Trading under WTO rules...what it means if no deal.

[PeridotCricket]

Link to an excellent explanation as to what no deal Brexit means.

drive.google.com/file/d/1qOyv69Cn-5-OoQldwely301TWyj5heTZ/view

Or on twitter but less east to read twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1073221524545363973?s=21

For a start BMW will be paying your taxes for you. We import about 1 million cars per year from Germany ($23Bn 2016) and all of these will command 10% tariffs.... Which go straight to the treasury. So a cool couple of bn just from German cars.

Oh dear, what claptrap. Who do you think ends up paying that 10% extra? It goes straight on to the cost of the car. We end up paying it.

£12 billion a year which doesn't show up in our contribution as the EU considers it their 'own resources

This just isn't true. 'Traditional Own Resources' make up part of our payment to the EU - about 19% of it.

No you are wrong.

Own resources include tariffs, VAT (£3 billion in 2017) and fish. As defined by the EU.

We are already paying tariffs on any cars made outside the EU.

Post brexit the EU external tariff wall goes straight to the treasury, as does the brand new tariffs from our imports from the EU.

Currently 80% of the tariff revenue goes to the EU.

A £12 billion increase in revenue and balance of payments is an extremely conservative estimate.

As pointed out above just German cars alone will total a couple of billion.

Our total imports are greater than $600 billion a year.

EU external tariffs average 4.7%.

As I said, extremely conservative.

@Spinflight - no, I'm not wrong. It would have taken 2 minutes for you to confirm that for yourself.

Own resources include tariffs, VAT (£3 billion in 2017) and fish. As defined by the EU.

As I said 'Traditional Own Resources' make up part of our payment to the EU. Import duty ('tariffs') make up part of the TOR and they're included in the often-quoted figures of what we send the EU.

Our EU contributions are calculated based on 3 variables:

Gross National Income (GNI)-based revenue, which is a 0.7% levy of each member state’s GNI;

VAT-based revenue, which comprises a percentage (usually 0.3%) of each member state’s standardised value added tax rate; and

Traditional owned resources (TOR), such as customs duties on imports from outside the EU and sugar levies.

'Traditional owned resources' includes the import duty we collect on behalf of the EU, less a percentage for collecting it.

This HoC briefing paper gives a handy breakdown of exacrtly how our contributions have been calculated for the last few years.

The table on page 6 of that report is very clear (see graphic).

Customs duties and levies: £3,172
VAT contributions: £3,040
GNI contribution: £12,154
VAT & GNI adjustments: £258
Contributions: £18,624
UK rebate: £-5,633
Gross contributions (after rebate): £12,993

So when you say that we collect £12 billion a year which doesn't show up in our contribution', you're wrong on two counts - the import duty we collect on their behalf is included in our contribution figure and the amount we actually sent them in 2017 was £3.172bn rather than the £12bn you claim.

A £12 billion increase in revenue and balance of payments is an extremely conservative estimate.

This sentence has nothing to do with anything being discussed or that you've said previously and anyway it's nonsensical non-fact that can't possibly relate to the subject. Did you just write down a random sequence of words you'd heard on the news, hoping they'd make you sound convincing?

Spinflight

For a start BMW will be paying your taxes for you. We import about 1 million cars per year from Germany ($23Bn 2016) and all of these will command 10% tariffs.... Which go straight to the treasury. So a cool couple of bn just from German cars.

Utter nonsense. As FishesaPlenty points out, BMW (and the other German manufacturers) will not be paying a penny of their own money in tariffs. Any import tariff is paid by the importer, who promptly passes it on to the end consumer - so the end consumers end up paying. There is no gain to the UK economy - money just moves from the UK taxpayer to the UK Treasury. In fact, the UK economy will suffer as money in circulation for personal consumption falls in the event of tariffs. Money paid to the Treasury means less money available in consumers' pockets for other purchases, so they buy less.

And the BMWs made here will also command 10% tariffs, but this money goes to the EU rather than Germany

There won't be any BMWs made in the UK after Brexit. The factory cannot assemble cars if the gearboxes are stuck in Calais and the wheels are in a container somewhere between Munich and Felixstowe. BMW will close the Oxford factory and increase production of Minis in Holland and Austria, where they are also currently made. That way, Mini's sold in Europe will not be subject to any tariff in the EU.

Repeat for:

Toyota - who have just purchased a factory in the EU with a capacity of 300,000 cars a year;

JLR - who have just opened a £1bn factory in Slovakia that is far larger than anything that they own in the UK;

Nissan - who are not going to make their new models in Sunderland as there is already excess capacity in France and at Dacia in Romania.

We are already paying tariffs on any cars made outside the EU

Very few cars sold in the UK come from outside of the EU. Kia, Hyundai, Mazda, Mitsubishi all make cars for the UK market in their European factories in Poland and the Czech Rep. Jeep is owned by Fiat and make UK-bound cars in Italy. Ford in Spain. All of these will be subject to tariffs after Brexit - paid for by the UK consumers.

"Utter nonsense. As FishesaPlenty points out, BMW (and the other German manufacturers) will not be paying a penny of their own money in tariffs."

Absolute rubbish...

You clearly understand none of this.

Margins in the UK are so high that they call us Treasure Island, and the importer of BMWs is.... drum roll ... BMW (UK)!

So their 150,000 cars will be tariffed at 10%. Several hundred million a year just from BMW. That is money in tax that only BMW drivers will have to pay, and that isn't me.

What you clearly fail to realise is that the tariff revenue from EU imports is brand new, whereas the dodgy figures given for our imports from the RoW ( $250Bn in 2016, of which $22Bn tariff free, at an average tariff of 4.7% is clearly not £3Bn) return to us.

So we get our contribution of £19 billion back PLUS conservatively £12 billion in tariff revenue. On day one.

That's 1.5% of GDP returned to us on day one of no deal.

Meanwhile the eurotrash imports will be more expensive for the consumer, so they're more likely to either buy British or for firms to set up here to supply our market.

We are the buyers.
We have control.
We decide.

Meanwhile you are effectively arguing against free trade. What sort of a Brit doesn't believe in free trade?

Personally I'd reduce as many tariffs to zero as possible ( except German cars, because I like the idea of BMW paying my taxes for me) we have hardly seen a penny of it thus far as it has all gone to Juncker's brandy fund.

Reducing tariffs is by far and away the single best way to alleviate poverty around the world. As detailed here...

www.copenhagenconsensus.com/sites/default/files/post2015brochure_m.pdf

Every £1 spent on tariff reduction gives £2011 of poverty alleviation. And that's from the experts.

But... the crybaby snowflake Euroweenies insist that only the EU can set our tariffs for us. Only Europeons should benefit. We have to buy German packaged coffee rather than it benefitting the country that grows it.

Which is pretty dark.

I repeat, no true Brit fears free trade and free trade benefits the poorest in our society and around the world the most.

You have to wonder what the agenda of anyone who argues against it is.

( apart from on BMWs because that is amusing)

Margins in the UK are so high that they call us Treasure Island

...but only if you're living 15 years ago, before the EU stopped the manufacturers from profiteering on RHD cars.

Of course we'll lose that protection after Brexit so you can look forward to another reason for prices to go up - on top of the import duty and exchange rate crash.

Spinflight

What are you talking about? Either
For a start BMW will be paying your taxes for you or That is money in tax that only BMW drivers will have to pay

The situation is of course that it is the BMW drivers who will pay - along with the Mercedes drivers, and those driving imported cars made in the EU by Honda, Toyota, Nissan, Opel/Vauxhall, Peugeot, Kia, Mitsubishi, Ford, VW, Skoda, Hyundai etc etc.

What you clearly fail to realise is that the tariff revenue from EU imports is brand new

The UK gets no tariff revenue other than what is paid by the UK consumer. This is basic stuff - the end consumer pays the import tariff, not the exporter or even the importer (who just passes the extra cost on). This in turn represents a reduction in the money supply - consumers will have to pay import tax on cars, electronics, fridges etc. all of which will increase in price in the UK - so the money available for other expenditure decreases. Decreased consumer spending results in less demand, resulting in job losses in retail and manufacturing (over and above the loss of the auto and aero jobs) leading to a deep recession.

Margins in the UK are so high that they call us Treasure Island

This has not been the case for many years. In fact, car companies in the UK make very little from the margin on the cars. They make their money from the finance packages and from the servicing and spare parts.

Just admit that you want to keep tariffs high and poor countries poor.

To protect snowflake Europeans from world competition. Because they is speshul.

Well I don't fear such, it merely means lower prices ( world prices) for those who need them in the UK. And more importantly poverty alleviation worldwide for countries who will have free and fair access to our markets.

Free trade was the engine behind our greatest years as a nation, between the Corn Laws and panicked reintroduction of import tariffs in the 1930s.

Churchill was a free trade advocate. So why aren't you?

I honestly thought free trade was a British ideal...

(Other than Germans cars such that BMW pays my taxes for me, which is amusing)

So we get our contribution of £19 billion back PLUS conservatively £12 billion in tariff revenue. On day one.

Thr current tariff revenue we collect on behalf of the EU is around £4bn.

£3.2bn of that is handed over to the EU as part of the £18.6bn contribution.

We get 30% of that back as part of the rebate so that's £2.2bn we've given them to cover duty we've collected.

The £4bn we collected covered all the tariffs on our imports from non-EU countries.

You're suggesting that we'll be charging '£12bn in import duty on the 49% of goods we import from the EU, even though we only collect £4bn on the other 51%?

Either way it's irrelevant. No amount of weasel words and false assertions from you is going to change the fact that increases in UK import duty will eventually be paid for by the UK consumer. It's as much a form of taxation as VAT is.

Churchill was a free trade advocate. So why aren't you?

"Hard as it is to say now.. I look forward to a United States of Europe, in which the barriers between the nations will be greatly minimised and unrestricted travel will be possible." Winston Churchill 1942.

reads both sides of argument. Makes note to add to food store

"The UK gets no tariff revenue other than what is paid by the UK consumer."

Remoronic logic.

BMW (uk) will pay the import tariffs.

That's a fact.

Pray tell us why with our massive trade deficit with the EU we should allow them to set our import tariffs? Which they currently do.

We are the buyers. We will take back control.

And I sincerely hope that we lower all ( well almost all, I'd quite like BMW to pay my taxes for me) tariffs to zero.

@Fishesaplenty

As he left the Tories over free trade and campaigned for the liberals almost exclusively on free trade it's clear as day he would have detested the protectionist EU.

BMW (uk) will pay the import tariffs.

Yes, like they pay VAT, and tax. But the consumer ultimately pays.

"Yes, like they pay VAT, and tax. But the consumer ultimately pays."

No skin off my nose if BMWs are more expensive.

Don't get me wrong there will be endless wailing and knashing of teeth in London...

But the thought of Londoners paying my tax for me.... Well I suspect you can guess the rest.

No skin off my nose if BMWs are more expensive.

it wouldn't be such an issue if it was only BMW - it's not though, it's most of what we buy. Odd that you should focus on a single German manufacturer of high-end cars though if you don't buy from them anyway. I wonder what your reason for that could be?

Anyway, enough of this. You're quite obviously a paid propagandist or a raving fool. The lies you've told on this thread alone mean that anything you rite is just worthless rubbish.

Spinflight

Free trade was the engine behind our greatest years as a nation

There was no such thing as 'Free Trade' when the UK was supposedly at its greatest. Raw materials were virtually stolen from the colonies, mines and plantations worked by indentured labour and anyone who organised any form of resistance was ruthlessly dealt with at the sharp end of a bayonet or a gunboat barrage. Finished goods were exported back to the colonies for the vast profit of the British manufacturers and government.

I repeat, no true Brit fears free trade and free trade benefits the poorest in our society and around the world the most

You have to wonder what the agenda of anyone who argues against it is

The poorest in the UK have much to fear if the politicians share your ill-informed fantasy. Sadly, some of them do - read Raab, Patel and Truss's 'Britannia Unchained' and weep.

How do the poorest in the UK benefit from competing with workers in Bangladesh earning 35p an hour? How do British farmers compete with chlorine-treated, infected meat from the USA? How do the poorest in society compete with workers indentured to dangerous, polluting sweatshops in countries with low environmental and employment standards?

What is needed in order to protect the poorest in society, to ensure shared prosperity for all, to prevent wars, to maintain standards and to provide a powerful political voice in the world (now that bayonets and gunboats don't really do the trick) is to have something like an association where say, 500 million people in 28 countries decide to co-operate, maintain common internal standards and use their position to encourage other countries to improve their standards.

"it's most of what we buy."

Almost dangerously close to the truth there...

Germany gets well paid engineering jobs to export to our market. Good honest work for the masses.

In return we get a load of toffee nosed bankers in London gambling recklessly on derivatives whilst condescending to us about how it would be simply beastly if Tarquin had to pay a bit more for his shiny new BMW.

Almost as though there was a plan behind it all...

"compete with chlorine-treated, infected meat from the USA? "

Ate plenty of it a few weeks ago.

It was lush.

And soon you'll have the opportunity to try it too.

chlorine-treated, infected meat from the USA?
The MN Brexit boards often mention the horrors of US meat. No mention of the recent Polish beef scandal or the horsemeat one. Funny that.

Spinflight

Germany gets well paid engineering jobs to export to our market. Good honest work for the masses

In return we get a load of toffee nosed bankers in London gambling recklessly on derivatives whilst condescending to us about how it would be simply beastly if Tarquin had to pay a bit more for his shiny new BMW

Almost as though there was a plan behind it all...

At last something we can agree on. There is a plan behind this.

The Brexiters' guru is Prof. Minford, who has argued for years that the UK should not invest in stuff like engineering, manufacturing and knowledge, relying instead on being the bankers and financial services providers to the world. Exactly as you describe.

Conservative governments from Thatcher onwards have bought into this nonsense theory. The result has been the demise of UK manufacturing and engineering and the destruction of communities that were based on these. In the meantime, people in London have grown rich by pushing pieces of paper from one desk to another (or by clicking on screens) magically 'creating' wealth by moving money around and taking a cut out of every transaction. The con-trick that the Brexit campaign has performed is to convince those most affected by this self-inflicted decline to vote for more of the same - on the lie that everything that is wrong with the UK is the fault of the EU and that everything will be infinitely better once the UK leaves.

This fantasy is nonsense. Turning the UK into a free-trade Singapore-on-Thames will make a few people extremely rich, will employ perhaps a few hundred thousand people in whatever services are left in the UK, but will leave over 50 million in debt and in relative poverty desperate for any job at any wage - the exact situation that millions of zero-hours workers already find themselves in.

Spinflight

What World lower prices?

I'm afraid when you state authoritatively that the period between the corn laws and the 1930s was Britain greatest due to free trade, you are talking utter rubbish and no mention of the vast social and economic deprivation bought on the poor.

It was a period where the rich got richer and exploitation of the working class, not too mention other countries resources, we did well because we had little competition.

Yes the UK has been known as Treasure Island for some but this is due to UK importers/retailers charging what the market can stand, you are deluded if in your free trade world, product A will suddenly drop in price because a tariff has been cut, the price will stay the same, there is no reason to cut the price, why not just increase profit?

You hatred of all things German is telling, i'd bring up WW2 & 1966 if i were you lol!

"The result has been the demise of UK manufacturing and engineering and the destruction of communities that were based on these."

No it was the Euro that did that...

Or specifically the weighted export advantage that Germany receives due to the weakness of the other Eurozone countries.

Oddly German industry isn't even particularly efficient, they've grown rather fat and comfortable on a 30% undervalued currency.

Horsemeat is quite tasty, could be a benefit of brexit, all those ponies on Dartmoor! yummy!

Or we could start up donkey farms to export to the growing market in china?
gulfnews.com/world/asia/pakistan/pakistan-to-export-donkeys-to-china-to-earn-foreign-exchange-1.1548923443899

Tariff free of course.