Do you really think No Deal is likely??

[Maykid]

I know it’s a possibility and am preparing a small stockpile in case, but a big part of me thinks the government can’t possibly allow no deal to happen, it seems inconceivable! Unimaginable! Am I just an eternal optimist?
What do others think?

Yes, am afraid I think it is almost inevitable.

To have a deal, we would have needed to agree a withdrawal agreement by October. Then implement the necessary legislation and work on the DEAL. Our government have failed spectacularly at negotiation, I doubt trade deals will go much better.

I think now it will be no deal. It will be a shitstorm and the leavers will blame the EU and/or the remainers because they won’t understand what’s going on:

God I dont know any more. I've stopped watching the news about it because it just makes me even more confused. It's like chess. One person says this thing then another says another to counter it... and none of it seems to be real or actually what anyone really thinks... it just all seems like a very complicated game.

And I honestly dont know why the hardline no deal brexiters are being pandered to? Didnt most of them vote for the first time in the referendum, and wont they just go back to never voting after, so how is that beneficial to any party? And they rent going to like the outcome whatever happens... if we do end up with no deal and everything goes to shit they will be outraged, and if the whole thing is cancelled they will be outraged..... so why not just cancel the whole thing!

I agree. The hardline no deal voters are not going to march on parliament. They are at home writing comments on the Daily Mail pages.

I think now it will be no deal. It will be a shitstorm and the leavers will blame the EU and/or the remainers because they won’t understand what’s going on:

This ☝🏻sadly. 'No deal' will not work as a negotiating tactic because we have more to lose and they've repeatedly said they're not budging. No other options are doable or have enough time for. I also think that it's all been done on purpose to cause as much chaos as possible and keep people distracted and divided because the government certainly don't have our best interests at heart. They probably want more control over the people and to strip away rights and will cite this as a reason.

I’m beginning to think it will be no deal. I worry for that will look like in reality.

I think (hope) that No Deal is very unlikely. At one point recently the EU said that they would only allow an extension of Article 50 for a specific event like an election or second referendum.

My fingers are crossed that the EU and Theresa May are quietly working together toward another referendum

i don't believe the likes of Soubry or Grieve will wreck their careers to save the UK

surely if there's no UK left they won't have any careers to save?

No deal looks more likely as alternatives get slimmer by the day.

IMO the chances of no deal are about 60% at the moment.

Changes practically daily between 50-75%...

I think most know it will be carnage if its No Deal and I don't think they will risk it

I think no deal is incredibly unlikely.

I halfheartedly started a brexit cupboard but I gave it all to the food bank at the weekend because I honestly just don't believe it will happen.

I now think it's going to be a no-deal.
I think they're all insane.

I've been worrying for months that we will leave with no deal and I become more convinced by the day sadly. There is nowhere else to move, we're at checkmate.
The EU cannot remove the backstop, a large number of MP's will not vote for any deal if it contains a backstop and therefore there is no deal which is capable of being passed. We will by default crash out, no matter how much we don't want to, unless TM revokes A50, and she won't do it.

I don't think there will be a no deal Brexit.

No matter how incompetent they are most MPs entered politics with the intention to help the UK and it's citizens. Finally some MPs are sticking their heads above the parapets and offering alternatives; even if the press doesn't report the alternatives.

I think the most likely outcome is an extension and another referendum. But I'd like to see a free vote for all MPs on staying in or out - just those two stark choices. If out then there has to be a cross party negotiating group who's only role is to do the best for the UK. If in then there will be some civil unrest.

I have read a lot of history and one thing is notable - time and again people blundered into an action, so I still think No Deal, because we haven't got politicians capable of doing anything else.

If the Cooper-Boles amendment (the delay A50 one) doesn't pass tonight then I sincerely think that the risk of no deal is at least 50%.

For no deal to be avoided, either May has to revoke A50 unilaterally, or parliament has to come up with a way of delaying Brexit.

If parliament can't do that, then you are relying on a notoriously flexible and single minded politician to change her mind on the biggest and most entrenched political question of our times. If you want to stake your food security on that, go ahead...

I don't think that delaying A50 or asking for a people's vote is necessarily going to take no deal off the table. It'll just kick it down the road. If after 2.5 years the EU/ UK gov. haven't come up with anything better than this then I feel the EU are going to harden their stance if A50 or a second referendum is decided on. So we will get a much worse deal. I also honestly can't see how we can 'take no deal off the table', if we did, how does that help us negotiate anything better? At the end of the day the people who are advocating for these want to remain and think this is their last chance to keep us in the EU.
Remember the EU are notorious for leaving deals till the last min. so hang on in there.

I think we need to keep to the current date of 29th March other wise we have no chance of getting a better deal.

We need to stop talking about "accidental no deal". No deal can't happen by accident, saying that let's TM off the hook. TM has the power to prevent no deal (revoke) and if no deal happens it's because she made a decision not to take the action that could prevent that.

It's important that she is accountable for that IMHO.

I don't think that delaying A50 or asking for a people's vote is necessarily going to take no deal off the table. It'll just kick it down the road

I don't disagree with that. But the 29/3 deadline is the one that has to be dealt with first. And "down the road" the U.K. might be a little more prepared.

Remember that with Greece, it was still a member and wanted to stay in. Not like the UK which has had a tantrum about wanting to come out whilst enjoying the benefits, and expecting the EU to be the one to blink.

The Swiss had a referendum a couple of years ago about controlling FoM - with pretty much the same48/52 type split in the vote as I recall. The Leavers on these threads crowed about how the EU would blink first. It didn't - the Swiss government blinked first by looking at it and saying it couldn't be done.

So you want to leave the EU but expect the EU to come up with a solution where we are as well off as if we Remain?

Riiiiight.....what happened to "Take back control" lol!

There is no evidence the EU suddenly cave in at the 11th hour & the tactic of threatening a no-deal (which far more harmful to us than the EU) is working particularly well.

Opening up the WA will mean everyone and his dog will want to improve their position, months of further delay - it will mean a new set of negotiations with a new commision and possibly a new UK government.

This isn't the 11th hour jas the tactic won't work yet!
As yet we have not left so we are not taking back control yet.
I would never expect to receive the same benefits when we leave as we did when we were in the EU. If TM goes back to the EU with some solutions to the back stop for instance, then it would be in their court to look at it again. If the say no as they are now then we will be out on the 29th March with no deal.