When is "the 11th hour"?

[MrsTerryPratcett]

I'm in the UK in March, hoping to fly out the 29th (I know, I know).

From what I can work out, we won't know if it's no deal, TM's deal or no Brexit until 'the 11th hour'. I'm trying to work out when I will know if it's worth changing my flights, having a plan B, or stockpiling food in a hastily dug Anderson shelter in the garden.

When will we know?

Technically, isn't a literal 11th hour of 11 pm GMT on 29 March. Or maybe even a minute before midnight.

I think we're kind of in the 11th hour.

That's the thing. Technically I can see that a deal could be agreed up to midnight. But a deal this complicated? Surely it's months ahead?

If the Withdrawal Agreement makes it through all the hurdles - seems like to fall at the first but who knows) - then transition starts at midnight on 29/30..
If we revoke (which also seems unlikely) that starts when the revoke letter goes in.
If we No Deal, that starts midnight 29/30.

Or we get a delay and that is until the delay ends.

I would want to be back here in the UK by 29th.

What time is your flight? And how long is the flight? When are you due to land?

I'd have to check the flights but it's a non EU country.

Not clear from your op. Are you due to arrive in uk on 29 March? If so, you will be fine. If it's just after midnight and into 30, you are also likely to be fine but get that in writing from the airline.

I'm going to check the exact times.

Can't right now as I'm getting on a flight

Bon voyage

In theory we will only know for definite at 11pm (UK time) on 29 March but has been said there should be strong indications anytime before that as to what will actually happen.
If nothing has been decided you will not be allowed onto the 'plane' and in any case you will be 'safe' as obviously a 'plane that is airworthy at 1 minute to midnight (EU time) will be the same 1 minute after.
This probably isn't a help with your planning but at this point literally no one knows, not even Mrs May as other events could take over.
If it is convenient you could inquire about changing your flight, or treat it as an adventure and take plenty of sandwiches with you.

Bellini, you can't have 'bon voyage', as that is 'foreign'. It will have to be 'have a good trip old fruit'.

I would plan to come back on or before the 28th.

I know there is a moratorium on business trips to the UK from 28th onwards in the (large, global) company I work for until everyone knows what’s going on. Basically we don’t want people stranded there or hugely delayed getting back to the country they live in (and I suppose, safety of our staff if it all goes completely tits up) Meetings with our UK people are to be held in Dublin or similar until we know what’s what.

If we really were to get into a "no fly" situation - which I think is unlikely but not impossible - there would be impacts before the 29th March. Airlines and regulators wouldn't want planes in the air potentially unable to land legally.

Like I said - it's unlikely - but I won't be booking travel after mid March (unless the WA is signed).

My (FTSE 100) employer won't expect me to travel over the brexit period. I'm not booking anything at all in March or April until there is clarity.

I'm in France and DD school are organising a coach trip to the UK early May. I have to pay a deposit on Tuesday if she is to go (she really wants to) but I am concerned that all the first and last days of a 5 day trip will be spent in a traffic jam at the port.

(Sorry for hijack, just don't know what to do).

@clearsommespace Have the school addressed this issue? It will obviously be a concern for parents and I think they should.

I agree with @Klobuchar .
How old is your dd?
Suggest (if she isn't too grossed out by the idea) sticking a SheWee in her bag.

No. I saw the teacher organising it yesterday and she was surprised at my concern. Said the travel agent had given her no indication there might be any problems and surely the UK would still welcome tourists regardless of what happens.
I said that once past the ports it shouldn't be a problem but what if the ports are gridlocked..? She said they would probably just leave earlier.
There are drivers per coach so at least working time restriction shouldn't be a problem...

They are 14/15 yr olds.

Off to Google but product name is suggestive....

Clearsomme - personal view based on (a) a month being long enough for the school to have visibility of how bad things will or won't be at the border, and (b) French school trips being cheap so you're probably not paying a large deposit:

I'd take the risk. School will cancel if things look very bad - actually, IMO if they are going by coach, it might well be that the coach company pulls out in the worst case scenario. You'd likely get some or all of your money back.

As it is 5 weeks after B-day, I'm guessing the situation will be clearer before they leave so maybe I should check the refund policy if trip is cancelled for safety reasons.

In 2015 they cancelled a day trip to Germany just after the Bataclan etc terrorist attacks and we were all refunded. But the government ordered that trip cancellation.

The only thing I'd add is that in the event of no-deal, for a child without French nationality it would probably be a "non" from me. We don't know what visa requirements will look like for returning to the Schengen area. This is why I won't be outside France in March/April - I don't have dual nationality and I'm not planning to strand myself on the wrong side of a border.

Cross post Mistigri.
We'll have paid whole lot by 29/03 but hopefully only the deposit by the time the vote takes place.

Thanks all. It's been quite therapeutic voicing my concerns with people who get it.