Westministenders: A New Approach? No chance.

[RedToothBrush]

Next week we will have a new PM. He will be called Boris Johnson unless something very odd has happened.

His first 72 hours will be 'interesting' especially if today's events are anything to go by.

His Cabinet is sure to be a horror show. It was noticable who abstained today - they don't think they will be in a Johnson Cabinet and clearly don't want to be.

To move forward Johnson must be able to survive a rebellion and a Queen's speech before now and 31st October.

And be able to unit his party in order to find a way forward.

And whilst parliament has voted to block proroguing parliament, it could still be dissolved if there is a vote of no confidence.

And what happens if Johnson loses a vote? Will he manage to become PM? Will there be a GE.

All the signs are that next week is going to be a hell of a ride.

Enjoy your weekend.

Bellinicat has just watched Captain Marvel and is pleased we now finally see that cats have an answer for everything.

Tories seem to be picking up more following from the BP, probably in advance of what voters think will be a glorious BJ leadership.

Thinking objectively, I wonder if the worst possible result for BXP is a BJ PM. Because for better for worse, I'd cast BJ as totally "Farage Proof". Viewed through a glass darkly, getting BJ as Tory leader does look like a Tory masterstroke.

Pursuing that idea, for a moment leads to the conclusion that BJ might not need to do any deal with BXP in the event of an election. BJ is the Tory answer to "Nigel Farage" ...

Again, wargaming all of that means that if BJ can steal or neutralise the Farage thunder, we could be in for a very interesting ride.

If I were in the BXP, I wouldn't be looking forwards to a BJ Premiership. Mind you, if I were in the BXP I wouldn't have the brains to realise that.

re Postal votes, I don't know why more people haven't got them. I started working in polling stations at 18 and applied then, and even though I don't work on the elections any more I always request them.

We had a whole discussion on these threads a while back ... personally I'm not a big fan of postal voting and would much rather the default was in person voting. There have been too many suggestions that certain cultures insist "the man of the house" does all the voting - which isn't possible if you have to attend in person.

There were loads of whines about edge cases, but I still stand by that. I think having to show your face once every 4 years or so to vote is possibly the least onerous duty in being a UK citizen I can think of - apart from maybe filling in a form once every 10 years. Jury duty is 2 weeks FFS. Or maybe we should take a leaf out of all the people wo claim postal voting is essential, and have postal juries ?

At the very least, I would like to see some sort of threshold above which the %age of postal votes cast causes some sort of oversight.

I write this as someone whose DW uses a wheelchair and who has always turned up to vote in person.

{and have postal juries ?}

Far too expensive.
Have a show on TV where you present the 'accused' and put forward the pros and cons then have an online SMS vote. Nothing could possibly go wrong.
It works for Love Island.

pmk

Good opinion piece in the Irish Times today - on Johnson’s casual racism that hasn’t gone unnoticed in Europe and his supplication (oh the irony) to a capricious Trump:

www.irishtimes.com/opinion/boris-johnson-on-varadkar-why-isn-t-he-called-murphy-like-all-the-rest-of-them-1.3960638?mode=amp

Pursuing that idea, for a moment leads to the conclusion that BJ might not need to do any deal with BXP in the event of an election. BJ is the Tory answer to "Nigel Farage" ...

And that’s exactly why BJ is supported by so many MPs who can’t stand him! Pure politics.

ContinuityError
Just 'ouch!'.
I presume some in the UK are looking forward to the the 54th state of the USA. That is 50 as now, then maybe a couple of rocks in the sea somewhere with penguins on it, yet to be named, then lastly the UK.

The UK parliament's Committee on Exiting the European Union says:

"A no-deal Brexit, with no GATT XXIV agreement, would be at best a foolhardy gamble and at worst, lead to severe disruption, and it is neither desirable nor sustainable as an end state for our economic relations with the EU."

"This clear evidence reinforces our previous conclusion that a 'managed no-deal' cannot constitute the policy of any responsible government."

More here - www.rte.ie/news/2019/0719/1063957-uk-jobs-and-livelihoods-at-risk-with-no-deal-brexit/

Once again, women being shat on as we "progress" into the 21st century.

www.theregister.co.uk/2019/07/19/bt_staff_on_maternity_leave_could_be_disproportionately_hit_by_car_allowance_change/

A number of female staff at BT that take maternity leave could be disproportionately affected by plans to remove car allowances from certain employees.

Under BT's People Framework, which includes a shake-up of pay and grading structures, some members of staff will no longer be eligible for car allowance as their job titles are changed and moved to different bands. Instead, affected staff will have 85 per cent of the car allowance added to their annual pay.

But because the car allowance is now bundled in with the salary, women on maternity leave will not receive the full 85 per cent once they drop down to statutory maternity pay of £145.18 per week (people on maternity or paternity leave after their children are born receive either £145.18 a week, or 90 per cent of their average weekly earnings – whichever is lower). Prior to the proposed changes, employees received their full car allowance throughout maternity leave.

(contd)

Every eligible voter should vote in every election.
Even long distance commuters expect their bins to be emptied and their street lights to work.

Would love to see Farage and BoJo against each other in an interview. They haven't had that yet as they are meant to be on the same 'side' so it could be something for the future once BoJo is our PM. I see wide mouthed tree frog saying "but that isn't what you are doing is it? You promised the people you would leave with No Deal come what may. Now you are talking about a trade deal with the EU which frankly no one wants. You are betraying the people!" and BoJo saying "With all due respect Mr Fromage, sorry, Fartage, oh no! How embarrassing...you have a German passport which I don't think people voted for either. Anyway Aristotle once said..." . He could perhaps be the step down many leavers have been waiting for if he can disarm NF.

Good point *

Oops - posted by accident. Let's try again

Good point ListeningQuietly

1tisI strangely in these dystopian times Love Island has a more direct impact on a winner than the public have of choosing our next PM. It is also mildly more entertaining than the 'race'.

Every eligible voter should vote in every election.

A trip to a polling booth known about months (if not years) in advance is hardly the most onerous thing expected of a citizen. Especially since we are within living memory of a time when all men had to spend two years doing National Service as part of their civic duty.

I'm sure we could fill the rest of the thread and beyond will all sorts of edge cases and special pleadings from people whose situation marks them out as being in a 0.00001% of something somewhere.

Maybe if we changed the name from "voting" to "Identity confirmation" ? So you are required, once every few years to actually rock up in person at your polling Identity Confirmation Station and present yourself for confirmation - heck, while you're there, you could also vote. Just a thought.

Generally I am opposed to ID cards, and all the other paraphanalia of the authoritarian state. But I'm also opposed to loosening voting requirements which by definition will increase the scope for abuse. I want to trust my electoral system, not be forever wondering if that 10-vote majority was bought by a couple of gerrymandered households adhering to a distinctly coercive masculine culture.

We've had this discussion before, and I am well aware that I'm the weirdo and most people would be happy with a drive by show of hands if it made things easier. But I'm nothing if not stubborn ....

I feel like we need a facepalm emoji for Javid as he praises Farage and says it is not helpful to "see danger when it is not there" . Then you remember this is the man who walked into the Tories and has sat through (and encouraged) all of the islamophobia without realising he is in the Lion's mouth acting like a toothpick.

They should have put a stake through his heart !
That's back in 2003 when IDS was turfed out as leader after failing dismally

Now he'll help BJ fail dismally too (little help needed for that)

www.thesun.co.uk/news/9537524/boris-johnson-brexit-iain-duncan-smith-deputy-pm/

Senior Tory Eurosceptics are pushing Boris Johnson to make Iain Duncan-Smith 🤮 his deputy PM 🤮 to ensure he doesn’t waver on his Brexit pledges.
...
If Boris gets into No10 next week as most expect, it has emerged that as many as 12 Cabinet ministers will resign or be fired by him - the biggest clear out in nine years.
.....
“It will therefore be essential to have a wise head like Iain’s 😂😂🤦🏻‍♀️ who knows his way around Government alongside him to hold the line from day one.”

The more expectations piled on Boris, the less he can meet any of them. Which is actually a silver lining here

Someone, somewhere is going to be pissed off - and that's just in the pro-Boris camp ....

BCF that makes it sound as if BoJo might get lost on campus
I wonder what role Hunt will get. I think they realise they need someone who will actually do some work in slot 2 and no one else wants to risk it - IDS, akin to IBS has had his best days and is ready to be flushed.

Sorry, feeling metaphorical this afternoon, clearly!

I'm with the wierdo DG on this
I am against allowing postal votes except for registered disabled - and only then where their disability renders ti difficult to vote in person
If you are away on business, tough.

Too many women - not just ethnic monorities - have been disenfranchised by the male head of family taking over the postal votes

And too easy for fraud, which favours those with the money & intent

• as we've seen, in our winner-takes-all system, it only needs to happen once, to affect a narrow decision and maybe change the direction of the country for decades

A trip to a polling booth known about months (if not years) in advance is hardly the most onerous thing expected of a citizen.

Then you have to make it possible for people to vote in person, for example by holding elections at the weekend and not on a working day, having more polling stations and ensuring they are accessible.

I have colleagues who were essentially disenfranchised in the referendum by Britain's creaking railway system. Cancelled or delayed trains meant they were not home in time to vote.

But a wider issue is that making it harder to vote generally tends to disproportionately hit low wage, minority voters. As such, it is often politically motivated and explicitly intended to disenfranchise particular groups of voters.

I am against allowing postal votes except for registered disabled - and only then where their disability renders ti difficult to vote in person If you are away on business, tough.

hang on - I didn't say I'd ban postal votes. But they should be a lot harder to arrange, and subject to much stricter scrutiny.

This is exactly what derailed the discussion last time, as quite a few Posters Of Restricted Intelligence immediately equated "stricter scrutiny" with "banning". Although, as I said, DW happily wheels up to put her "X" in the box - taking advantage of step-free access and lowered booths ....

Then you have to make it possible for people to vote in person, for example by holding elections at the weekend and not on a working day, having more polling stations and ensuring they are accessible.

right on cue ...

I refuse to accept a false dichotomy where we have to put up with an untrustworthy electoral system in order to make it inclusive.

Not quite sure why Thursday is a sacred day for elections anyway. I guess it's a case of if the US does it, the UK must ...

I'm in favour of weekend elections.

Here we have Sunday voting, no postal vote, but proxy voting is possible.

It isn't right that an employer can effective disenfranchise employees by requiring them to be absent on a voting day - employers can't prevent employees performing other civic duties (such as jury service) and shouldn't be able to prevent them voting. So you need proxy votes if postal votes aren't allowed.

You also need some mechanism by which, for example, hospital patients can vote.