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Brexit
Original poster

When will we actually know?

51 replies

MrsSpenserGregson · 28/01/2019 12:17

When will we actually know for sure if we are leaving on 29th March or not?! And if we are leaving, when will we know what the actual deal will be?

Gahhhhhhhhh

(I realise this is a highly over-simplistic question, but I'm no politico and I need someone to tell me in simple sentences please!)

OP posts:
bellinisurge · 28/01/2019 13:09

It may go to the wire @MrsSpenserGregson . I could trot out what little extra political stuff I know but the long and the short is that TM has the power to Revoke right up to the last minute. Presume an aide in Brussels has the letter waiting to deliver it by hand.

Original poster
MrsSpenserGregson · 28/01/2019 13:47

Ah bugger Gin

OP posts:
MrsTerryPratcett · 28/01/2019 15:23

I'd really like to know too. I mean it's WEEKS to go and no one knows what's happening. No way to run a bloody country.

tennisracquet · 28/01/2019 15:37

We (UK) can revoke Article 50 any time we like with no penalty and life goes on exactly as before (except 52% of people voted for something they didn't get).

Theresa May has a signed withdrawal agreement with the EU that parliament can approve at any time.

But unless:

  1. Parliament agrees to the withdrawal agreement as is;

or

  1. the Withdrawal Agreement is reopened (EU says that it will not be, but we shall see) and some amendments are negotiated that means it finds favour with Parliament;

or

  1. Somehow the Article 50 period is extended (EU says it will only be extended in extra special circs such as for a second referendum or general election)

Then:

We crash out with No Deal on March 29.

No Deal is the default. Something listed above has to happen to avert No Deal.

lunicorn · 28/01/2019 15:38

What's the chances of no deal at the moment, do you all think?

CromeYello · 28/01/2019 15:41

I would sooner know, one way or another.
Fail to prepare, prepare to fail etc.

Rumours of a possible GE on another thread.

tennisracquet · 28/01/2019 15:42

Within the last hour Barnier deputy Sabine Weyand has warned of 'very high risk' of no-deal Brexit twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1089894207962132480

CromeYello · 28/01/2019 15:44

Maybe it is going to be a no deal then?

Bluntness100 · 28/01/2019 15:47

It won't be no deal, I think we know that already, the government and and parliament won't allow it, and it won't be 29 March either, we know this too, as it's not feasible to get it agreed and passed into legislation by then.

I suspect we will know early March if we likely have a deal agreed and how long the delay will be.

GD12 · 28/01/2019 15:49

80-90% No Deal at the moment.

Bluntness100 · 28/01/2019 15:49

It's not up to barrier, it's up to the 26 member states, and They are very clear they don't want no deal.

CromeYello · 28/01/2019 15:50

Bluntless I hope you're right!
So why would Sabine Wayard be saying 'high risk of no deal' or have I misinterpreted that.

Bluntness100 · 28/01/2019 15:52

I suspect it's a negotiation tactic. The eu wants us to either revoke it or agree it.

tennisracquet · 28/01/2019 15:53

The member states have to look after Ireland (by having the backstop).

They can't abandon the Backstop (and therefore Ireland) just to stop a No Deal.

Thats the point of the EU. They all stick together. That's one of the reasons it was nice to be in the same gang.

Anyway, that's why a No Deal is so likely.

bellinisurge · 28/01/2019 16:02

I agree @tennisracquet . If E.U. shafts Ireland over this, plenty of other members will get that message : we won't back you.
While it is not in anyone's interest (nobody decent anyway) to No Deal, it is the UK that has to budge. Accept the backstop, sort out a tech solution to the border as claimed is doable quickly, then the backstop isn't needed. If ERG is telling tbe truth about the simplicity and availability of the technological solution, where's the problem. It couldn't be that they are lying, could it?

Original poster
MrsSpenserGregson · 28/01/2019 16:07

I'd like to know the answer to that too @lunicorn

It does feel as though we are going to be taken right up to the 28th March with this before Theresa May finally revokes Article 50 or applies for an extension (given that the current deal won't get parliamentary approval).

I keep telling myself that our politicians won't be stupid enough to let us crash out without a deal, but then I revisit that statement and give a hollow laugh....

I saw a bit of Matt Hancock's interview on the Andrew Marr show yesterday. I'm no Tory but he made a very good case for MPs to vote for TM's deal because it is the only deal on offer and there is no alternative.. (It's not a deal I want personally, but I see the logic in his argument). All this faffing around and debating/voting in parliament tomorrow is all very well, but there is no other deal on the table and it scares the hell out of me that, with exactly two months to go, we still have no idea at all of how things are going to look at the end of March.

OP posts:
Bluntness100 · 28/01/2019 16:43

Anyway, that's why a No Deal is so likely

No that's why no brexit or a delay is more likely, it's very clear parliament and the eu will move to prevent no deal. No deal will result in a hard border. You cannot be part of the eu and not protect your border, Southern Ireland, and you cannot trade on wto without protecting your border, Northern Ireland.

However I have no clue how they resolve Ireland. You cannot have an eu and no eu country bordering each other and no borders. You cannot have a border due to the gfa, there is no technological solution.

So unless we enter a full customs union with the eu, so preventing the need for a border there is no other solution available.

It's fine to say oh we should find an alternate solution. Other than a customs union there is literally no other solution.

Bluntness100 · 28/01/2019 16:52

The only other solution is Southern Ireland leaves the eu. Or Northern Ireland leaves the uk and joins the eul

Legally you cannot be part of the eu and not protect your borders against non eu countries, legally you cannot trade on wto if you cannot protect your borders, so in the event of no deal, both would immediately have to put a hard border in place due to legal requirements .

However the gfa says no border. It's a fucked either way solution, but in no deal, there needs to be a hard border, there is no other immediate solution.

TheEmojiFormerlyKnownAsPrince · 28/01/2019 16:56

Ffs, I’m so sick of this. My nerves are in shreds. Just how can a western democracy allow this fucking insane shitshow to take place? I’m sick of living in a state of high anxiety. 😞

It’s so shit.

Original poster
MrsSpenserGregson · 28/01/2019 17:07

Thanks for the clarifications @Bluntness100. You're not Laura Kuenssberg by any chance are you..??!

OP posts:
Bluntness100 · 28/01/2019 17:14

Lol no, and someone explained it to me on another thread!

Graham Brady has tabelled an amendment saying we should request alternate solutions, but what solutions? There are none. That's why he's using that language, when asked he said well we could put a time limit on it, let either party disengage if they chose, but what he's not able to articulate is how either country protects their borders as will be the legal requirement against them, if there is no back stop.

Because there is none,,well none other than full customs union, one or other country leaves eu/U.K. or we develop a technological solution to protect the borders, that technology simply doesn't exist today. How long would it take to develop it, and get it to the required standard, and implement it, who knows.

Bottom line is they can't risk no deal for many reasons but Ireland and its borders is a key one, and the eu can't say there should be no border protection. The influx of goods and people would be enormous. It needs to be protected. How else do you do it without a border?

FloralCup · 28/01/2019 17:16

Is the solution for everyone to treat NI as a special case and have the border around the whole island of Ireland?

Original poster
MrsSpenserGregson · 28/01/2019 17:16

Yes exactly - there are no other solutions. It's such a mess.

OP posts:
Bluntness100 · 28/01/2019 17:25

Is the solution for everyone to treat NI as a special case and have the border around the whole island of Ireland?Is the solution for everyone to treat NI as a special case and have the border around the whole island of Ireland?

It doesn't change the fact you have an eu country and none eu country bordering each other, and both have different customs agreements and laws. The terms for wto are much less generous than the eu duties, so you can't put Southern Ireland under wto and penalise them, and you can't put Northern Ireland, and as such the U.K., under eu terms without a full customs union, which the govern,ent refuses to enter, it's the red line, as it's leaving the eu without leaving the Eu.

So sadly no, because one part is under one set of laws and customs, and the other part is under a different set.

bellinisurge · 28/01/2019 18:07

Ireland is a separate country so you don't get to decide (any more) where its borders are. A border in the sea with NI as a special economic area would be my preferred solution. But that pisses off the DUP.
And, for the gazillionth time, there is no such country as Southern Ireland.

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