No deal off the table

[StealthPolarBear]

Will be interesting to see what happens next

OK Bluntness, I found it complex because I'm not feeling great and can barely get my head around how long to stick a pizza in the oven for right now. Sorry if my request for a simple explanation exasperated you!

Bluntness gave a good explanation if you ignore the snark

Interestingly, there is a parliamentary rule that a government can not table the same substantive vote more than once in a year, and the arbiter of whether it is substantively different to the last one is the speaker. So the MV3 may not be allowed in. I thought at the time that the government's spiteful decision to tell Bercow he will not receive the speaker's customary knighthood at the end of his tenure would come back to bite them, maybe it will now!

The EU doesn't want no deal. I think they will agree to an extension. After all, they continue to get the UK's money during that time. And it gives more of their citizens time to have spent enough time in the UK to get settled status etc.

Looking forward to voting in the EP elections after all!

Sorry, didn't mean to be snarky.

"Some think May's deal is remain because of the Irish border issues."
Idiotic.

I also think that a third vote will get through. The grass-roots Tories will be lobbying their MPs like mad over the weekend and in the end they'll bottle it.

However, even if the WA gets through, we still don't know how we're going to resolve the backstop. We have no significant trade deals in sight. I think it will then become apparent that we need to stay in the customs union permanently. Whether that happens will depend on who replaces Theresa May.

Here's how we "resolve " the backstop. We put a border in the sea and have NI as a Freeport/special economic area. Suck it up DUP.

I still think we are heading for a no deal. The EU do too.

Last night was a pointless waste of time.

"Some think May's deal is remain because of the Irish border issues."
Idiotic.

Idiotic or not it is what some think. MP's don't seem to like May's deal as it is has voted down twice by big majorities.

We put a border in the sea and have NI as a Freeport/special economic area

You mean build a customs port in the Irish Sea so goods in and out can be checked?

I think it will then become apparent that we need to stay in the customs union permanently

May as well stay in the EU and not bother with the 39 billion payment if that's the case.

I mean any port on mainland Britain is a customs port. Which they are now. Goods flow across the Ireland UK border as they do now but anything that comes from either NI or Ireland has to pass through customs on the mainland. That is what "border in the sea means ". Or having you been following this?

Goods flow across the Ireland UK border as they do now but anything that comes from either NI or Ireland has to pass through customs on the mainland

If it is that easy why is there so much noise about the backstop?

Because the DUP think that this solution makes them separate from the rest of the UK and signposts Irish unification.

May as well stay in the EU and not bother with the 39 billion payment if that's the case.

Quite! It will be too late by then, unfortunately.

It doesn't actually matter whether a customs border in the North Sea would make Irish unification likely, just the perception of it could be enough to reignite the violence.

Under the GFA, unification is not inconceivable. It's part of GFA if the majority want it. Last count they didn't. Just. Ireland is in no tearing hurry to take NI .
However, I thought we weren't allowed to take the threat of violence into account. Or is that only Unionist violence that we need to consider. I lose track of what nonsense the Brexiteers come up with to justify this ongoing nonsense.
Again, the WA is the only way to Leave.

Sigh, this really isn't complex.

I disagree.

'And if the vote is leave again what happens next?'

It won't be between leave and remain though. The choices will be TMs WA or revoke art 50.

{This could come with huge conditions from the E.U., as frankly they need to get on with their own business and stop having things put on hold because of us.}

The UK is currently a member of the EU and should be involved in the current activities in the EP.
It is not 'Us against them' until the UK leaves.

No deal is an internationally recognised legal position and it can only be stopped by the UK Prime Minister revoking it (or signing the existing WA) before the end of 29 March.
All the HoC and cabinet can do is persuade the PM to make the choice between revoke or WA (or no deal, which the PM can do simply by not calling the EP).

'Here's how we "resolve " the backstop. We put a border in the sea and have NI as a Freeport/special economic area. Suck it up DUP.'

That's not a resolution. The GFA must be respected. NI didn't vote for Brexit, creating a sea border would very possibly lead to violence in Ireland at the hands of the British Govt again. Karen Bradley is already doing an excellent job of agitating the burning embers of the troubles, any kind of border will be the oxygen they need to flare up.

And @Obloodyhell I agree with you, it is complex, it's difficult to understand and that's why so many people don't even try and you see people saying 'no deal, just get it done.'

Which is why we need the backstop and the WA.

I think today's vote is even more critical than yesterday's actually. If MPs vote for a short extension then they must think there is a possibility of next week's vote succeeding. And if they vote for a long extension then they are signalling a desire for something else entirely - GE/referendum/revoke/some other cross-party compromise agreement. I honestly can't see them going for a long extension.

{May as well stay in the EU and not bother with the 39 billion payment if that's the case.}
I have a feeling the UK will be paying it anyway as it is not far off the usual 'subs' the UK pays for membership. The negotiations when this value was agreed was nearly 3 years ago and was for the benefits that the UK continues to enjoy for the next 2 weeks (about £19 Billion worth) and the other £20 Billion was the subs to pay for continued benefit until the end of the transition period that was estimated as 2 years. I expect it would need to be revised as subsequent examination of all the issues and complexity suggests that a transition of 3 years or even more might be necessary as it is so damn complicated.
Remaining in just means that we get far more value for this payment as we then keep all the benefits of being a member, like tariff free trade with about 70 countries.

{'Here's how we "resolve " the backstop. We put a border in the sea and have NI as a Freeport/special economic area. Suck it up DUP.'}

I think the DUP have said since yesterday afternoon that it would not be totally against a 'customs in the sea'.
There are already some checks in place for animal and plant related goods, so it is not like imposing something totally new. Whether checks were made during the sea crossing or in 'enclosed' areas either at the NI ports or English/Welsh ports could be discussed. The issue is about goods, safety and taxes and not directly about citizens at this stage.