Won't the Republic of Ireland be utterly fucked by a No Deal Brexit and the EU needs to protect its member state?

[thedaisychain]

It's just occurred to me... the Republic of Ireland will be so fucked from a No Deal brexit because the overwhelming vast majority of its trade is with Northern Ireland.

That's not to say Northern Ireland won't be fucked too, but much less so because it can still trade domestically with the rest of the UK. But the Republic?? Geography dictates that it will be pretty fucked. It will have no land or sea border with the EU. Why would Germany all of a sudden import beef from the Republic than France (as an example!! No idea if Germany has a need to import meat.)

So... given the Republic is a member state of the EU, and isn't it the duty of the EU to fight tooth and nail for member states, why aren't they just agreeing to a free trade deal (thus requiring no border on the island of Ireland).

Am I missing something? What am I missing here?

The UK is in a very weak position negotiation wise...because there isn't a clearly articulated political vision by your leaders

Very true. Also Just another reality the BeLeavers refuse to see.

A no-deal Brexit doesn't only harm the ROI it also will cost, according to some economists, 1.5m jobs in Europe and 500k in the UK, even if those figures are only 50% accurate, its still a big hit for all of us.

In many ways Brexit is not only economic madness for the UK, it is an act of economic war on the EU.... i'm amazed they are so serene about it but you can bet their populations won't be.

I really do not see that a border in the Irish solves anything at all, it just creates a whole new set of problems further down the line, not least UK firms relocating to NI and Scotland wanting the same advantages and demanding indy 2.

@jasjas1973 - I really do not see that a border in the Irish solves anything at all

The only thing a border in the Irish Sea would solve is the integrity of the GFA. Economically, things would be better in NI than with no backstop but it will still be detrimental to them. It will also be detrimental to Ireland.

The best sort of brexit for Ireland would be a UK wide backstop but that isn't looking very likely.

Read Mark Steel’s piece in the Independent today.

@DioneTheDiabolist I don't know why you posted that to me (twice). Your quote wasn't a quote from me. I'm on Ireland's side in this mess.

Sorry @Mistigri.
My comments should have been directed to @MysteryTripAgain.

In many ways Brexit is not only economic madness for the UK

UK has has a trade deficit of GBP 64 Billion with EU since 1999.

Germany has a trade surplus of Euro 160 Billion with EU

UK has a trade surplus of GBP 44 Billion with non EU countries over the same period.

Based on those facts is it not easy to work out why UK wants to leave the EU?

Based on those facts is it not easy to work out why UK wants to leave the EU?

Nothing to stop the UK from selling more worldwide or making more here for the home is there? i'll give you an example... cycling has seen a boom across uk/europe over the last 15 years or so, yet bikes, indoor trainers, equipment and clothing are all dominated by european or US companies....many new startups, we import it all.

Germany seems to export far more across the globe & we also have a weak currency.... has made little difference other than to make UK companies cheaper for foreign investors to take over, the latest is Cobham, a uk company that has sensitive defence contracts with the MOD.

Brexit means we lose the eu FTAs which cover much of the G20 nations and considering the protectionist nature of both the USA and China, not really sure how you think we can suddenly penetrate those markets in manufactured goods or services?
There is also the danger that EU based companies will move from the UK, Car manufacturing & Airbus in particular.

Sadly I think the shift from manufacturing to services has contributed to UK's deficit. Many things UK now imports used to be made in UK. Cars is a good example.

Yes but it also negates the reasons to leave the EU you gave.

The cars made in the uk, like its motorbikes were rubbish, no RnD and shite management, a Triumph m/c made in the 60s was pretty much the same bike that was made in the 30s.

Manufacturing is also exposed to global trends more than services.

What many people don’t realise is that once the skills are gone, they’re gone, and it’s very expensive and very difficult to build up a base again. In production, in engineering, in construction, there’s already a massive shortage of British skills. There’s no appetite in young people, there’s no school that brings people into the trade, or definitely nothing remotely comparable to the continent where vocational high schools churn out competent technicians in w variety of fields with highly employable skills.
The only thing that Britain seems to be doing competitively is finance/insurance, and project management of stuff made by others. So in my mind the main market worth keeping is services. Unfortunately that means London and the south east. And I still don’t understand what the plan for that is....

Yes but it also negates the reasons to leave the EU you gave

Leave the current terms of trade with EU would have been better wording. Even after Brexit it is the UK's intention to trade with EU, just on different terms. Whether or not UK can obtain more favourable terms remains to be seen of course.

Putting most of your eggs in services also has a risk as much easier to relocate elsewhere. Other than office space what else is needed?

OP is from Czech republic. I hope I've spelled that right!

Interestingly David McWilliams compares Wales with Montenegro, Northern Ireland with Bosnia, Scotland with Serbia and England with Slovenia. He doesn't predict violence in mainland UK but he does predict the United Kingdom breaking up. Listened to his podcast and found it interesting and then an Al Jazeera clip popped up, same prediction. What do you think of these comparisons op being from the Czech republic? Alarmist? or do you feel the comparisons with the identities of the nations are valid? @thedaisychain

The thing is though is that the EU have as one of their core tenets that they can't do a deal with a third country (non EU member) that is better than their internal terms.

Perhaps, but that boat has sailed, look how long it took Hyundai to make decent cars? 100s of billions poured into their RnD

Or the Microsoft /Nokia failure breaking into the 'phone market?

We can produce some things but it will be niche.

You are right about services, its relatively easy to relocate a bank etc to Dublin or Paris and Brexit provides the impetus to do so.... once again leavers are helping to ruin the country.

Even after Brexit it is the UK's intention to trade with EU, just on different terms. Whether or not UK can obtain more favourable terms remains to be seen of course.
Do you really think the EU will grant a non member better terms than members? Where are you getting this from @MysteryTripAgain? Is it the same place that had you thinking NI paramilitaries were Remainers?

But you can't get a better deal than you have as a member. That's the whole point of the EU in the first place? Surely everyone understands that?
The only possible "advantage" is the ability to make your own international trading relationships. But would they be better than the ones negotiated by the EU for its members? It seems doubtful.

Doesn't seem to matter much anymore. UK is down to the wire now.

So it is either a No Deal Disaster for UK and as a consequence the same for many of its neighbours (which is totally not nice either), or an acknowledgment that the backstop MUST be a feature.

That's my view, so what do you think will happen?

To me it is that black and white really.

Unless the UK is being run by Arlene and the ERG. Which is the reality I suppose.

What a total and unforgiveable hubristic mess.

A Leaver on one of these threads insisted that the EU should give same trade deal terms even with UK outside EU because it would benefit the EU. Actually, they are right. And UK can give back to the EU the exact same benefits that EU has now from UK. Because that would most benefit the UK, too.

This situation is called Remain or Revoke so I can go with that.

Me too :-)