Do you really think No Deal is likely??

[Maykid]

I know it’s a possibility and am preparing a small stockpile in case, but a big part of me thinks the government can’t possibly allow no deal to happen, it seems inconceivable! Unimaginable! Am I just an eternal optimist?
What do others think?

I'm like you. Incredulous at the idea that they could even consider letting a no-deal Brexit happen, but stocking up just in case. I'm an optimist at heart and hope that, in the long run, common sense and public duty will prevail, but who knows - anything could happen.

Nope, not a chance will it happen. Way too much opposition in parliament.

Omg. I hope you’re right.

No

No I don't think so. They will extend article 50 and this whole sorry affair will roll on and on until they agree.

I really hope not

I don't think so. But then I didn't think we'd vote leave, or that Donald Trump would be elected.
We live in dangerous times I think.b

Caticorn very true.

Regular on prepping threads. Also a general prepper. I am reassuring my nervous dh that there is no way the grown ups in Parliament will let No Deal happen. Still prepping, though, still advising people to take sensible proportionate and affordable steps to get a buffer of supplies in.

The only way it can happen is if Theresa May lets it happen. She has the power to revoke Article 50. There is also a majority waiting in Parliament to kill off no deal, that's for certain.

So we will only get no deal if Theresa May decides to throw the UK over the cliff edge to keep the Tory party together (i.e. to keep the members of the ERG on side).

Although even then, she may find the Remain-leaning Tories splinter off into their own new party instead.

So it could happen. But it won't happen by accident. It will be a deliberate, cynical ploy by Theresa May. Yes, it's the default outcome for now, but that default could be altered if she had the willingness to do so.

I think No Deal will happen. There will be Scottish and NI referendums to leave by the end of the year and the Uk will be no more

{I think No Deal will happen. There will be Scottish and NI referendums to leave by the end of the year and the UK will be no more}

You mean WW2 could have been won by showing Adolph some pictures of unicorns and Germany would have simply imploded?

Based on that previously UK lorries and flights wouldn't be able to operate in the EU with no-deal, i have always thought NO.

However, the EU has now said that UK Lorries and flights can operate in the EU and there are moves to extend these no-deal plans further, so now i think we could leave on no-deal, i don't believe the likes of Soubry or Grieve will wreck their careers to save the UK.

Remember, people like May Farage, Johnson and almost everyone in Government are very very wealthy and there is no means to hold them to account whatever happens, for them its just a game.

I'm edging more towards it being no deal. I really hope not, but I can't see any other possibility. I don't think there'll be another Ref, so that leaves Revoke (unlikely imo) or extension (possible) or no deal.
Hearing all the preparations the govt is making makes me think its heading for no deal.
It's a waiting game.

Scotland national animal is a unicorn so we have all the unicorn powers ;)

I really hope not, but the government is running it rather too fine for my liking, and even though there is a majority in Parliament against no deal there is no majority for an alternative plan.

I didn’t think Trump could be President. I didn’t think we would vote to leave the EU. I didn’t think I would ever see the DUP having so much influence in Westminster.

These are strange times. Anything is possible.

I think it will because A) there's a lot of popular support from Leavers, all of whom swear to high heaven that it will be no big deal, and B) it's the default position without a deal and I really don't think a deal will be agreed by anyone on either side of the channel.

However, the EU has now said that UK Lorries and flights can operate in the EU and there are moves to extend these no-deal plans further, so now i think we could leave on no-deal, i don't believe the likes of Soubry or Grieve will wreck their careers to save the UK.

Bear in mind these are unilateral arrangements. The EU's doing stuff to help itself, which also by fortunate coincidence helps us too. But they're not "deals" in the sense that they're not things the EU and the UK sat down and negotiated together, and agreed on.

It's like a friend offering you a lift to work because he happened to drive past you as you were walking. You can't assume that creates an ongoing obligation to give you lifts.

Similarly, the EU's temporary fixes are very temporary (until the end of 2019 at the latest) so they don't really fix any of the problems. They can also be withdrawn by the EU at any time without notice (because they're not legally binding deals between two parties).

Finally, they don't replicate the status quo. Both the haulage arrangements and the flight arrangements come with severe limitations that we don't suffer at present.

For instance, in the case of flights, they're based on historic flight routes and numbers of landings/takeoffs, meaning that airlines that have recently expanded their routes will have to chop some of their services to meet the quotas of flights allowed under the temporary fix.

Similarly, in the case of haulage, UK companies will be able to transport loads directly to/from EU countries, but they will no longer be able to take jobs involving transport within a single EU country (e.g. a load from one part of France to another part of France), nor between two EU countries (e.g. a load from Belgium to Poland). So that severely limits their options when it comes to putting together a profitable itinerary of work for any given haulier.

I'm thinking 'no deal' as well and (from a gut feeling only), have thought so since the end of October last year. My DH's response when I told him this a few months ago was, "We can't, it'll wreck the economy/country," to which I said, "Do you think any MP's care? They're all in it for themselves/party politics." I think he's beginning to see it that way now as well.

(The MD of the company he works for, also thinks that whatever happens we're heading for a recession within the next year as well. All things to look forward to eh, but at least we'll have those blue passports.)

It's always been on the cards.

Afaik know we can ask to extend the deadline, but the extension doesn't have to be granted. Happy to be corrected.

It's a shit storm. What the government wanted was never going to be acceptable to the eu. The compromise is widely viewed as unpalatable. Combination of arrogant idealism and naive ignorance.

I think No Deal is most likely, since the politicians seem the biggest bunch of incompetents I have ever seen.

No deal is the default position. If the politicians can't agree with WA or the PM doesn't revoke then No deal it is.

I'm prepping for no deal. I don't trust the current shower of shit that governs this country to do the right thing, and having hordes of deluded Leavers shouting that it will all be great and this is exactly what they voted for isn't encouraging either.

I think it’s very, very likely. I’d prefer them to revoke, or if we must leave then leave with a bloody good deal, but unfortunately these options seem increasingly unlikely.

I wonder how Teresa May will be remembered in the history books?