious EU business that the UK could wreck
However, the budget would then take priority over any wish to avoid letting No Deal happen by default.

They won't risk the Tories using the budget negotiations to apply pressure wrt Brexit & the future.
So if it were a Labour / GNU govt that they could trust to behave and not be a wrecker, that would be different.

Basil Our rebates are currently only until 31 Dec 2020

However, the UK govt would try to negotate continuing rebates in the event of an extended transition
I'd normally expect that to succeed, but with the current level of govt incompetence & arrogance, who knows.

BCF having read that Germany’s contribution is set to double I doubt they will be in the mood to be offering us a discount?

Is there any mention of this in the German press that you have seen?

When we enter transition (ie assuming that the WA is passed by the next government ), we lose the rebate because we'll no longer be paying into the EU as a member. What we will be paying is the "divorce settlement" - things we've already committed to when the investment was agreed - and a fee for ongoing access to the Single Market (during transition) - in the same way that Norway/EFTA countries have to pay for access to the Single Market (without a say in the laws & regulations that they have to comply with although Norway spends a lot on lobbying ).

It is highly debatable whether, if the UK changes its mind during the transition period and want to rejoin that we'd retain/regain the rebate. Technically, we'd still be ok with the acquis commaunitaire (alignment of the necessary laws & regulations) as we have to stay aligned during transition.

I also wonder what would need to be paid to keep NI (effectively no matter what BJ says ) in the SM/CU

Basil The double was an exaggeration, but it will go up
That has always been factored in after Brexit was announced, so no real shock here

Anyway, the German annual budget surplus was 58 billion (!) so it won't be a strain

pretty The EU did say we could have a very Fast Track Rejoin if we chose during transition

If the UK govt for once negotiated properly, I'd expect to keep current terms
That would be an example where we actually would have a strong negotiating hand

Also, I expect the EU would wish to appear magnanimous to an ex-member who changes its mind.

I know we're sceptical about polls but I did wonder if we'd see a Corbyn bounce and Boris flattening out....

Boris Johnson’s Conservatives are only eight points ahead of Labour, according to a poll for The Sunday Telegraph.
The ORB International survey for the newspaper puts the Tories on 36 per cent, with 28 for Labour, 14 per cent for the Liberal Democrats and 12 per cent for Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party.
Undertaken on Wednesday and Thursday, the new poll is likely to spark concern within the Conservative campaign.
Experts warned that Mr Johnson will need to significantly increase his lead to be sure of securing a majority.

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/02/tory-majority-doubt-telegraph-poll-shows-lead-just-eight-points/?WT.mc_id=tmgoff_hootsuite&utm_source=tmgoff_socialteam&utm_medium=twitter&utm_content=0d8a4f96-c077-4cfe-a3d9-0ab6043b1457&utm_campaign=telepolitics

The ERG want No Deal and most of them only support this WA because he promised them that they could have it on 31 Dec 2020

Is this certain, or is it only speculation? Can you provide a source? If it’s true, the EU is hardly going to be pleased about the massive (additional) waste of time and money. I would have thought they’d have something to say on the matter.

I agree with you BigChoc - they've said that they would fast-track the joining rejoining process - and there is no reason to doubt that (as we'd still meet the criteria). But I'm cynical/not confident about the full rebate being part of that - mainly because of this bit of of your post: If the UK govt for once negotiated properly

....there's been no evidence to date that the UK is capable of that