If the deal passes tomorrow then when can we stop worrying about no deal?

[BercowsFlyingFlamingo]

ie when can we stop stashing and start eating? or more seriously: when can we relax and stop worrying about medicine and food shortages?

Even if this deal passes (spoiler: it won't) that won't make an exit from Europe any less catastrophic

I'm not convinced it will pass but can't call it. It might just scrape through. I don't want to leave the EU at all but if we do leave I want to do so with a deal that doesn't shit on anyone. The uncertainty is awful but I don't want a deal just to "get it over with."

Have posted on a different thread but this is worrying ... twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1185182594566111232?s=21

No we can’t

fullfact.org/europe/no-deal-brexit-2020-end-transition/

Also, google the letwin amendment. The worry is that MPs will vote for the deal, which stops boris having to apply for an extension, then BJ let’s us leave with no deal in place anyway.

No one trusts Boris and they’re right not to.

If the deal passed (a big if), then it actually paves the way for a no deal.exit in 2021(?).

All the negotiating about what our relationship with the EU will look like post WA, is yet to be had.

We know how well the last three years of negotiations have gone. I don't hold out much hope for future negotiations.

I'm my view, the sooner MPs accept that they are hopelessly divided, just like the people in the country are, the better.

My preferred option would be another referendum. No deals v Johnson's deal v revoke. With proportional representation.

For the benefit of those who feel the need to know what my particular view is, my vote would be no deal last, Johnson's deal second, revoke first

Apparently Raab sought assurances from Johnson that No Deal is still possible at the end of the transition period and received them. These same assurances are being used to persuade members of the ERG to vote for the deal.

I fear this deal just postpones No Deal.

Well I guess the positive thing is that I've learnt how to stockpile what we need as a family so can easily do so again if need be. Silver linings and all that tomorrow is going to be very tense and I suspect at the end of it all we still won't know exactly what will happen.

Agree babooshka

The uncertainty is what is driving me a bit bonkers, how likely is it the deal will pass? I’ve read so many ‘experts’ opinions in the media that I just can make sense of what can happen now?

I mean I can’t make sense of it obviously

how likely is it the deal will pass

It really could go either way, so nobody knows.

This whole thing is driving me crazy. I'm seriously struggling to concentrate at work because of it... and I feel guilty about that on top of feeling shit-scared about Brexit. But it feels as though most people I know are just carrying on as normal.

I feel the same OffTheShelfElf, I am finding it all very stressful

I hope it passes as it better than crashing out with no deal and someone said we can't have an extension and if we did it would be the same mess again and a general election would/wouldn't solve anything and this madness will go on forever......bit like my sentence.

Even if it does pass, Brexit will go on for years. There’s nothing binding in the political declaration, it’s all up for negotiation. It’s barely started.

Best thing is to revoke, that’s the only way this will all stop.

Thescrew , good to know I'm not the only one (not that I want other people to struggle, IYKWIM).

@Snowy111, couldn't agree more.

You can’t stop worrying about no-deal until we revoke A50... if this deal goes through, then depending on the Letwin Amendment, we could still no-deal on the 31st October this year or 31st December next year. Anyone who trusts Boris is an absolute fool.

All the talk of the EU27 refusing an extension is rubbish.

@OffTheShelfElf
"This whole thing is driving me crazy. I'm seriously struggling to concentrate at work because of it... and I feel guilty about that on top of feeling shit-scared about Brexit. But it feels as though most people I know are just carrying on as normal."
There is no point in doing anything other than carry on as normal. Whether the WA passes or not, it is beyond our control. What I do if I'm not happy about something, is, if I can do something about it then I do, but if I can't do anything about it then I decide not to think about it any further.

I know it's stressful for everyone but it sounds like you are struggling so much more than you should be about this. I wonder whether you could refer yourself to IAPT for therapy to help you overcome your anxiety.

@OffTheShelfElf I'm the same, could barely concentrate the past couple of days from worry and anger. Also been eating far too much chocolate.

Why would anyone think that Boris Johnson would not want to secure a free trade agreement with the EU? I think that 'remainers' and 'leavers' all want that, including MPs of all parties.

We want to trade with the EU. We sell a lot to the EU so obviously would not want to lose that trade. We just want to trade freely while being able to make our own laws, but not have to accept freedom of movement.

It'll be the most basic of the basic if he does - there's no time for anything but agreement on some tariffs.

So ... may well be looking at what amounts to No Deal a year or so from hence.

Yes, you could have stopped when rhe law was passed and don't worry about the end of 2020 the deal includes a clause to extend if the fta is not made law by then.

However there is going to be a percentage of the population who cling onto it for as long as they can.

Why would anyone think that Boris Johnson would not want to secure a free trade agreement with the EU? I think that 'remainers' and 'leavers' all want that, including MPs of all parties.

We want to trade with the EU. We sell a lot to the EU so obviously would not want to lose that trade. We just want to trade freely while being able to make our own laws, but not have to accept freedom of movement.

But that is Johnson's 'Cake-ism' and is not on the table. It takes two parties to make an agreement and what Johnson wants, and what he promised during the Leave campaign, is all of the benefits of EU membership with none of the responsibilities or costs. It was a fantasy in 2016 and it is still a fantasy today. The current Withdrawal Agreement and the years of talks that will follow will see none of Johnson's promises come to fulfilment.

On 31st October the UK is due to leave the EU. On 1st November the UK ceases to be a partner of the EU and becomes a competitor. The EU has some very clear principles:

• No country can enjoy the benefits of membership unless they are a member,
• No country can enjoy better terms by leaving the EU than they would by remaining a member,
• No country can enjoy better terms than existing EU members enjoy,
• The primary duty of the EU is to prioritise the interests of member countries, not third countries (i.e. non-EU) and not ex-members (This applies to EU-UK trade and also to UK-rest of the world trade where the UK might seek to gain an advantage over the EU countries, e.g. at the WTO).

As for freedom of movement - at some point British citizens are going to realise that by pulling up the drawbridge, they have not only kept the foreigners out, but they have also locked themselves in. Once businesses relocate or simply close, once Raab, Patel and Truss can tear up all of the employee protections developed over the last 40 years, people will be fighting each other for jobs, any jobs, at any wage just to be able to put food on the table.

Will Boris Johnson be asking the EU for better terms than its members?

Re: FOM. Is anyone suggesting that we pull up the drawbridge? Just because we won't have FOM doesn't mean we won't let foreigners into our country. It just means we will decide on numbers and who can and can't come here. Just as EU countries will about UK citizens.
That sounds like a realistic thing to do.

I don't understand why you think any Tory MPs want to get rid of workers' rights.
It was announced yesterday that No10 pledged to hold a legally-binding vote on the final EU trade deal the UK strikes with the EU.

It effectively gives MPs a veto on any move to depart from EU standards on workers’ rights and environmental standards.

In the package are commitments to improve unfair dismissal protections by reducing the qualifying period from two years to one year, and also to tighten up employee terms and conditions following a business takeover.

Don't these show that workers rights won't be eroded?