If you were an MP how would you justify the swing to supporting TMs WA

[Bearbehind]

If you were one of the MPs who voted against the WA in the past 2 votes, how would you justify changing to supporting it?

The fact we are looking at ‘meaningful vote number 3’ is a joke in itself but, if you were one of the voters TM needs to swing this, how would you justify your change of views given nothing has actually changed?

The would probably argue that events around it had changed. But so have events since the Referendum vote, but that is apparently different.

Its annoying the same deal can be voted on 3 times in a matter of weeks/months, but the non binding referendum where there was campaign fraud and lots of misinformation cant be have a revote 3 years on.

I can't identify b/c I have supported WA from before MV1.
Some previous MP Resisters seem to be falling in behind the "OMG we might lose Brexit altogether if we don't!" logic.

One MP (I heard on political programmes this morning) had a line of logic that basically said that with No Deal off the Table, UK was now in a very vulnerable position & needed to grab WA before it was no longer an option & EU would only offer a worse deal. I guess most of them will go for that.

Amazing how many Brexiters still argue that the threat "I'm not going to play with you unless we play by MY RULES!" was a trump card that would make EU capitulate.

MV1 was voted down by 230 majority

MV2 was voted down by 149 majority

For MV3 to be agreed there is still a large majority to convince.

I think they will vote for the WA third time around to ensure that Brexit (all be a watered down version) goes ahead. The alternatives are:

EU agrees to an extension or Article 50. UK MP's voted for 3 months. Whether or not EU agrees to that or wants a longer delay on condition there is a second referendum remains to be seen

If neither the WA nor an extension is agreed before 29 March 2019 then the default position is that UK leaves with no deal. Not good for either the EU or the UK and I think UK would suffer more in the short term compared to EU

but the non binding referendum where there was campaign fraud and lots of misinformation cant be have a revote 3 years on

UK government stated before the 2016 they would honour the result and Cameron stated that it was a once only event. No caveats about further referendums if the vote was to leave. Obviously confident the result would be remain.

Article 50 was invoked so UK now has to see Brexit through unless Article 50 was revoked. Can't see conservatives will do that as they know they will do badly when the next general election comes along.

The would probably argue that events around it had changed

I guess that’s my point - very little changed between MV1 and 2 and nothing has changed between MV 2 and 3 so how can people justify the change of position without looking totally foolish.

The only thing that is different is these numpties have started to wake up to reality but the fact that has taken 3 years is a joke.

so how can people justify the change of position without looking totally foolish

There lies the issue. Some people would rather jump off a cliff before admitting they made a mistake. However, in the case of Brexit it is the average person in the street, as opposed to MP's, who may be pushed over the cliff.

As far as I am aware the MPs voting for MV1, MV2 and possibly MV3, MV4 are exactly the same people. Meanwhile over the years since June 2016 the electorate has changed as people died and younger people came onto the register. But MPs are allowed another vote despite Parliamentary rules laid down against this. Meanwhile, 'the will of the people' three years ago must be honoured for all time, despite the fact that the rules for the advisory referendum were not very detailed at best, and at worst looked as though they were something scribbled on the back of an envelop.

A lot has changed. We are now counting down to 29 March in hours not days or weeks, and No WA Deal has been ruled out.

the electorate has changed as people died and younger people came onto the register

As per the ONS data the UK population is ageing as opposed to getting younger. Birth rate in the UK is declining, but life expectancy is increasing. So the over 65's are forming a larger % of the total population as time passes. Look on the link:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/ageing/articles/livinglongerhowourpopulationischangingandwhyitmatters/2018-08-13

We are now counting down to 29 March in hours not days or weeks

That was the case last week too

and No WA Deal has been ruled out

It is technically still the default position

Even though No Deal has been ruled out, it is still the default position. Parliament can prevent it either by accepting WA or PM to unilaterally revoke.

If the WA pass, the Tory party can kick Treeza and install a headbanger (i.e. Bojo, Gove, Raab) then we get the hardest Brexshit.

Brexit is a Tory shitshow. Pre referendum, many people didn't care about the EU but nowadays many are 'experts' in WTO

Austerity is also a Tory shitshow

This is getting beyond farcical now

The government's latest offer to the DUP is said to include new assurances on the controversial Irish backstop - namely a guarantee that any new EU regulations that were introduced in Northern Ireland after Brexit would also be implemented in the rest of the UK.

So to get people to support TM’s method of leaving the EU she plans to agree that more of the UK has to abide by EU rules which it won’t have a say in.

Genius 🤔

I thought she was trying to get the backing of the ERG for Tuesday’s vote - don’t think this is going to be particularly helpful to that cause.

She’s between a rock and a hard place now, DUP or ERG.

She will probably have to stand down IMO.

Would the Tory party / members actually vote an ERG nutcase into the job? Surely they're outnumbered by more moderate MPs etc?

Although maybe not...what were the stats given about the party members? It would be them that landed us with ERG, isn't it? 🤔

We're doomed. Sigh.

Which of the ERG nutjobs wants the job of PM right now? A few years down the line, yes, there will be a queue.

That’s always going to be TM’s saving grace - no one else is stupid enough to want the job as they know it’s a poison chalice.

What the ERG and DUP want is impossible to deliver.

Gosh that's a thought... what if we get repeat extensions of A50 & then of transition period until... past 2022. May said she would step down before next GE. Yet who would want to take over in the ongoing agony of EU-Uk trade negotiations. I don't think anyone is brave enough to be PM in her place to finalise those. May could be as trapped in her premiership as the rest of us are in the Brexit WA purgatory.

Groundhog May!

No MV3 then! At least not unless there is a change that’s worth another vote. As nearly everyone has noted, it was just a waste of time and thankfully John Bercow agreed. If they wanted TM’s agreement they should have voted for it on the previous occasion.

@beerstonight - although average age is going up, if people born in earlier years are more likely to vote Brexit AND people do not become more likely to vote Brexit as they age, then the demographic would currently be more remain than it had been 2 years ago. All other things being equal etc.

I think it is a valid response to say that if DUP change their mind, some MPs would change theirs - in that they may argue that they would not want to put Ireland through more trouble. I guess Sinn Fein might have an opinion on Brexit but choose not to take their seats. But would they be for the WA or against it???

To Namenic

Lots of guessing going on. Younger people more likely to vote remain and older people less likely to vote leave. Everything would be equal in another referendum, etc.

Risk of waiving the white flag is that France 🇫🇷 and Germany 🇩🇪 will demand more in the future and may even charge UK the disruption costs since 2016. EU would be fools not to penalise UK for wasting time.

I am generally risk averse, but I was always of the opinion the EU hold the stronger hand - which is one of the reasons I am a remainer.

EU forms a much bigger percentage of our total trade than us for each of them individually. So each of the EU countries will be less affected by Brexit than we will. In addition, given that we will be in a weaker position, other countries will try and get concessions when negotiating with us because they know we will be desperate.

Give MPs ability to try and do a Norway deal, then put all options to 2nd referendum with AV system. Don’t think this is undemocratic as there are so many permutations of leave - some of the ones promised 2 years ago are impossible/not agreed to by EU.

To Namenic

UK represents about 15% of EU economy. So at first glance it is 15% UK vs 85% rest of Europe. However, if you look at the % of each EU Country individually is it a very different picture.

The top 3 EU members (Germany, UK and France in that order) make up 50% of the EU economy. The top 10 EU members make up almost 90% of the entire EU economy. So the EU wealth is massively dominated by only a small number of the total of 28 members.

The remaining 18 EU Members (65% of the total of 28) make up only 10% of the EU economy. Also worth noting that that bottom 14 EU countries make up 5% of the EU economy. Take the extreme example of Malta. Their economy is 0.08% of the EU.

This is why the EU project has failed. There are a lot more takers than givers. Outcome is that the stronger EU economies are tipping their wealth into the poorer EU countries, but for what benefit? Cheaper labour is the only thing I can think of.

UK will suffer more than the stronger EU countries such as France and Germany, but even if UK GDP were to shrink by 10% as forecast by some UK will still be in the top 3 EU economies moving from No.2 to No.3, but still well clear of Italy who was No.4 in 2018.

In World terms UK is the 5th largest economy. If UK lost 10% of GDP they would become 7th largest economy of the World.

So where does the fear of leaving the EU come from?

Suggest you read this Beers, page 28 blows your numbers out of the water Economic Fiscal Outcome. The "it will hurt them more that it will hurt us" argument doesn't float. Falling sterling hasn't had as great an impact as was proudly confirmed by Brexiteers. Bit like the rest of Brexit really - massive flop.