Hard Brexit seems completely incompatible with the GFA. If we break a peace treaty because of Brexit, could the UN weigh in with sanctions etc?

[KennDodd]

I know Leavers say they are not incompatible but frankly I just don't understand this view apart from them just wishing it so. Anyway, would the UN have something to say? If so how or how not? Any legal minds out there?

I think a strongly worded letter from the UN would be the least of our worries if we no deal. Sanctions have to get unanimous support from the UN Security Council. So, I doubt it.

To OP

Chronology is;

1969 - Vienna Convention developed

1970 - Ratified by UK

1998 - GFA concluded. Predicated on basis that both NI and ROI remain in EU. BIC (British Irish Council) formed to promote strand three of the GFA

2006 - Ireland accession to Vienna Convention

2009 - Article 50, the procedure for members to leave EU agreed by all members.

2013 - Cameron announced he will have EU referendum if elected

2015 - Cameron was elected with majority

2016 - Referendum result was that UK leaves the EU.

2019 - High Court in Belfast ruled that a no deal departure by UK from EU does not breach the GFA. Link is

judiciaryni.uk/sites/judiciary/files/decisions/McCord%20%28Raymond%29%2C%20JR83%20and%20Jamie%20Waring%27s%20Applications%20v%20the%20Prime%20Minister%20and%20others.pdf

Article 62 of the Vienna Convention describes how fundamental changes to circumstances result in termination of treaties. Link is;

legal.un.org/ilc/texts/instruments/english/conventions/1_1_1969.pdf.

Nope, don't see it. And not clear whether you are referring to obiter comments.

Predicated on basis that both NI and ROI remain in EU

Not true. This is what it says: Wishing to develop still further the unique relationship between their peoples and the close co-operation between their countries as friendly neighbours and as partners in the European Union; and The Council to consider the European Union dimension of relevant matters, including the implementation of EU policies and programmes and proposals under consideration in the EU framework. Arrangements to be made to ensure that the views of the Council are taken into account and represented appropriately at relevant EU meetings. There is nothing in it that states continuing membership is a requirement. In fact, the NI attorney general stated the GFA does not require membership of the EU www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/good-friday-agreement-cannot-force-uk-to-stay-in-eu-says-ni-attorney-general-949602.html

High Court in Belfast ruled that a no deal departure by UK from EU does not breach the GFA.

Again, utter nonsense. This is not what they found. They determined the case was inherently political rather than a matter for the courts.

Article 62 of the Vienna Convention describes how fundamental changes to circumstances result in termination of treaties.

Again, a complete misreading of the article. I have previously pointed this out to you. This does not apply if one of the parties takes deliberate action to break the treaty.

This does not apply if one of the parties takes deliberate action to break the treaty

Article 50 allows any member to leave. UK have stated they will not install a border. So how is the treaty broken?

The GFA predates the Lisbon treaty. Perhaps the Irish should have considered the possibility that the perfidious little Englander Brits would leave the EU at some point. BUT we had a Labour government at the time, and it probably didn't register on anyone's radar.

However, when Cameron announced he wanted a referendum in early 2013, it should have rung alarm bells, and I don't understand why it didn't (or he was so sure he'd win he didn't listen to any advice, whether from Ireland or his own advisers).

However, when Cameron announced he wanted a referendum in early 2013, it should have rung alarm bells, and I don't understand why it didn't

Because British Irish Council did not take it into account. No protocol was developed for the border. If you look on the British Irish Council website there is no evidence of any action at all.

Article 50 allows any member to leave. UK have stated they will not install a border. So how is the treaty broken?

Which would contravene WTO most favoured nation rules unless they do the same for everyone else, so I can't see that lasting. After all, isn't the whole point of brexit about "taking back control".

Because British Irish Council did not take it into account. No protocol was developed for the border. If you look on the British Irish Council website there is no evidence of any action at all.

BIC started to consider it once it looked like the UK would not brexit in the way that was touted pre-referendum. All rhetoric prior to the referendum suggested a Norway+ option. This posed no threat to the GFA.

Which would contravene WTO most favoured nation rules unless they do the same for everyone else, so I can't see that lasting

UK only has to do it long enough for EU to make the first move and commence construction first. Suppliers of dodgy products are more likely to target NI first when they hear there is easy passage into EU via NI.

Likewise if EU relax rules for Ireland then they will have to do same for countries on the Eastern European border otherwise they are being biased as well.

Which would the least troublesome for EU, a border in Ireland or no borders in Eastern Europe?

BIC started to consider it once it looked like the UK would not brexit in the way that was touted pre-referendum

Should have started in 2009 when Article 50 was signed off by all EU members

Before the referendum vote in 2016 the Irish government warned about the GFA and the border. The taoiseach Enda Kenny met with David Cameron and spoke about it. Northern Ireland Secretary Theresa Villiers said that worries about the return of North-South border were unfounded and accused the stay camp of scaremongering of the worst kind. Basically the UK government ignored any concerns.
Also the EU has given NI 1.3 billion in 'peace money' to NI since 1989 to increase stability in the region. This is to be continued up to 2020 but will end after Brexit.

Which would the least troublesome for EU, a border in Ireland or no borders in Eastern Europe?

Regardless, it is the UK who is forcing circumstances that lead to the contravention of the GFA.

Should have started in 2009 when Article 50 was signed off by all EU members

Again, utter nonsense. The GFA was working well. It would make no sense to basically start accusing one of the signatories of potential bad faith.

High Court in Belfast ruled that a no deal departure by UK from EU does not breach the GFA
Bollocks
Also - you clearly don't understand the Vienna Convention.

The UK is a permanent member of the Security Council and could veto any sanctions aimed at it, as Russia did over Crimea and MH17.

The GFA was working well. It would make no sense to basically start accusing one of the signatories of potential bad faith

No need to accuse anyone. Just make a contingency plan for the worst case scenario instead of waiting till it happens.

Mystery doesn't live in the UK or the EU.

No need to accuse anyone. Just make a contingency plan for the worst case scenario instead of waiting till it happens.

While risk assessment is important, priorities don't always allow low level risks to be addressed, particularly when it is a politically sensitive one that could open a major can of worms. At the time it was very much a low level risk. The Irish assumed (wrongly as it turned out) the British would have the same level of integrity and commitment to the GFA as Ireland does and so, even if they did leave, they would do so in a GFA compliant manner.

And Cameron assumed remain would be victorious. Hence no feasibility study done before he announced in 2013 there would be a referendum.

UK only has to do it long enough for EU to make the first move and commence construction first. Suppliers of dodgy products are more likely to target NI first when they hear there is easy passage into EU via NI

Bit like trump wanting the Mexicans to build his wall for him. Regardless of who puts up the border Northern Ireland suffers. And in the meantime if Northern Ireland becomes a route for either smuggling from uk into eu or vice versa.. Northern Ireland suffers.

Commence construction? Who would be brave enough to construct anything in this region with the dissident IRA knocking about? I can tell you now I wont allow any member of my family to be anywhere near a construction project of any kind on the border. How many young men will lose their lives in the construction project?

Likewise if EU relax rules for Ireland then they will have to do same for countries on the Eastern European border otherwise they are being biased as well

Technically untrue as all citizens of Northern Ireland are entitled to be Irish citizens as well as British citizens and therefore entitled to retain and hold EU passports in the form of Irish passports. Not comparable to citizens of Russia or turkey. The Eu will effectively have citizens living in a region outside of its border, and all citizens in that region will be entitled to be EU citizens. It’s a unique situation.

Before the referendum vote in 2016 the Irish government warned about the GFA and the border. The taoiseach Enda Kenny met with David Cameron and spoke about it. Northern Ireland Secretary Theresa Villiers said that worries about the return of North-South border were unfounded and accused the stay camp of scaremongering of the worst kind. Basically the UK government ignored any concerns

This is true. Mo Mowlam was the only Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to actually care and show an interest in the place. Since then all the conservative ones have only been there to collect a salary. They have all been diabolical and some ( Karen Bradley) knew shit all about our history. The rest didn’t care.
Theresa villeiers was a Brexit MP only caring about her own constituency back home and her own personal views. It suited her to downplay the impact of Brexit on NI. Her comments on scaremongering were taken on board by people because they thought she should know all about NI as she was meant to be looking after it! She wasn’t.

Northern Ireland voters don’t get any say in who gets to be prime minister as our voting system is different. We don’t have a system to vote for conservatives, labour or Lib Dem’s. Therefore we don’t get any say in what SoS is dumped upon us by whatever prime minister that England votes for. The last 4 that I can remember have all been useless.