Westministenders: A New Approach? No chance.

[RedToothBrush]

Next week we will have a new PM. He will be called Boris Johnson unless something very odd has happened.

His first 72 hours will be 'interesting' especially if today's events are anything to go by.

His Cabinet is sure to be a horror show. It was noticable who abstained today - they don't think they will be in a Johnson Cabinet and clearly don't want to be.

To move forward Johnson must be able to survive a rebellion and a Queen's speech before now and 31st October.

And be able to unit his party in order to find a way forward.

And whilst parliament has voted to block proroguing parliament, it could still be dissolved if there is a vote of no confidence.

And what happens if Johnson loses a vote? Will he manage to become PM? Will there be a GE.

All the signs are that next week is going to be a hell of a ride.

Enjoy your weekend.

The 'give the new party leader and PM by default 12 months grace' must surely only be Tory party specific mustnt it?

I mean if JC (other party leaders are sometimes available) wanted to call a vote of no confidence in the PM he couldnt be prevented from doing it because of not being nasty to the new boy - could he??

@yolofish, I think that's the case, yes. They can only stop other Tories being 'mean', not Parliament as a whole.

mistigri yes, surprisingly my mum hates him too.

Sympathy to Fluffy , that’s a difficult thing to handle.

NoWordForFluffy

I think we may be twins separated at birth. Or our mothers are twins. Or something.

Does your DM also have a barely disguised hatred of Philip Hammond? A lifelong subscription to the Torygraph? A compulsive need to write long rambling letters to the NHS / HMRC / local Council / MP about random and irrational things?

BJ makes my skin crawl. How anyone finds him remotely attractive or charismatic is beyond me. Bleurgh.

Nothing has magic powers
Having ID cards has more advantages than disadvantages, imo
for the individual, as well as the state

The problem with the Labour proposal was that it demanded too much data and set a ridiculously high price to obtain

It should be a basic card, costing max 15 quid to the individual, comparable to what most EU members have.

It could be used e.g.
for access to the NHS, rather than the current chaotic system of just questioning hospital patients with brown skin, "foreign" features or accent
for voting ID
as ID for collecting parcels, for jobs, rental agreements etc

Steven Swinford
@Steven_Swinford
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Gerard Lyons, former adviser to Boris Johnson and prominent Brexiteer, has been interviewed for role of Governor of the Bank of England
He has argued that no deal may be only viable option for leaving the EU
Boris Johnson will pick next Governor if he becomes PM

Ian Dunt: reflecting on fascism

https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/07/19/week-in-review-something-grim-rises-from-trump-s-rally

There is no fixed definition, because fascism was never a unified intellectual project.
It never really meant anything coherent. It shifted and spasmed, trying to fit the available political space.

Under early Mussolini it contained futurist intellectuals, syndicalist pro-war socialists and violent nationalists.
By the time he reached power it had dropped any left-wing pretensions and become a thug enforcement militia for large landowners.

Hitler's Nazi party also talked a good game of wanting to challenge global capitalism, but did nothing to change property arrangements in power, except for confiscating it from the groups it wanted to kill.

All the other major political ideologies come from the great intellectual traditions of the 18th and 19th Century - conservativism's Edmund Burke, liberalism's John Stuart Mill, socialism's Karl Marx.

You could have put those three men in a room together and they would have had a conversation.

Who is there for fascism? No-one.
Who the hell was going to have a debate with Mussolini or Hitler?
No-one, unless they wanted to get shot.

It was pure anti-intellectualism.
As one fascist militant from the 1920s said: "The fist is the synthesis of our theory."
....
That's why there is no fascist definition, because it is too lacking in substance to properly pin down.
There's just a collection of instincts.

Robert O.Paxton, in his brilliant Anatomy of Fascism, did his best to elaborate on them.
They include an obsession with national decline, combined with a pronounced sense of victimhood,^
the blame for which is pinned on a designated minority,

in which a party or group of activists demonstrate their purity and patriotism by rejecting standard democratic and liberal legal safeguards, in collaboration with a traditional elite.

My MIL a lifelong Tory has no time for bj. In fact she has currently has no time for any of them currently. She is starting to worry about her savings and the NHS.
She would never vote Labour but has started voting Lib Dem.

A little late but re weekend voting - when doctors started offering weekend surgeries there wasn’t much uptake, even though people said they would welcome them. I can just hear some of my acquaintances saying “And now they want us to vote at weekends! Weekends are for having fun and going shopping at IKEA! They’re all lying bastards anyway, only in it for themselves, I’m not giving up my leisure time to vote for any of them.” And so turnout doesn’t increase, rather falls because of the inbuilt resentment factor and the pleasure of sticking it to them. IMO someone who doesn’t bother to vote on a Thursday is even less likely to vote at the weekend.
Catching a train at about 8:30, will prob be in Green Park about 11 having got Tube from Paddington,, will try to find trusty red toothbrush and display it discreetly on my person.

Pondering whether the plan is to have us declare war on Iran instead of Brexiting after we've apparently had 2 oil tankers disappear? It's a sad day if that is cheaper/more profitable than Brexit and looks like a better option.

Anyone know if the EU would offer an extension in this case?
I can almost see BoJo saying "now is not the time to cast away allies" or similar

@ContinuityError, oh my god. You must be my sister / cousin! Aside from the , that is - my bloody mother reads the fucking DM.

But she's always writing letters to people (I think she she's her MP as a pen friend!).

She begged her MP to vote for the WA to avoid no deal. But now she wants Johnson as PM. I do despair!

The Torygraph is the word my phone decided to delete from my message.

@yolofish

The news outlets reporting this appear to be conflating two different things (and they really should know better).

Any Tory move to prevent a VONC in BJs leadership by the Tory Party won’t prevent a VONC in his Government by the House of Commons. They are two very different things that appear to be the same to a reporter who is politically clueless. Besides, any Tory voting against the Government in such a vote would by default no longer be a Tory MP!

@Oakenbeach, that explains the confusion then. It was only when I sat and thought about it that I clicked what they are actually planning.

{Pondering whether the plan is to have us declare war on Iran instead of Brexiting after we've apparently had 2 oil tankers disappear? It's a sad day if that is cheaper/more profitable than Brexit and looks like a better option.}

While it would be over reading the situation but France particularly and others in the EU are trying to calm the Iran situation down, and Trump (or at least J Bolton) is seeming to ratchet things up. As is often the case the UK is somewhere in between and with the current 'hate the EU' stance I fear that the UK will be polishing Trumps 'ringpiece' and getting itself tied in with the USA. So, as the Royal Navy does not really have the capability to take on Iran, the UK would be playing along with the USA. Of course 'breaking' military hardware is expensive so the chances of getting into debt with the USA is high.
Has the oil price jumped yet?

The ERG may be trying to dream up Parliamentary tricks, or even new HoC rules, to avoid a VoNC

Tough luck - a VoNC has priority over all other Parliamentary business, Bercow would never allow them to swerve holding it and they don't have the votes to change the rules

The real problem is reportedly that Corbyn is abandoning the idea befores the recess:

Tory rebels have informed Labour that they will give BJ a chance first 🤦🏻‍♀️
and only vote him out if No Deal otherwise looks inevitable

My fear is that the Tory rebels may procrastinate too long, leave it until the last possible day
and that either they miscalculate, so the resulting GE runs over 31 Oct, or the ERG indeed find a trick to delay just one day

The advantage of a VoNC to prevent BJ becoming PM, is that if it passes, May would remain (caretaker) PM
and she would be more likely than BJ to accept the EU offer of an extension for a GE
She has already shown twice that she would rather extend than No Deal

Bolton has been gunning for a war with Iran for years

• in fact any other country in the ME that doesn't pay off the USA with billions in arms purchases

However, the hard right have always been determined to flatten Iran in particular,
in revenge for the embassy hostage crisis

The advantage of a VoNC to prevent BJ becoming PM, is that if it passes, May would remain (caretaker) PM

I’m really hoping BJ doesn’t have the confidence of the house. Don’t know how realistic this is though.

After reports that BJ will bring IDS back to the Cabinet
now a report that he's exhuming another Brexiter with a dismal record of failure:
DD 🤦🏻‍♀️

And DD thinks he is in a strong position, so holding out for one of the 2 top Cabinet posts 🤦🏻‍♀️

David Davis tipped for shock Cabinet comeback under Boris Johnson

So Plan A will be "the EU always blink at the 59th minute" - NO they don't, for non-members

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/19/david-davis-tipped-shock-cabinet-comeback-boris-johnson/?

David Davis is in talks with Boris Johnson over a Cabinet comeback, The Daily Telegraph can reveal.

Mr Davis, 70, who was the first leaver to quit the government last summer in protest at Theresa May’s Chequers deal, has emerged as a late contender for one of the top jobs in the new administration being assembled this weekend
in the hope Mr Johnson will be announced as the next Prime Minister on Tuesday.

The former Brexit secretary is understood to be in line for either Chancellor or Foreign Secretary
after telling Mr Johnson he would not settle for a lesser Cabinet role

'WE NEED IDS' < Fuck NOOOOO ! >
Top Brexiteers push Boris Johnson to make Iain Duncan-Smith his deputy PM

www.thesun.co.uk/news/9537524/boris-johnson-brexit-iain-duncan-smith-deputy-pm/

Senior Tory Eurosceptics are pushing Boris Johnson to make Iain Duncan-Smith his deputy PM to ensure he doesn’t waver on his Brexit pledges.

Christ almighty!

But, maybe all of this news will enable the 'Boris can't command a majority' desire!

We can only hope.

Sadly, it sounds like the Tory rebels will chicken out
Again

They want to give BJ enough chance / rope to hang himself - and the country

I listened to brexitcast and the “quiz” to Steve Barclay on the WA was beyond despair. His defence of the kipper charade was beyond despair. His final argument for that was: “but see! He made them laugh! He’s got the communication skills needed! They were all laughing! You’re smiling too”
Yeah, right
He can work as a clown, thank you very much. Not as pm.
Going from laugh to tears doesn’t take much, and that guys hasn’t got a responsible bone in his entire body....

If anyone else watched Years and Years, the comment about BoJo being fit for PM because he makes people laugh instantly makes me think of the TV with the politician with the spinning bow-tie at the end. Creepy and ominous.