If you were an MP how would you justify the swing to supporting TMs WA

[Bearbehind]

If you were one of the MPs who voted against the WA in the past 2 votes, how would you justify changing to supporting it?

The fact we are looking at ‘meaningful vote number 3’ is a joke in itself but, if you were one of the voters TM needs to swing this, how would you justify your change of views given nothing has actually changed?

The "it will hurt them more that it will hurt us" argument doesn't float

Can't remember stating that in any of my posts. Indeed my previous post records that I think UK will be worse off that EU in the short term.

As for the report you refer to I have but one question:

If these so called experts can forecast the future with absolute precision why are they not the richest people on the planet?

The forecasts are made on the assumption UK leaves EU on 29 March 2019. Not a very good assumption based on recent events. The report also acknowledges that as Brexit is not finalized forecasts are difficult.

Nowhere in the report does it state that Brexit is certain to result in UK going bankrupt and 67 million people will begin to starve if UK leaves the EU.

Page 10 of the report forecasts that by 2023 UK GDP growth will be the same as in 2010 (6 years before the referendum) using the median forecast, which is about 1.5%. However, by their own admission based on errors in previous forecasts UK GDP growth in 2023 could be almost 4% or as low as -1.5%, a spread of 5.5%.

In other words

THEY DON'T KNOW FOR SURE WHAT WILL HAPPEN

Beera I'd rather trust experts than some bloke on the net. I suspect that is the main difference between leave and remain voters though...

I'd rather trust experts than some bloke on the net

If you read all 205 pages of that report you will see how many assumptions they have made and how many times they say because Brexit is not clear it creates huge uncertainty about forecasts. Page 10 is the best of all. A 5.5% variance on forecast GDP growth!!!!!!

What happened to the disaster that was supposed to occur just by voting leave even before leave happened?

To look at the EU in purely financial terms is missing the biggest point of the whole project, which is about spreading peace and as far as possible a decent standard of living for all citizens.
Of course there are massive differences in GDP between countries. It would be very easy for Germany with it's immense industrial capability to say 'stuff the rest we want to be super rich and keep everyone else out'. Natural resources are not spread equally so in that sense 'industry' cannot be evenly distributed.
Since all countries have their own sovereign governments 'enforcing' equality is not possible from the EP, it can only be done by encouragement, to which some countries take this on board better than others.

To look at the EU in purely financial terms is missing the biggest point of the whole project, which is about spreading peace and as far as possible a decent standard of living for all citizens

So why is the entire World not in the EU?

Even the wealthy EU countries have people living on the streets. So if EU was meant to end poverty for everyone then it is a failed project.

If you read all 205 pages of that report you will see how many assumptions they have made

Reports always make assumptions.What else can you do when predicting future growth or shrinkage. However they are educated experienced assumptions.

The point is all economists (relying on their experience) predict a serious economic downturn. Even the government's own figures reached the same conclusion.

Economists predictions are superior to the assumptions of those on here.

There may be a variance or a range but all the indicators are down, down.

Where are the studies from the LSE, CBI, government etc showing an upward trend? Where are the positive signs of investment, growth, international interest?

We were the fifth strongest economy before all this. We are now headed down.

Does anyone economist or otherwise seriously predict by the acts we are taking and ditching a powerful trading bloc we will some how accend to fourth or third place.

So why is the entire World not in the EU?

Errr other countries would like to join. But because France, Germany, Belgium, the U.K. , Spain etc etc all must agree. As part of the process we laid down chapters which have to be met to apply successfully.

There may be a variance or a range but all the indicators are down, down

The report that was referenced showed then median forecast for UK GDP growth in 2023 to be the same as in 2010. The report made reference to CBI.
Does anyone economist or otherwise seriously predict by the acts we are taking and ditching a powerful trading bloc we will some how accend to fourth or third place

Experts don’t count. The opinion of the average person in the street counts as their numbers are measured in the tens of millions. Experts are not.

"France and Germany will demand more in the future and may even charge UK the disruption costs since 2016."

How. . EU is a rules-based organisation. There is no rule to give EU the power to impose "charges" on UK for disruption.

DH hates radio phone-ins... he hates hearing from Random Jo Public & being expected to treat random-person's opinion as interesting & insightful. He wants experts all the way. He'd say random people are only good for entertainment (& often not even then).

I have a feeling I know where this convo is going, so just gonna park this dictionary definition here. Unlike majoritarianism, Democracy protects rights of minorities and has mechanisms to promote consensus.

@BeersTonight - the point is not how large our economy is. We will still be a relatively large economy - sure. But our economy will shrink more than other people’s. In doing trade deals, I think we will be worse off than now (as other people have less to lose because trade with UK only makes up a small proportion of their total and will push harder for better terms). Sure - standard of living will still be better than many countries in EU, but for UK people, compared to now, I think life will get worse (though as you say- they are only predictions).

PS - standard of living is not necessarily correlated to ‘size’ of economy.

PS - standard of living is not necessarily correlated to ‘size’ of economy

Exactly. So why are people bothered about UK economy shrinking in the short term?

To answer the OP’s question, many Conservative MPs would prefer a no deal Brexit to the current deal with the NI backstop. They voted against the deal and assumed that the consequence would be a no deal Brexit, which they are comfortable with.

Parliament then voted to rule out no deal which has made them think again.

Some would prefer the deal to a delay, which brings risks of a new referendum or moves towards a soft Brexit (Norway +, for example).

The whole process at the moment is about MPs trying to achieve their least worst outcome, and adopting political strategies to achieve that, most of which seem incomprehensible to those of us watching.

To understand what is going on, you need to read the analysis in a serious newspaper and stay away from the silly stuff.

The rabid remainders and the rabid leavers are all against Mays deal. For very different reasons of course.

May is trying to pick off the wobblers and bring them to the centre ground.

I am not a wobbler so no persuasion could bring me to vote for that WA no matter how many times she brought it before the house.

I am not a wobbler so no persuasion could bring me to vote for that WA no matter how many times she brought it before the house

Me neither. The German company I work for all say it is remain in disguise and UK will be paying to remain which is a worse deal than UK has now.

@Beerstonight - sorry, unclear terminology. Although size of economy is not the same as standard of living (eg compare Italy or uk to China), a shrinkage in size of economy is likely to result in a decreased standard of living. I could be wrong, but my guess is that the poorer people will be hit harder as cost of goods/necessities would rise (though maybe some at the top would lose a lot in property values etc). My guess is that Brexit would have a larger Negative change to UK economy and standard of living than German, Italian or french. That doesn’t mean UK won’t still be larger than these - just that we will be harder hit by Brexit compared to remaining.

@Beerstonight - there may be some remainers who prefer hard Brexit to may’s deal and some Brexiteers that prefer remain to it. This is why we need a 2nd referendum with ALL options on table (eg Norway) and vote by alternative vote.

At the end of the WA transition period the UK will be as 'out' of the EU as it wants to be. The actual terms haven't been negotiated yet, the job has hardly started.

with ALL options on table (eg Norway) and vote by alternative vote

Difficulty with that approach is there are so many different leave options. Trying to agree the list would be a nightmare in itself.

{Trying to agree the list would be a nightmare in itself.}
This is precisely why the EU are demanding the WA is signed up first, so that the rest of Europe can get on with important stuff. Issues like far right expansion and what to do with the possibility of millions more refugees/ economic migrants over the coming years.
The UK can bumble along and play with itself without causing too much problem in Europe. The door is open to negotiate if and when necessary.

Since we have not taken advantage of our time to look at alternate deals, the only deals that would be available (which the EU would probably agree to) should be ones that already exist with other countries.

Norway (remain in customs union), WA, no deal, remain

Who will decide whether or not the UK will remain in the EU, will it be the voters or the MPs?