Westminstenders: From Uxbridge to...?

[RedToothBrush]

Speaker Bercow is gone.

Speculation that Johnson is parachuting into Rutland.

Rumours that the Brexit Party won't contest the election.

A new speaker to be elected on Monday.

Parliament to dissolve next week.

Brexit? Oh we've forgotten that until Friday 13th...

Maybe we should have referendum for every policy the Government wants to introduce grin

There were some folks suggesting every trade policy should be put to a referendum on my MPs Facebook page. I imagined him banging his head on his desk repeatedly.

In my personal experience the leave voters I know are all southern Tory middle class baby boomers very much in the 'I'm alright jack' category.

A sample size of a dozen friends/acquaintances who are happy to share their Brexit views can hardly be extrapolated nationally.

The Leave voters I know who have changed their minds are working class.

I know a few northern leave voters - I have aunts and uncles and cousin who voted leave. They’re rural working class (if that makes sense). It probably doesn’t matter who they vote for in the GE. Their constituency (Skipton & Ripon) has been Tory ever since it came into existence in 1983 (Julian Smith currently holds the seat - he got 62.7% of the vote in 2017 and has a majority of ~20,000). In fact the last time anyone other than the Tories won in that constituency or it’s predecessors in a General Election was in... 1906

Maybe we should have referendum for every policy the Government wants to introduce grin

Thats what Arron Banks wants. He calls it 'direct democracy'.

It's the tyranny of the majority though and is bad for minorities and loses the nuance of liberal democracy which looks at problems of this nature to protect minorities even if they don't have majority public support. It would be a very dangerous path...

How does the Brexit party fund candidates?
www.thebrexitparty.org/brexit-club/
And it makes the candidates pay ....
All of the PPCs candidates have paid £350 .... many many thousands of them
and only a few will end up standing

You need a proper 'constituency' level map - with equal size, to draw more valid conclusions.

I am looking at constituency maps

I am looking at constituency maps

Have you got a link to some images?

Thought age and education were the biggest difference between Leave and Remain voters. Class didn’t really come into it.

Map data for assessing remain / leave in format that shows population not geography
odileeds.org/projects/petitions/?241584
(the right hand tabs are the relevant ones)

Maybe we should have referendum for every policy the Government wants to introduce grin

We should never have a referendum again until we have a system and an electoral authority with real powers that promotes fair votes free of unchallenged lies and misinformation, free of foreign interference and free of targeted social media propaganda campaigns - no just no.

PS
Hover over a cell to get the individual data

Their constituency (Skipton & Ripon) has been Tory ever since it came into existence in 1983

Skipton and Ripon are very different places compared to many Northern towns. Rural North Yorkshire is very different to Batley, Rotherham, Goole.....

Leaving the EU was never going to be as "simple" for the UK as it was for Greenland.

Despite only have c50,000 people and one single industry (fishing), it still took 3 years for them to leave. And they've ended up in a sort of arms length relationship anyway (along the lines of EFTA but for the various overseas territories of EU members) - where their citizens are still EU citizens and they are still eligible for EU funding

Letwin amendment in same format
odileeds.org/projects/divisions/?1150744

That's interesting Prettybird. The arms length relationship actually sounds pretty good right now.

Thats what Arron Banks wants [a referendum for every policy]. He calls it 'direct democracy'.

....and that's exactly why Germany banned referendums as they encourage the rise of populism, extremism and created the circumstances that allowed Hitler to take power

The maps showing the referendum result by area and the maps showing the parliamentary constituencies don’t actually correspond. So it’s difficult to compare the two in a meaningful manner.

My referendum area voted (narrowly) to leave, but I strongly suspect that my (urban) parliamentary constituency voted remain whilst the surrounding rural areas that are not part of my parliamentary constituency swing the vote for the referendum area as a whole to leave. Of course this is impossible to prove - but subsequent election results at all levels certainly support my hypothesis.

Too many red lines FadingStar - including effectively being in a customs union, freedom of movement and accepting EU regulations

Matthew Goodwin @goodwinmj
This is what would make me nervous if I was a Lib Dem...

"I will definitely vote for my party"
Conservatives 71%
Labour 60%
#Brexit Party 55%
^Lib Dems 31%

..and that's exactly why Germany banned referendums as they encourage the rise of populism, extremism and created the circumstances that allowed Hitler to take power

Yep...ds1 and ds2 keep telling me this

All estimates and impact statements of Brexit - even the govt's own ones - are that it will make the country substantially poorer for at least the next decade

Damaging UK trade because of ideology - deliberately and knowing in advance - is the ultimate "Fuck Business"

The effect will be greater than the 2008 financial crisis, from which the wages of ordinary wc people have still not recovered
The UK matches Greece for the loss in average real wages since 2007 - other EU countries have long recovered and moved on

Does anyone really think the Tories will make sure the poorest and most vulnerable will be protected and that only the better off will pay for the Tory Brexit ?

Oubliette
It is true that the areas where Local Authority District Electoral areas do not match Parliamentary constituencies muddy the waters
BUT
If you lay several of the OI data sets side by side, the correlations start to stack up.

TBH - I don't think we'll be having any more referenda after all the debacle of the last 3 years.

We should look at our voting system though. It doesn't seem right if many MP gets elected with less than 30% of the vote as has been predicted might happen.

Ideally, an MP should have at least 50% of a vote.

@RufusthebewiIderedreindeer
"Exactly...and sometimes you just have to hold your nose and vote for the least worst
Exactly this - but it upsets me hugely that it's a matter of voting for the least worse.

But given I am in Gauke's constituency (who I have never voted for in the past) - his huge majority means my vote is worthless