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Brexit

Would a deal be too bad.?

4 replies

Maykid · 01/02/2019 11:07

If in the end TM’s deal is accepted will there still be negative consequences for the country or will life pretty much go on as normal?
In other words, should we fear that scenario??

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Somerville · 01/02/2019 11:14

She doesn’t have a deal. That’s more the issue. She has a withdrawal agreement covering absolute basics, and a letter of intent from both sides on the kind of deal they might want to make in the future.
Life will go pretty much on as normal if the WA gets through, for the transition period at least. Including lots of parliamentary backbiting and potential party implosion over the options for deals. Depending on what is chosen, once the transition is over worst case scenario is back to no deal but with NI protected and longer to plan. More likely worst scenario will probably be second order bad for a decade or two, IMO.

Whereas if her WA doesn’t get through it will be severely, dramatically, seriously bad immediately and ongoing. (Some people argue that it will be so bad that it is preferable to the WA, because people will then vociferously want to rejoin EU. Which seems massively risky to me.)

Somerville · 01/02/2019 11:15

The short answer (I’m not good at those!) is that I don’t fear WA getting through. I fear no deal very much.

JohnnyBee · 01/02/2019 11:20

If the withdrawal agreement gets passed, in some shape or other, and Theresa May agrees a trade deal with the EU in two years time, will the house of commons again have to vote on that?

Maykid · 01/02/2019 11:24

Thank you Somerville, that’s very helpful.

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