When will we actually know?

[MrsSpenserGregson]

When will we actually know for sure if we are leaving on 29th March or not?! And if we are leaving, when will we know what the actual deal will be?

Gahhhhhhhhh

(I realise this is a highly over-simplistic question, but I'm no politico and I need someone to tell me in simple sentences please!)

Sorry, yes I know, but we all know what I mean.

And you can't have the border in the sea, not have it as a special economic area, it's the U.K. and needs to be treated as such. Just like Scotland, England and Wales.

But why can't it be treated differently - like Channel Islands, IOM are?

NI can be given a special deal. Because that’s what the people of NI wanted when they voted for the GFA, when they voted to remain, and what every one of the many recent polls has shown that they still want. Indeed, that was May’s first plan, until she lost her majority and had to rely on DUP (who do not represent the majority in NI!)

In fact, NI already is treated very differently to rUK. There are fundamental differences, such as all-Ireland electricity grid and all-Ireland veterinary checks that go well beyond the devolutionary divergences of Scotland and Wales.

Is the solution ...?

If there was a feasible solution you'd hope someone had proposed it by now ...

As for the OP: I'm coming to the conclusion that we are so far from a consensus that there will be a series of extensions and we are going to be having this same conversation for another three years.

@FloralCup because unlike the Channel Islands and the IOM it is part of the UK and should be treated the same as Yorkshire or Devon.

The Isle of Man and the Chanel islands have a border. You cannot come in from a non eu country without a check, and the eu and wto both require a country to control their border if they wish to be on their terms, it's a legal requirement. Neither the Isle of Man or the Channel Islands have unprotected borders.

The U.K. cannot trade on eu terms, and the eu, the Republic of Ireland, or Southern Ireland, cannot and should not damage themselves by trading on wto.

In this regard both the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands comply and protect their borders and trade on eu terms.

NI has always been treated differently to GB. Lots of laws are different, not just the ban on abortion and same sex marriage.

If the stories were not relying on the DUP NI would have been granted special status with the support of the majority of people in NI and the WIthdrawal Agreement would have been sorted ages ago.

...........Or fallen on a different hurdle.

But the issue isn't their laws, it's the trading terms and protecting their borders, there is no special status that allows an eu country to not protect its borders against a non eu country, none.

I don’t think we will know until at the very soonest within a week of brexit day.

But the issue isn't their laws, it's the trading terms and protecting their borders, there is no special status that allows an eu country to not protect its borders against a non eu country, none.

I kind of understand what you’re getting at Bluntness my dear. But the point is that with a special status for NI it wouldn’t be a non-EU country. It would, just as special status implies, be both within the UK and within certain EU agreements (notably the customs union and parts of the single market) that would enable it to trade on and within EU rules and therefore not have the ‘border’ enforced. It sounds odd, but this mirrors what has already worked for 20 years with the GFA, where people from NI like me can be entirely, Irish, or British, or both, and all be treated the same. So for example when Britain decided to hire more customs aofficers in NI and advised that they must have British passports they were rapped over knuckles by court and had to readvertise making it clear that people who only had Irish passports could also do the job. That is because of the GFA and it has stopped a lot of the discrimination against Catholics that used to be rife. Anyway, that’s a tangent. I’m just trying to explain that the initial solution to find peace in NI was a complex one that isn’t a replication of anything else in the world really. And likewise the Brexit solution is to mirror that. And it’s what the people of NI want.

I'd be supportive of the Brexit solution mirroring the GFA @somerville.

(I'm not Irish and have a woefully small understanding of the issues on the island of Ireland, so I for one would be happy to support a decision that the majority of people on the island wanted).

Why can't we have this??!

Yes, as Somerville said, it's what Theresa May suggested first of all before the DUP kicked off.

there is no special status that allows an eu country to not protect its borders against a non eu country, none

Vatican? I suppose they do no trade.

Because NI is so small and insignificant in trade terms it could have special status without breaching WTO rules or undermining the cornerstones of the EU

Yes, and also Andorra, San Marino, Monaco ..... surely there's free movement between Andorra and France/Spain, San Marino and Italy, and Moncao and France??

I just don't get it. Is this backstop fiasco all down to the DUP then?

If TM wasn't in hock to the DUP, I'd like to think she could tell them to shove it.

The DUP and anyone else who mentions “ Precious Union”

Northern Ireland is part of rhe U.K. and rightly needs to be treated as such, the Republic of Ireland is part of the eu and also needs to be treated as such, both need to comply with the legal requirements against them, which is protect your borders.

There are a great many civil servants, and eu employees who have tried to find a solution other than the backstop,

Northern and Southern Ireland are one land mass, but one part will be eu, the other part not, and both need to legally protect their border from the other, but the gfa says no border between the two, it's the ultimate riddle. How do you protect your border without a border when a customs union is not an option?

But no deal will result in a border, and that rips up the good Friday agreement, so no deal is not an option for the U.K., because we will not seperate Northern Ireland from the U.K., and neither the U.K. or the Republic of Ireland has the option to trade on the other's trading terms and not protect their borders.

The back stop right now is the best option they have, and pretending we may find alternate arrangements is ludicrous, we have spent two and a half years trying to find it, and no one can,

So if we can't Rip up good Friday, and we can't change the law that says eu and non eu counties need to protect their borders from each other, due to the risk of people and product movement, what is the solution?

it is the ultimate catch 22.

Northern and Southern Ireland are one land mass...

Northern Ireland and Ireland are one land mass

Fixed that for you!

You're still doing it, why? I will report you for trolling if you do it again, people explained you acknowledged, please quit it.

surely there's free movement between Andorra and France/Spain,

There is a customs border between France and Andorra.

Please drop this Southern Ireland thing. It's ignorant and insulting. It doesn't help a difficult situation where part of the problem is British ignorance and downplaying of the effect on the peace process.
Just be corrected on the term and move on.

@Mistigri - I didn't know that. I don't think there's a customs border between Monaco and France, or San Marino and Italy, or at least there wasn't last time I was there .... is that because they are classed as principalities rather than countries?

Oh and yes, Southern Ireland doesn't exist. It's Ireland.

@MrsSpenserGregson the borders may not have much physical infrastructure. I can only talk with specific knowledge about Andorra, which only has only two routes in and out (one on the French side and one on the Spanish). This means it's easy for customs to stop people at any point on the road down the mountain. It is in no way comparable to the Irish border.

There is a LOT of smuggling that goes on because fags and booze are very cheap but you can only legally export 1l of alcohol/ 200 cigs duty free. Customs do try to keep a lid on this - checks often take place around 50km down the road (on the roundabout leading to the motorway that heads north). It's not very effective though as there is a healthy trade in Andorran cigarettes at my teenager's high school!

As a model for the Irish border you might say it leaves something to be desired.

Let's federalize and vote to join Ireland! Makes as much sense as anything else, solves the NI problem, respects the Scots and Welsh sovereignty and means we can wash our hand of Westminster.

I could get on board with that solution @TheABC !

So - regarding this backstop - is it only the people of Northern Ireland (i.e. the majority as @Somerville says, not the DUP-supporting minority) who want it, or do the people of Ireland want it too? Presumably most people living on the island of Ireland want it as the GFA doesn't hold up otherwise?

And if that's the case, why on earth did we ever have a Brexit referendum in the first place, if it wasn't possible to leave the EU without breaking the GFA?