Could Rory Stewart be the Brexit Messiah?

[onalongsabbatical]

I may be suffering from delusions, but so far I like him and he seems to be talking sense and cutting through soooooooo much Tory bullshit. Why is he a Tory anyway? What do people think of him? More to the point perhaps, has he got a snowflake in hell's chance of becoming our PM? Disclosure - I am not and have never been any kind of Tory, I'd rather rip off my own eyelids slowly than vote on the right. However, we are, as they say, where we are. I think he's looking like our best 'way through'.

Citizen's Assembles are usually randomly chosen. A Citizens’ Assembly is a representative group of citizens who are selected at random from the population to learn about, deliberate upon, and make recommendations in relation to a particular issue or set of issues. From citizensassembly.co.uk/

Why wouldn't you include 16-17 year olds and EU citizens? If they are part of the selected demographic, i.e. UK citizens? Anyway all to be thrashed out but I can't see why you'd want to exclude them. Perhaps you've got a reason or two?

Citizen's Assembles are usually randomly chosen

How do you achieve a cross section of age/gender/ethnic background then? Can randomly chosen people refuse to attend?

I secretly quite fancy him!
But I also like some of what he has to say. Best of a bad bunch anyway....

There is somethjng of the night about Esther McVey....

onalongsabbatical
Why wouldn't you include 16-17 year olds and EU citizens?

Exactly my point - a Citizens' Assembly just tips the scales to Remain. I bet you're a staunch Remainer??

I have a vote and it will go to Boris or Michael Gove.

@onalongsabbatical

To put that in perspective, he's told many fewer lies than Gove or Doris (that we know about, anyway - he's also been in the media less).

Just googled the Boris case;

"Revealed: Remainer entrepreneur who crowdfunded to prosecute Boris Johnson over Brexit 'lies' spent £50,000 of donations on branded cupcakes, self-defence classes and a luxury flat with private gym." Daily Fail

a Citizens' Assembly just tips the scales to Remain.

Erm, if a random selection of British citizens would tip the scales to remain, doesn’t that mean we should seriously consider remaining?

Why is he a Tory anyway?

Lol at this. You might as well have put "evil" in there too. Plenty sensible, decent people vote Tory you know.

The fact that Rory used to be a Labour voter when younger only stands him in good stead. He's had the sense to change his thinking over time. He certainly has the tenacity that's needed for the job.

Esther McVey won't win. Despite the fact BOTH previous female Prime Ministers were also born in October (woo) too. Thankfully the Tories have had women in the top job unlike Labour. Where are the calls for Corbyn to resign? A decent opposition would be nice as well as a new PM.

Where are the calls for Corbyn to resign?

Pretty much everywhere?

Ok then exclude 16-17 year olds. And exclude over 70s too. After all they have less of a stake in the future, so arguably less right to be consulted.

FWIW, I do think a citizens assembly working "7 days a week" isn't as easy as it sounds. If it's London based, won't that exclude a lot of people who have caring responsibilities, or want to stay at home with their families? What about those who are studying, or aren't healthy enough to work non stop?

I think it's a good soundbite, and shows willing for consensus, but it's not a workable way forwards.

I'd definitely prefer Rory to most/all of the alternatives, though- if nothing else, he seems realistic about how bad no deal will be, and he seems to care about not destroying the country.

I think he could end up being the leader after this one- probably in opposition, assuming the Tories survive at all.

Labour really do need to ditch Corbyn and start being a credible opposition again.

Ok then exclude 16-17 year olds. And exclude over 70s too. After all they have less of a stake in the future, so arguably less right to be consulted.

You're assuming you're debating with someone who is posting in good faith and sincerely wants to find a way out of this Brexit dead-end ;)

There are an increasing number of brexiters - including Nige, btw - who understand that their relevance ends with Brexit and that it must be prevented from happening at all costs (but that remaining is not an option either). Anyone who supports "no-deal" and means it (as opposed to just not understanding it) falls into this category.

Nige is now negotiating his future European Parliament alliances (with Le Pen and Salvini). All three of them have come to understand that they have more influence in than out.

FWIW, I do think a citizens assembly working "7 days a week" isn't as easy as it sounds. If it's London based, won't that exclude a lot of people who have caring responsibilities, or want to stay at home with their families? What about those who are studying, or aren't healthy enough to work non stop?

The 7 days a week nonsense is plainly just spin, but the idea is not a terrible one as long as it's done in good faith (looking at what's been achieved in Ireland, and how, might be a good start).

noblegiraffe
Erm, if a random selection of British citizens would tip the scales to remain, doesn’t that mean we should seriously consider remaining?

How can it be a random selection of British citizens if EU citizens are included? Did you read my post? How many Scottish citizens will you include? Representative of the population size - or a few extra?

{Ok then exclude 16-17 year olds.}

Since any negotiations will take 5 - 10 years this age group will be massively impacted.

How can it be a random selection of British citizens if EU citizens are included?

Given that you asked whether EU citizens would even be included, I think you are shooting it down on this basis without even knowing the answer!

From what I can tell, they are designed to represent the electorate. If someone was allowed a vote in the referendum, they’d be eligible.

But Clavinova wants the assembly to be biased to leave.

1tisILeClerc
But Clavinova wants the assembly to be biased to leave.

Of course - and onalongsabbatical wants it biased to Remain - so we've got nowhere.

Actually, I am coming round to the idea of a second referendum because I think Leave would win again. Do we know how many EU citizens voted in the EU elections yet?

Looking at the EU election results in Scotland, only 14.8% voted for the Brexit Party - the Remain camp are claiming all the other Scottish votes for their side, but 38% of Scottish voters voted Leave in 2016 - I refuse to believe that the vote has swung that much in favour of Remain in Scotland.Therefore I would much rather have a second referendum than a Citizens' Assembly.

I would settle for a second referendum. But it might indeed be one of the outcomes of a CA that a 2nd ref is put forward, I'd honestly be surprised if it wasn't. Whereas at the moment everyone on the Leave side seems to be against it. Except you, Clavinova?

Just up on the Guardian. www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/30/new-referendum-may-be-only-way-to-break-brexit-deadlock-says-hammond

{Do we know how many EU citizens voted in the EU elections yet? }

You do realise that the EP elections were to select MEPs to represent the UK if it remains in the UK, therefore bugger all to do with much else.

Or maybe you want some very hard right extremists to be on the 'peoples assembly' ?

Erm, if a random selection of British citizens would tip the scales to remain, doesn’t that mean we should seriously consider remaining?

^This

"How can it be a random selection of British citizens if EU citizens are included?"

You would be excluding all British citizens if you didn't include EU citizens. As we haven't left the EU, all British citizens are also EU citizens.
I wonder whether they would include Irish and Commonwealth resident in the UK too? What about those born in NI, but choosing to be Irish rather than British or both... Gosh, sometimes a simple question can have very complex answers that generate further questions...

As for Rory, I think he's exposing publicising himself to the British public before the Brexshit hits the fan. When the Conservative Party has its next leadership election, he'll be able to point to all his efforts that would have avoided the no-deal catastrophe/ revocation of A50.