Revoke Article 50 - pick a date by the links in the chain

[Ta1kinPeace]

Lorry drivers are paid by the round trip job.
Each job is costed by number of hours driving ~ number of hours resting ~ number of hours caught in congestion.
Lorry drivers like to get home regularly and hate getting stuck in blockages.
To make sure they are not, prices flex to reflect risk.

In the latter half of March, more and more trucks will be costing in the risk of getting trapped on the M20
so drivers will put their prices up or start to run other routes.
Suppliers of the JIT variety will look at their risk of having stock spoil in lorries stuck at ports
and may choose to sell produce elsewhere

I therefore suspect that the wholesale and retail shop shelves will be looking pretty sparse by around the 24th of March
at which point the reality of "No Deal" will start to hit home
and Revoke may just be called in time.

Any thoughts?

I also suspect that a lot of EU folks without strong ties here may choose to go home for Brexit so that they have the run of 27 countries in April rather than just one.

The sectors dominated by EU workers will start to squeal by late March as well.

I think this makes sense - only problem is things that don't make sense seem to be happening with increasing frequency.

I think if it's all still rumbling on by March then things will start to become noticebale like this, because as you say, people will start to make plans/alternative arrangements and so on.
I really hope it's revoke, although that's by far the end of the story, but at least it would avert complete catastrofuck in the short term.

Plenty of folks still haven't noticed that all the car factories are closing 'temporarily' before B-Day, along with lots of other foreign-owned firms.

Hi ta1kinpeace! Well, I'm afraid I can't see a revoke happening- I think TM has firmly nailed her colours to the my-deal-or-no-deal mast... however I think she might be pushed into an extension request in February.

Extension request for what Quietrebel? More shenanigans or a proper reason do you think? The WA has been voted down, so the only thing left is either revoke or Leave IMO.

At this stage A50 would be extended if there were to be another referendum I suppose (which according to what I am reading will take approx 22 weeks to organise).

But..... the European Parliament elections in May are problematic too for any reasonable extension, time wise.

I wonder what May's plan B will be?

therefore suspect that the wholesale and retail shop shelves will be looking pretty sparse by around the 24th of March

That'll be from all the Remoaners panic buying and trying to ruin Brexit.

How can you 'ruin' a disaster?
Leaving, particularly a 'no deal' leave MEANS there will be no trucks of food from over the channel.
The A50 definition means that at 'exit' day the UK is a third country with no ties whatsoever with the EU. That means no food.

That'll be from all the Remoaners panic buying and trying to ruin Brexit.

Whatever happens will be blamed on Remainers.

I admit I was not going to react to the daft comment.

If No Deal supporters think that they will be unaffected
roll on the latter part of March when the can being kicked down the road bounces back.

My post is apolitical
Its about business logistics
as profit making companies will seek a profit
and pay me nice sums to do their tax returns even with the omnishambles clusterfuck

Exactly, MrsTP. Apologies for the sarcasm fail LeClerc and T1P.

Apileofballyhoo
It's getting difficult remembering what can be said to different posters as some 'get' sarcasm, many don't and some are just so sensitive where bold type may send them into a rage.

For a while I thought that only an actual real 'No Deal' would change the minds of those that wish for one, but I actually think now that ideas are so entrenched that no matter what happens it will be the fault of the remainers.

But yes, if chaos begins prior to 29th I suppose there would be added incentive/pressure on TM to revoke.

TP

I have had some of the same thinking for some time. Are companies whose reputation for fresh products going to be willing to take a real risk that their name brands will be damaged by their goods having become spoiled or rotten because it just took too long to get to the store shelves?

If they can find other buyers for their products elsewhere and maintain their reputation why shouldn't they? Also, they will not have to worry about no one wanting to buy their products because they have gone bad.

The issue with truck drivers is a whole other can of worms. This can all be avoided by finding buyers in other countries before March that will be easier to get into and out of that the UK will possibly be.

I have done / do accounts for hauliers
I know how the margins work
and I know how much my drivers used ho hate getting "weekended"

I cannot see any of the self employed drivers risking the UK run after the 20th March (in either direction) as the risk to their margins is too high.

And for the big companies - like Stobart - paying chaps to be parked up versus paying them to be doing drops and pickups is a no brainer.

This is not politics
this is economics

I actually think now that ideas are so entrenched that no matter what happens it will be the fault of the remainers.

Yes, it will be the same old, same old with or without a deal on the 29th. The ERG/Johnson/Mogg either lack the aptitude or desire to actually manage Brexit and the same divided government would still be trying to solve the same problems and deal with the same EU 27.

Very easy to shout from the side lines that all you need to do is tell the bally foreigners where to go because don't you know we're British.

I have no idea how that would change with a general election, but even if Corbyn did become PM, I can't imagine that it would be on the basis of having a landslide majority.