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Brexit

Can we have a Q & A thread please?

6 replies

TheClitterati · 29/01/2019 09:01

I'm fairly up with Brexit but I get questions I can't answer. I know there is a lot knowledge here so perhaps we can help each other's with questions.

My puzzle : if we hard Brexit, there is this idea that we won't pay the exit £39billion and this is "a big worry for EU" and makes them "likely to capitulate to uk demands".

But if this sum is our legal obligation to the EU, then we will have to pay it and presumably it will be legally enforceable. Also if we want a trade deal with the EU, we can't avoid our legal obligations and debt. Or can we? Is this idea that we won't pay at all simply more fake news from Brexiteers?

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TheClitterati · 29/01/2019 09:11

I mean surely we will still have to pay the £39b to eu even if we hard Brexit?

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EdwinH · 29/01/2019 17:11

A) The idea that the EU will roll over and let us tickle its tummy for £39 billion is a nonsense put out by the hardcore Brexiter MPs to try and build support for a "no deal" Brexit.

  • The £39 billion was never going to be handed over as a lump sum, but over time (decreasing payment schedule all the way to the 2060s). So they're not losing out on £39 billion at once, but a sum closer to what we currently pay net into the EU budget i.e. about £9 billion per year.
  • The full EU budget is about £125 billion a year, so us paying nothing at all instead of the £39 billion leaves a hole of 7.2% in the budget if we use that £9 billion figure. That's "annoying" but it's not something that will sink the EU given the EU27 economy is about £11 trillion a year. Yes, TRILLION. So £9 billion of £11 trillion is like a pinprick to an elephant. An irritant, for sure. Problematic? Not really.

B) If we want a decent trade deal, we will have to pay what we owe. It's again a misconception to think we're "buying" a future relationship with the £39 billion. That's just what we owe based on past commitments. So we can certainly expect legal action would be likely. And the EU aren't going to give us so much as the time of day - let alone a deal - if we walk away from our responsibilities.

But you've got to admit the Leave camp have done a great PR job again. By folding so many untruths into the story, they've made the EU look bad and handing over the £39 billion look daft. And most people (90%? 99%?) won't bother to dig deeper to find out the truth.

TheClitterati · 29/01/2019 18:22

Thank you so much @EdwinH - you confirmed what I thought the situation was.

Yes Brexiteers are doing a number presenting this very differently - the impression often given is that we would simply walk away without paying this to eu.

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TheClitterati · 29/01/2019 18:23

Also a hard Brexit would result in hard border between NI & Ireland. So nothing solved there at all.

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VenusOfWillendorf · 29/01/2019 19:05

Why is JC pushing to rule out ‘no deal’?
How does that work? He doesn’t want the deal on the table - so does he mean he wants no Brexit? And if so why can’t he just say that? If he wants a different deal why won’t he say so? It seems to me everything he IS doing is all about time-wasting and the only thing that serves is a no deal Brexit. Which he wants off the table. It baffles me completely.

TheClitterati · 29/01/2019 22:47

I think JC wants Brexit and to be PM. And he's gambling on Tories losing next election (as opposed to Labour winning).

Brexit continues to be all about political party game playing. So depressing. I

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