Won't the Republic of Ireland be utterly fucked by a No Deal Brexit and the EU needs to protect its member state?

[thedaisychain]

It's just occurred to me... the Republic of Ireland will be so fucked from a No Deal brexit because the overwhelming vast majority of its trade is with Northern Ireland.

That's not to say Northern Ireland won't be fucked too, but much less so because it can still trade domestically with the rest of the UK. But the Republic?? Geography dictates that it will be pretty fucked. It will have no land or sea border with the EU. Why would Germany all of a sudden import beef from the Republic than France (as an example!! No idea if Germany has a need to import meat.)

So... given the Republic is a member state of the EU, and isn't it the duty of the EU to fight tooth and nail for member states, why aren't they just agreeing to a free trade deal (thus requiring no border on the island of Ireland).

Am I missing something? What am I missing here?

@WillLokireturn - why can't we sort it out with ROI and NI? There is certainly willing

Willingness "to sort it out" is the one thing that seems to be missing in the UK.

Won't the Republic of Ireland be utterly fucked by a No Deal Brexit and the EU needs to protect its member state?

No OP, the RoI will only be somewhat fucked in the short term following a No Deal Brexit. In the long term it will be fine because it will benefit from being membership, partnership and protection of the EU.

The UK will be utterly fucked following a No Deal Brexit and Northern Ireland will be fucked harder than anywhere else.

@Amara123

basically from here it looks like your politicians are a bunch of lying untrustworthy low ability numpties who use the sides of buses to have complex debates about the future of your country. You don't know who you are, what you want or where you want to go as a country so it's impossible to broker any kind of deal with you

... you win the prize for " best summary of the current state of Brexit in 2 sentences" award - Well done!!

EU will not give non-member state as good a trade deal as member states get.

Doesn't really make sense not to as any tarrifs it imposes on goods will be the same imposed on it.

Uhm NI is not an independent EU state. It’s part of the UK and voted to remain.

No its part of the UK therefore voted to leave. The UK voted to leave even if votes to remain were higher in some member states than others.

I think it's good to see a thread discussing basic Brexit factors. Someone recommended David McWilliams' articles. I'd suggest searching for Fintan O'Toole and Brexit. He's followed this from the beginning and has an accessible take on it.

Here's his scathing take on Boris Johnson:

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/25/boris-johnson-bluffing-stage-managed

Op, if you are Czech person in London, as you claim, you have a vested interest in Brexit going well rather than chaotically. You therefore have a vested interest. If you have a vested interest and it would appear a good command of English , how on Earth have you not spotted this until now. By creating this ridiculous thread and "acting" all surprised, you are little different to the posters we often have to endure from the Far East and Australia who love stirring up other posters' ire by saying hardline Brexiteer nonsense that has little or nothing to do with them.
This has something to do with you by virtue of the fact you are, or claim to be, an EU citizen living in a country about to leave the EU.
Don't you think we know this? Don't you think we've been discussing it at length on here since before 2016?

By the way: NI to be a special economic zone and a border in the sea. There, solved it for you.

This is the single thing that upsets me most about what we've become. And every time I see Nigel Farage or Boris Johnson saying something about how Ireland could leave the EU and join with us in some arrangement I cringe at how this will be taken on the other side of the Irish Sea. And Priti Patel saying we could use food shortages as a bargaining tool leaves me lost for words.

We colonised Ireland for 800 years. They put up with massacres (Oliver Cromwell is especially hated still), skullcapping (in the rebellion of the early 1800s), and other brutality in their fight to free themselves. And the worst thing we did was make the potato famine worse by not changing the corn laws. 1 million died, 3 million emigrated, the population halved and the country has never been the same since.

I know loads of people reading this will know it, but the only conclusion I can reach after the last three years is far too many people don't. Nor do people realise the way we're seen abroad about this. If the GFA breaks down, the blame will be put squarely at our feet.

Unfortunately when the new generation IRA bombers return to the streets of mainland Uk towns and cities your naïveté will come back to haunt you

On the assumption that there are not more than 17.4 Million IRA persons who voted remain, the above post does not help at all. Sounds very like saying;

"if the minority don't get what they want, the minority will resort to violence to force the majority from not receiving what they voted for"

3,500+ persons lost their lives in the troubles period, but it did not result in the reunification of the island of Ireland. Nobody wants to see a return to troubles.

As for the backstop, Norway arrangement is my suggestion.

No I disagree. I am old enough to remember the troubles and lived in uk for some of the time. I felt so embarrased of the IRA.

If the troubles reoccur, my anger and frustration will be at the UK 's (i use the term loosely) leaders.

As for the backstop, Norway arrangement is my suggestion.

Norway has a hard (customs) border with the EU.

Belinsurge they were offered the first half of that and turned it down !

Good article from fintan otoole 25/7

@31RueCambon , who's "they" in this context.

OH follows twitter. A lot. Said German press tongue in cheek proposing that the US should seek to buy England (instead of Greenland). Then Scotland and NI, maybe even Wales, could stay in the EU. You needn't worry about ROI then as it would still have a land border, and possibly sea border, with another EU member. Do you think that is a plan?

If only Ireland was a member state in it's own right and had representation and a voice at EU Council, Commission and Parliament. Then it could declare what was in it's own interests. If only...

Firstly apologies for my rant last night, I am extremely worried about Brexit.

But I'd like to return to one of the points I made. The UK is in a very weak position negotiation wise. Not because of remainers, not because of Brexiteers, but because there isn't a clearly articulated political vision by your leaders. Brexit as a concept is still so vague that it means that every country negotiating with you has no idea if you are able to get these agreements over the line domestically.
Remainers worry because it's the great unknown, Brexiteers worry that their personal version of Brexit won't get passed. It's a losing position.

In Ireland we have to have referenda to make changes to our Constitution, but we know their limitations for things that involve widespread societal change. So we are using citizens assemblies. I think you need to use the same kind of process to reunite your citizens or else you will build trouble for generations.

Please everyone on this thread consider reading this

truestoryaward.org/story/51?fbclid=IwAR2XnBY_lnyXnal5zAjOxJLAEoYxHB6-ItpTpSQOwz8Forrr3AcCtXb-aM8

@WillLokireturn

I think I’d take you more seriously if you didn’t describe people as “remoaners”. Or spell it “ecominics”.

On the assumption that there are not more than 17.4 Million IRA persons who voted remain

What are “IRA persons”?

"worries about economic instability and movement to far right in numerous EU countries politics and fat EU politicians."

When leavers state that the perceived obesity of EU politicians led them to vote for Brexit, I despair.

amara the story you posted is very good. Thanks

Guys ye are stuck.
Remainers need to realise that something was going very wrong for a lot of people in your country for them to vote for something so radical and uncertain.
Brexiteers need to realise that voting against the status quo for something so I'll defined is going to trigger anxiety in those whose lives are ok or good at the moment.
The politicians are spending all their time at the moment talking about worst case scenarios, either rubbishing them or describing them as a consequence.
Someone needs to step up and elicit the views of the electorate and create a tangible direction that most of you can live with.
Brexiteers, this will be a very hollow "victory" unless you can bring the remainers along. Otherwise you are going to have "told you so's " everytime something goes wrong.
Lots of people mention the Blitz spirit. But the good stuff you gained as a country wasn't from the destruction, but from the way you came together after to create visions for the NHS. You don't need destruction to get to this place of thinking.

OP, there’s a fantastic opportunity to educate yourself courtesy of the Financial Times today-

amp.ft.com/content/eaae31b2-c004-11e9-9381-78bab8a70848?__twitter_impression=true

Ireland is the UK’s 5th largest export market, the UK exports more to Ireland than it does to China, and Irish firms in the UK employ more people than UK firms do in Ireland.

Great closing line-
“We understand the yearning for sovereignty, identity and independence, believe me. But just one piece of advice: the first 70 years are the hardest, after that it gets easier”

*On the assumption that there are not more than 17.4 Million IRA persons who voted remain, the above post does not help at all. Sounds very like saying; "if the minority don't get what they want, the minority will resort to violence to force the majority from not receiving what they voted for"

If that's what it sounds like to you @Mistigri you're either not listening or not paying attention. The loyalist paramilitaries mostly voted Leave as per their DUP affiliates and the anti-GFA nationalists also voted Leave to force a border poll.

Why do you insist on spouting bollocks about NI when you obviously haven't a clue about the place?

On the assumption that there are not more than 17.4 Million IRA persons who voted remain, the above post does not help at all. Sounds very like saying; "if the minority don't get what they want, the minority will resort to violence to force the majority from not receiving what they voted for"

If that's what it sounds like to you@Mistigriyou're either not listening or not paying attention. The loyalist paramilitaries mostly voted Leave as per their DUP affiliates and the anti-GFA nationalists also voted Leave to force a border poll.

Why do you insist on spouting bollocks about NI when you obviously haven't a clue about the place?