Civil Servants told to stand down on No Deal planning

[HPFA]

According to Sky News:

twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1116391388638318597

Good job government and businesses haven't wasted huge amounts of money on this.

But they couldn’t have not prepared for no deal while it was still a possibility. It’s great that they’ve ruled it out

Still might happen by default. All the indicative votes that Government are not binding. If the WA continues to be voted down then no deal will happen unless EU keeps agreeing to extensions or changes are made to the WA.

As has been the story all along, if the UK is to leave the EU, the WA WILL be signed. The UK has no practical choice in this matter as the EU will insist that it is signed.
IF the UK gets it's act together, signs the WA and enters negotiations with the EU then there are many opportunities available.
If the UK does not sign up voluntarily, then it will crash out on 31 October, at which point the EU will leave the WA on a table with a pen next to it for whichever Prime Minister is around, and then block all negotiations with the UK until the signature appears.
Since most trade arrangements with the rest of the world are influenced by the EU, and they have to be present at any official trade talks (WTO rules) the UK is effectively forced to sign.
The issue with the Belfast Agreement was known and well publicised before the referendum, but dismissed as inconsequential by those promoting 'leave'.
Having looked again at the government leaflet that was sent out before the referendum, it is interesting to see the things that were stated as being positive for the UK are gradually falling apart due to the uncertainty of the 'leaving' process. The 'Pro Remain' stance is gradually being proven to be correct.

The government hasn't stopped no deal planning, they've stood down those working on it as an emergency incident for now. No doubt they'll have to start it up again as we approach the next deadline. No one knows whether or not we'll be able to get a deal yet and even with Yvette Cooper's efforts I wouldn't say no-deal is off the table.

The money and resources wasted on no-deal planning is an absolute disgrace...

{No one knows whether or not we'll be able to get a deal yet and even with Yvette Cooper's efforts I wouldn't say no-deal is off the table.}

It seems no one is listening. The WA WILL be signed and afterwards there will be negotiations. This is practically out of the hands of ANYONE in the UK.
A 'No Deal' will still be a 'deal' at some point, just a very bad one.
By simply standing still, the EU are running this show and the the HoC, HoL and the cabinet are effectively wasps in a jam jar and the ONLY way out (other than revoke) is to sign the WA as it is.

The issue with the Belfast Agreement was known and well publicised before the referendum, but dismissed as inconsequential by those promoting 'leave'.

And yet it’s such a huge issue for certain leavers that they’ve blocked Brexit because of it. We’d have left by now if it wasn’t for the leavers.

{And yet it’s such a huge issue for certain leavers that they’ve blocked Brexit because of it. We’d have left by now if it wasn’t for the leavers.}
??????

As has been pointed out by so many, the whole of the leave campaign is saying what it doesn't want, but there are no plans to show how it would achieve anything else. Sovereignty that was never lost is working, in that the UK is proving that it can do what it likes and has to come up with it's own solutions, which it is failing to do.

Leavers voting against the WA because of the backstop - the backstop only comes into play if the border isn’t sorted. If the problem were inconsequential then no one would worry about the backstop being triggered, let alone ‘trapping us’ indefinitely. Because the border’s such a piffling problem and easily sorted with ‘technology’, we were told.

We’d have left by now if it wasn’t for the leavers.

This is a completely true and wildly hilarious fact.

If Brexit doesn't happen then history will look back and laugh at the ERG and their acolytes. It is a case study in how to miss an open goal.

No Deal remains the default outcome, if we don't specifically choose something else

So it's hardly an obsession to say it remains a strong possibility
The 6 months extension means politicians can continue to postpone a decision

No Deal cannot be ruled out by the UK, unless we either Revoke or vote for the WA

So far, MPs have refused to vote for the WA
and neither they nor the govt have agreed to Revoke

If the Uk keeps saying what it does NOT want - and not what it does want - then we are dependent on the EU giving us extensions in perpetuity
"Taking back control"

It only requires one of the E27 to veto an extension and we are out

Those who think No Deal is impossible: what do you expect to happen instead ? 🤔

The other possible route to No Deal is May being toppled and an ERG PM taking over

• e.g. if the 1922 committee change their rules about leadership challenges, or if her health deteriorates (more)

The EP elections could be significant in determining what happens:

either Brexit or Remain totalling a large number of MEPs - not just votes -
could both change the UK political direction on Brexit and the EU's willingness to give a further extension

and of course May being forced out if we see a Tory vote meltdown in the the EP and local elections

I can't see the WA being passed unless there are some changes made by EU (doubtful). DUP will reject because of the Border issue in Ireland.. Labour will reject anything the Conservatives put forward to make them look bad and hopefully force a General Election. The hardcore Brexit MP's will vote against the WA as they want no deal.

{The hardcore Brexit MP's will vote against the WA as they want no deal.}

What you are failing to acknowledge is that even 'no deal' means that eventually the UK government will STILL have to sign the WA, even if the PM has to walk over broken glass to get there. Refusing to sign is not an option. The EU are in charge now, as they essentially have been since the A50 was triggered.

even 'no deal' means that eventually the UK government will STILL have to sign the WA

But not the same one as that is on offer at the moment.

@LeaveOrRemain
What makes you think it would be different? We would all be in the same position except the UK would be more desperate for a deal. Please don't use 'they need us etc' coz they don't.

LeaveOrRemain

You really aren't getting this (in common with many others who really must). The WA will NOT be changed.
There is an associated part, the Political Declaration which can and undoubtedly will be changed eventually but the the WA is a legally binding process across all 27 countries, and provisionally signed by Theresa.

If WA is signed as it is currently offered then UK is not leaving without a deal. If UK does not sign WA then a no deal happens by default. Judging by way MP's are messing about I think that is what will happen.

Please don't use 'they need us etc' coz they don't

Not convinced about that otherwise EU would have said goodbye on 23 June 2016. UK is the third largest donor to the EU.

and provisionally signed by Theresa

Signing without running it through parliament was a mistake. I would not be surprised if one of the reasons the WA was voted down by the largest majority ever was that MP's were thinking:

"who does May think she is agreeing to terms without parliament consent?"

That EU does not want to change the WA does not make it a certainty that MP's will agree before 31 October 2019. So either get another extension or leave with no deal by default.

If UK does not sign WA then a no deal happens by default.

So the no-dealers intend us to never strike a decent trade deal with our closest neighbour?

Bloody hell they’re more batshit than I originally thought.

LeaveOrRemain

Even a 'no deal' will still entail negotiations and a 'deal'.
The legal definition of 'no deal' brought about by A50 is immediate cancellation of ALL treaties and trade arrangements. Effectively the UK would not exist . You obviously struggle with this concept.
As a MASSIVE favour the EU have said that if 'no deal' happens THEY will allow most planes to fly, ships to sail, trade with EU to continue relatively unchanged for 9 months to a year which THEY can terminate at any time. This is obviously in their interests and is a massive help to the UK, and they are doing it because they are our friends and neighbours.
A hard enforced no deal might involve the repatriation of EU nationals from the UK if it was really followed to the letter. Of course all food supplies from the EU would stop. OK the UK wouldn't starve, but since the food brought in via the EU is around 30-40%, there would be serious shortages.

{Not convinced about that otherwise EU would have said goodbye on 23 June 2016. UK is the third largest donor to the EU.}

That is not an argument that holds water. The contribution to the EU is around 15% of total incomes from the various countries but with expanding markets that the EU already has trade deals with now, many EU manufacturers merely have to change the languages used on promotional literature and face the emerging markets. A pain in the bum, but not catastrophic, unlike the UK who will have no effective trade deals for a good 5 years or more.

So the no-dealers intend us to never strike a decent trade deal with our closest neighbour?

Some no dealers believe that WTO is better than being in the EU. Former BOE Governor Mervyn King thinks a no deal is possible if prepared for in advance.

Some no dealers believe that WTO is better than being in the EU.

And they think that WTO is better than never improving on that with a trade deal?

Fuck’s sake. Put them in the bin.

{Signing without running it through parliament was a mistake. I would not be surprised if one of the reasons the WA was voted down by the largest majority ever was that MP's were thinking:

"who does May think she is agreeing to terms without parliament consent?"}

Yes it was a mistake, but arguably Mrs May did have the power, as PM to make this decision. You have also to consider that until the last month or two the HoL have had very little grasp of what the WA actually means, as indicated by the ludicrous questions that have been asked in recent months, so it is blatantly obvious that they understood very little of the WA contents. Mrs May has been playing the secretive and manipulative game since she took office and the chickens are roosting.
The EU is largely ready for the UK to 'crash out' with many billions having been spent in preparation. The UK leaving is not much of a 'threat' any more. The EU industries will then be in a position to suck out any industry from the UK if it suits their purposes and with the UK government in such disarray which is likely to continue for another year or so they will be nearly powerless to stop it.

Fuck’s sake. Put them in the bin

People are allowed to think and vote how they choose. If they conclude how they voted in the past was wrong they can vote differently in the future just like in General Elections in which UK has seesawed between Conservative and Labour for decades with Conservatives being in power for twice as many yeasr as Labour since WWII.

{And they think that WTO is better than never improving on that with a trade deal?}

As a rough average, costs of everything will rise around 10% due to increased tariffs, and this would continue for the 5 years or more before replacement trade deals can be actioned. This would be a similar or greater 'hit' than the 2008 banking crisis, for which the UK has hardly recovered from 10 years later. You also need to consider that world trading movements are continually shifting, so conditions now will not be the same in 5 years time. The EU have their deals and the UK will be starting at the bottom.