Is a third extension likely?

[CloudyVanilla]

Read a couple of articles this morning including Gordon Brown saying the EU can offer another extension.

Is anyone with more expertise on the subject able to say if this looks at all likely despite BJ’s “31/10 do or die”?

I really hope so!

I think the EU would give us one. I also think that BlowJob with his bluster thinks that they will negotiate. I don't think they will, so we will then crash out, even though it's probably not what BlowJob really wants.

Extensions have to be agreed by both EU and UK. No deal is not the most desirable outcome, but does prolongation of uncertainty help?

The NI only backstop was a way out, but rejected by the DUPers and the ERGers.

I think that the EU realise that a lot of what is said in the UK is for UK consumption. There may be people having grown up discussions with the EU as we speak. I think if the new PM went to the EU without the red lines of the previous PM, and with the clear goal of reaching a as mutually beneficial agreement as possible, then an extension could be granted.

Although how Johnson will be able to square the circle of his continuing jingoistic rhetoric and negotiating a new WA will be interesting to watch.

I think the EU will only agree to another extension if there is a substantial reason. So a new referendum, a GE, movement on UK red lines, some sort of realistic alternative to the backstop.

Preparations for a no deal brexit are very advanced in Ireland and the rest of the EU, bar the UK. The UK seems least prepared, which is a bit ironic really.

There may be people having grown up discussions with the EU as we speak.

I don't know @frumpety. There have been repeated statements from the EU and from Irish politicians that they are willing to listen to any suggested alternatives to the backstop, provided they are realistic and implementable but that nothing has been forthcoming.

I did read an article in the Irish Times recently about the special economic zones the UK has suggested setting up to facilitate the car industry and other badly affected industries. It was saying the DUP had no objections to those so packaging something similar for NI might work as it's keeping NI similar to other areas of the UK. It's a total fudge and I can't really see it being acceptable to the DUP. They're always perfectly willing to cut their noses off to spite their faces. They do intransigence like nobody else.