Westminstenders: Constitutional History

[RedToothBrush]

The Supreme Court case continues
(ruling possible Friday but likely Monday)

The new NI proposal is bollocks and Johnson didn't get why until it was discussed in Europe.

There was a press conference in Luxembourg which looks good for Johnson.

Johnsons approval ratings are up.

And we are making no obvious progress to anything but no deal...

The tim for discussion papers was two years ago,
not 11 days before the EU deadline for serious proposals that fully replace the functions of the backstop

www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/19/kier-warns-of-brexit-fallout-after-245m-loss

Kier Group, the embattled construction and services company, has warned of flat revenues this year due to Brexit uncertainty as it crashed to a £245m annual loss.
.....
Kier announced in June it was cutting 1,200 jobs in the UK from its 19,000-employee workforce – 650 this year – to help trim debts

I agree BigChoc. Just to add though, that the "backstop" wasn't a known "problem" 2 years ago. It has been a concrete, problem since January this year, i.e. when the first vote didn't pass. Still plenty of time to have either secured the votes or developed a much better worked up alternative, but not 2 years.

I watched the end of the Supreme Court hearing this afternoon on silent with subtitles and in my head started to give them all Corrie voices, @Belindabelle

Lord Pannick = Norris (thank you!)
Lady Hale = Mavis

Boos are normal politics, but no need for "traitor"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/sep/19/brexit-news-latest-supreme-court-john-major-tells-supreme-court-it-would-be-naive-to-believe-boris-johnsons-prorogation-claims-live-news

Gina Miller left the supreme court to cheers and boos from the large crowd waiting outside the court building.
As the Press Association reports, a small group of pro-Brexit protesters shouted “shame on you” and “traitor” as she got into a waiting car.

The backstop plan was agreed by UK-EU negotiators and formed part of Theresa May's withdrawal agreement in November 2018 (often referred to as the Brexit "divorce deal"). It sparked a backlash from many Conservative MPs (and the DUP) at Westminster and several of her own ministers resigned in protest

Source: BBC.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-44615404

So I think it's fairly likely @LouiseCollins28 that Theresa May's team knew all about the backstop quite a long time ago. Possibly a very long time ago, if it didn't get worked up into a final document till late in 2018.

louise The backstop has been a known political / Tory problem since at least late 2017

Remember Arlene's phonecall to May stopping the original backstop, back in December 2017
There were mighty tussles in the negotiations for the previous couple of months even to get to that stage

I agree actually generally that the specific language is "inappropriate", at best, but the folks heckling Boris Johnson with "Stop the Coup" should be held to the same standards then surely? I remember no adverse comment on here about this.

One could make the argument that Gina Miller is simply a private citizen, but I think that's on shaky ground now she's so identified with the campaign.

FWIW, I couldn't possibly hope to make a sound judgement as to whether prorogation is "justiciable." Great, great word tho! I do think that prorogation should not have happened and Parliament should be sitting. I await the judgement with interest.

It hasn't always been called a backstop, but the NI border issue was one of the 3 requirements the EU laid down as soon as negotiations started in June 2017:

Ni, expat rights, exit bill
The most prominant 3 bits of the WA, you'll notice.

And of course, Remainers were warning of the difficulty the NI border / GFA would cause for Brexit, but Leavers dismissed the while issue as Project Fear

Refusing to listen when repeatedly warned of a problem /= unaware of the problem

Agree that backstop has been known as an issue for longer than that. Sorry maybe I wasn't clear, I was suggesting it only became "concrete" as a problem when it so clearly prevented "Deal" passing at the first attempt and that was Jan this year.

Agree also that it should have been sorted way before now, and I had forgotten the TM Arlene showdown.

Thanks, @BigChocFrenzy

Louise BJ is the PM
It is impossible for a private citizen, or even an Opposition party, to suspend Parliament, or do anything else of that order of magnitude

Miller is only bringing a court case, which anyone in the country can do

There is a court case ongoing from the (extreme Brexity) English Democrats - which they lost in UK courts and are appealing to the ECJ !
They are claiming that the UK should legally have left on 31 March and that all extensions are illegal acts by the govt

I don't regard them as traitors, just silly

If the protestors had yelled "silly-billy" at Miller, I'd regard that as perfectly legitimate
and what I would yell at the ED, if I could ever be arsed to attend their court hearings.

Has someone already posted this?

It's s tweet linking to an excerpt of Rory (the Tory) Stewart talking about Brexit & the power of the centre (& the complete war we're in at the moment).

I think you'll find it really interesting.

twitter.com/caldbec1/status/1174434231893860352?s=21

#MoggLive: “It is human to err, it is divine to forgive & the Prime Minister is very close to being divine I think"

I saw this as well, yesterday, and my reaction was....What is his family parish going to tell him next time he goes to mass (with his 6 kids, of course, and nanny)? I would seriously tell him off!!

A basic problem is that the Tory party are a minority govt attempting to carry out a momentous change,
which only half the country approve of - and many of them don't want to do it the way the Tories plan, i.e. No Deal

Any minority govt would have problems getting its policies through, so would normally avoid the most contentious parts of its manifeso and / or form alliances
like Cameron did in 2010 with the LDems.

The Tory / DUP alliance was always v unstable:
It gave only a very small majority
and was always very uneasy, because they were so mis-matched

• they wanted very different things from Brexit:

The Tories wanted to move the UK onto a new track wrt workers rights, business rules / "red tape" welfare state etc
whereas
the DUP wanted to smash the GFA and stop the currently inexorable trend towards Irish Reunification in a generation or two

Thanks for linking that, theCat
Excellent talk by Rory, interesting ideas he usually has
I think he's highlighted a big part of the problem:

the fact that the 2 sides in the UK are so polarised and don't want to compromise with the others at all
Neither are interested in finding something that could work for most folk; they just keep trying to win all the marbles.

Yes.

It's like a game of poker, with all of us as the stake. ☹️

I'm a Catholic (a rubbish lapsed one) from the North of England. I actually don't recognise what sort of Catholic Mogg is. No one, not even the freaky hardcore ones that I've met would ever talk about another person like that.

Oh dear, what's the Moggster said now?

The Rebel Alliance should be thinking how they will use the opportunity if Parliament resumes, say next week sometime
Currently, nothing scheduled before 14 October !

Tony Grew@ayestotheright

Interesting.
What will MPs debate if the Commons is “recalled” on Monday?

There is no order paper.
After prorogation there is a Queen’s Speech.

No motions or questions can be tabled during prorogation.
There is literally no business for the Commons to do

*#MoggLive: 'It is human to err, it is divine to forgive'.
Well, yes...
But, surely, JRM either means that BJ is currently showing exemplary forgiveness to someone/thing (if he is, it's unclear to me)
or he is actually comparing BJ himself to the Divine, which would be a most odd thing for him to do, if he takes his faith at all seriously?

The principle is so very important:
that a PM should not be allowed to shut down Parliament to stop its Opposition
that this not become a precedent in future years for someone much more dangerous - & competent at it - than BJ

..... but then the Opposition must get on with Opposing, or it will look Much Ado About Nothing

But at least the Select Committees can resume sitting officially again and question the Government about its preparations, holding it formally to account.

I suppose it depends what has gone on during prorogation as to what they'll decide to do. The silence makes me think something is afoot, I'm just not sure what!

Which party's conference is next?

It is he final bit of JRM's statement that is batshit:

“It is human to err, it is divine to forgive & the Prime Minister is very close to being divine I think"